by LPH » Fri Oct 28, 2016 11:12 am
29/10/2016 – Flemington Carnival: Victoria Derby Day
The BEST race day of the year IMHO – unfortunately, I am yet to get to Flemington for the Saturday Meeting (have been to a Cup Day), so that’s on the ‘bucket list’ of things to do & hopefully in the not too distant future. Plenty of great racing, some interesting results & computations for some winners & losers, this week. The debate over moving the McKinnon Stakes to next week means less acceptors remain in the Cup field for Tuesday, than is normally the case each year. The Derby itself has very interesting ‘Form Lines’ – either those that ran last week at The Valley, or those that ran the week prior in the Norman Robinson on Caulfield Cup Day. Big field, too.
Last week was somewhat disappointing in terms of results for me, but we keep ‘plugging away’…
Flemington Race 7 – Victoria Derby
All the talk has been Sacred Elixir after the win last week – which was pretty impressive, I’ll admit. The one I backed in the race, So Si Bon, was a little unlucky I thought – but that said, should’ve probably finished closer to the winner. FWIW, I think he’ll enjoy the Flemington straight far more than the short 250m Mooney Valley version. Should run the added trip & interestingly, Bowman takes the ride (2 previous rides have been on the Waller runner, Wine Bush). I took the Odds Boosted $13 on Ladbrokes, 1 x 3 Units.
The only query for me is the fact he ran last week – but considering that the favourite too ran in that race, I’m happy to risk it.
Of the others – I think Kent couldn’t have run a worse race in the Norman Robinson, so look for improvement from him at massive odds – worth a PLACE ticket at least. And the one I want to ‘save’ on is the Hawkes Team runner; No. 3 Swear. It is interesting that his last start was in Sydney where he ran well. He has the credentials to run the trip (even though he hasn’t won over further than the 7 furlongs) – he could be the ‘fresh horse’, so I’m backing him on the day; 2 x 3 Units.
Box Trifecta: 1, 2, 3, 10, 11, 13
Flemington Race 4 – The Lexus Stakes
Very intriguing race – not least of all, for who ends up in the Cup on Tuesday.
I’m putting it out there; I did warn you all about Pentathlon being a big watch last week – spewing I didn’t have a PLACE ticket on him at $9.50!!!
So, using similar logic as last week, I’m going to tip (& back for a PLACE) No. 10 Rose of Virginia in this race. She’s a real ‘Stayer’ & will get the cosiest of runs from the gate. I firmly believe she’s over the odds at $16 the PLACE – 2 Units PLACE
Bet & she’ll give us a ‘look’ at some point (fingers crossed).
In terms of a serious bet in the race – you couldn’t help but like the way Oceanographer ran home for 3rd in the Geelong Cup.
Considering he has to win the race to get in the Cup on Tuesday, he must come into calculations – some Punter had $8K on him to win the Cup @ $26 on Thursday. That’s a big risk IMHO considering he’ll have to run 3 times in 13 days if he runs in the Cup on Tuesday!
He’s too short for me in this race anyway, for me to back him – but I did like his run at Geelong.
Tom Melbourne leads & should set a reasonable pace in the race with the Waterhouse runner Hippopus right there too. The 10 should be on the fence, 2 back. I like De Little Engine at the Powered Price of $9 the win & if I can get $2.60 the Place I would be happy, 2 x 5 Units
Trifecta: 2, 7, 8 / 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 8, 10 / Field (30%) = $54
Flemington Race 5 – Coolmore Stud Stakes
What a race! Really looking forward to this – so many can win! Just look at the ‘Honour Role’ for this race over the years: Zoustar, Star Witness, Weekend Hussler, Sepoy, Alinghi, Encosta De Lago, Our Maiscay, Tierce, Kapstad, Rose of Kingston – impressive list.
This year’s edition looks very competitive - although the scratching today of Capitalist is disappointing.
Mick Price has been very ‘bullish’ in the Press, suggesting Extreme Choice will win comfortably. He tends to ‘tell it like it is’ when he talks to the Press, so you have to take that on board as a Punter. Godolphin reckon Astern is the BEST Sprinter in their yard & Star Turn has been killing his opposition comfortably this campaign. Throw in the Slipper winner Capitalist, the Blue Diamond winner Flying Artie & the unbeaten Russian Revolution & this is a ‘cracking’ race! The Flemington ‘Straight Six’ races are often tricky affairs to navigate. The smallish field doesn’t make it any easier to predict how they will run either.
Do they run down the middle of the track as a pack?
Do they split – some to the inside, others to the outside? Who leads? Who gets a ‘sit’?
All relevant & important questions to consider when tackling the race from a betting perspective.
I had backed Capitalist at the Enhanced Odds of $13 on Ladbrokes – but now he’s been scratched, I need to reconsider.
I think they’ll all come down the middle of the track, initially at least. I reckon Astern gets a bit of cover behind the leaders & should make his move about the 250m, & might just overhaul them in the last 50m of the race. If it pans out how I think, I predict they will over run Russian Revolution & he’ll miss the Place. Great Race – highlight of the Day, even without Capitalist in the field. I’m going with the Sydney Form over the Melbourne Form, so Astern to WIN for me, 4 Units. Also taking an Exacta: 3, 5/ 2 for 3 Units & a Quinella: 2, 3, 5 for 3 Units.
Box Trifecta: 2, 3, 4, 5, 7
Flemington Race 6 – The Myer Classic
Another fantastic race! First Seal won for us last start at Caulfield in the Tristarc, but that was over 1400m – I think that’s her distance, not the Mile, so I will risk her here. The Value in the race is No. 11 Denmagic at the 20/1 quote – she’ll love Flemington IMO & the extra 2 Furlongs is no problem for her. At the Price, I’m willing to have a gamble on her 1 x 5 Units. The PLACE Price is extra ‘juicy’ as I think she gets a nice run from the gate & if Berry can get her out with 300m to go, she may well run down the centre of the track & knock them all out.
Corona: I know I gave you one earlier in the week in Stratum Star (& I stand by that) but THIS one might well be the PLACE Bet of the Day. $8.50 on UBet Thursday Night – I took that, thank you very much!
Box Trifecta: 1, 4, 7, 10, 11, 14
Other Races:
MR 3 – Like No. 12 Chloe in Paris Eachway, perhaps 1 x 4 Units
MR 8 – I’ve already backed one of my fav. Horses Stratum Star at $41 Boosted – 1 x 4 Units on him too. I remain surprised that The United States is running here – I had him ‘pegged’ for next week’s Group 1s.
Quaddie Numbers:
4, 7, 10, 11 / 1, 3, 10, 13 / 1, 2, 3. 7, 9, 16 / 6, 7, 8, 9 for 17% = $ 64.28
So looking forward to the day tomorrow.
Getting home tonight to clean up the Garden, so I can get to Morphettville early & ‘stake my claim’ in the Betting Area. If you are going, come & have a beer. Enjoy the day lads – hopefully we get some money for Cup Day.
Will do a summary of the Cup on Monday Night for you - once I do the Form seriously.
Last edited by
LPH on Fri Oct 28, 2016 8:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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