bennymacca wrote:The problem, in my opinion, with any sort of system, is that it assumes you, and everybody else can consistently beat the bookies using it. If that was true every bookie would be broke. Bookies also have dozens of people whose sole job is to set odds, and if they wanted to they could also utilise these sorts of systems too or at least develop counter strategies to them
That's not how bookmaking works in Australia though. The basic business model they all follow is
1. Suck people in with free bets etc
2. Ban and restrict those who win
3. Keep giving lollies to the losers so they come back for more and get hooked
Setting competitive markets is a secondary consideration - there is little incentive for them to do much more than have people monitoring Betfair and the other bookies and just copying off the consensus odds like sheep.
They find that their money is much better spent on advertising and promotions than to invest in developing more accurate odds. The game is much easier if you are playing against idiots than if you are playing against people who know what they are doing!
Hence it isn't that hard to win in the short term, but it is hard to win in the long term as profitable accounts are usually restricted or banned - that's the easy way out for them.