04/11/2017 (Posted Wednesday 7:40pm)
It’s Derby Day – my favourite Race Day of the Year!
Now that all the Winx-hype has subsided, until next week when she likely runs in the Emirates (the Old McKinnon Stakes) @ WFA, we can enjoy the start of the Flemington Cup Carnival. As I said earlier in the week, not sure if it’s me, or has the Melbourne Cup not got the same ‘lustre’ this year?
Personally, I think the Field is below standard for the Cup this year – I can see it being a similar type year to when Shocking won it. I got the Trifecta that year & Crime Scene @ $15 the Place, so I hope if I’m right, a similar result will ensue in 2017 & I will get some added ‘coin’ for my European Adventure in Jan/Feb.
But before that, we need to get some money on Saturday!
Flemington –
MR 7 The Victoria DerbyOnce again, when assessing the form for this race, One must compare the ‘Sydney Form’ to that of the ‘Melbourne Form’. I said a couple of weeks ago that
Sully was my pick for the race. I was reasonably impressed with the 3rd in the Spring Champion Stakes @ Randwick – it was the one running on toward the end of the 2000m.
That said,
Tangled ran a good race for 2nd & backed it up with an equally good 2nd @ Caulfield behind last week’s winner Cliff’s Edge – Waller has to be respected & I fancy Tangled is a genuine contender in the race. The winner of the Spring Champion,
Ace High, is the favourite for the race but I’m willing to risk it – both the Price & the fact it hasn’t run ‘left-handed’. It does get the ‘gun run’ from the Gate & reckon it runs Top 5 but too short (as always) for me.
I do like a ‘roughy’ in the race, Craig William’s mount, # 10 –
Justice Faith.
It’s only win was 2 starts back @ Kyneton over 1875m & ran 6th in the Geelong Classic BUT, in it’s 2nd last prep @ Flemington over 1800m it came from the back, to run within 2 ½ lengths of the winner (interestingly ridden by Williams). I expect that it will be running on in the last Furlong, so at the $11 Place @ Ladbrokes, it’s worth a Place ticket.
Sticking with
Sully at the enhanced $10 & $2.70 –
2 x 5 Units; afraid of
Tangled, backing it the
Win only, Powered $8 for
5 Units,
Place ticket on
Justice Faith –
3 Units.
Box Trifecta: 1, 2, 3, 6, 10
Flemington –
MR 4 The LexusNo doubt Spargo is hoping the Geelong Cup winner
Vengeur Masque wins the race & definitely gets into the Cup field on Tuesday. Personally, I don’t think he’ll win this race – but could still get a run Tuesday through natural attrition. Very interesting race for a number of reasons; obviously the ‘prize’ of a Cup place, the speed/tempo of the race (reckon
Equador leads with Aloft) & the number of runs leading up to this race – 2 runners are 4th up, 3 are 5th up, 2 are 6th up. I like the 2 down the bottom;
Alward &
Kellstorm. McEvoy won this race last year, with the winner coming out of the Geelong Cup.
Kellstorm ran in that race this year, whilst Waller’s runner ran 2nd in Sydney. Can see
Kellstorm as the one finishing the race off best & at the Powered $10 & $2.70, he’ll do me –
3 x 7 Units.
Trifectas: 4,9/ 4,9/ Field; 4,10/ 4,10/ Field; 9,10/ 9,10/ Field
Flemington –
MR 2 The Wakeful StakesA race for 3 yr old Fillies is always a difficult proposition for any Punter - so many variables in terms of how they are ‘mentally’ on the day, not to mention in running. I think the McEvoy runner
Bring Me Roses is a false favourite here – she won @ $17 last start in the Edward Manifold & she’s posted @ around 3/1 for this race. Admittedly she won well in that race but the price is way ‘Unders’ IMHO.
I must admit I’m a ‘bit bullish’ about the Mick Price runner
Hiyaam for this race.
She’s proven at the distance, having run 3rd in the Ethereal last start & if you look at the price differential between it & the favourite (having run 2nd to Bring Me Roses), the
$9.50 boosted & $2.70 the Place is a better bet than the fav. McEvoy (the Kerrin variety) is finding form again – did he ever lose it? I concede a winning chance to his mount
Rimraam & I am always wary of Darren Weir, so have to throw in
Teodora. Backing
Hiyaam 3 x 7 Units.
Trifectas: 5,6/ 5,6/ Field; 5,10/ 5,10/ Field; 6,10/ 6,10/ Field
Flemington –
MR 6 The Myer ClassicLast year I backed Denmagic in this race – ran 3rd @ 60/1 (isn’t it funny how we always remember the odd ‘winner’ but easily forget the MANY losers?). Not sure I can find one at that sort of price THIS year but I do like
Dixie Blossoms @ $15 Powered & the $3.80 the Place is very good – might get $4 on the day. She’s been running really well in Sydney (superior form lines?) for the 1 win & that was over the Mile – clearly her best distance. Wary of
Silent Sedition &
Global Glamor. Happy to back my judgement here –
Dixie Blossoms 3 x 7 Units.
Trifectas: 3,5/ 3,5/ Field; 3,8/ 3,8/ Field; 5,8/ 5,8/ Field
Flemington – MR 5 The Coolmore Stud Stakes
If you are thinking of gambling on the Outside fence being the ‘fast lane’ – this is not usually the case at the beginning of the Carnival, but by Thursday & certainly by the final day, it is. I’m looking for something in the middle of the field that gets some cover behind other horses, then gets out over the last furlong & a half.
The value runner is
Merchant Navy.
He ‘flopped’ in Sydney, having gone there unbeaten. Mark Zahra has been in ripping form this season thus far & it has been backed early in the week - $21 to $15. I’m happy with the
boosted $26 & love the current $5.50 the Place on Ladbrokes. He’ll do me,
1 x 4 Units.
So, there you go Lads - early this week & looking for some nice collects.
I said last year I won’t return to Morphettville, so I’m looking for a good venue to spend the day –
any suggestions?Enjoy the Day, lets hope we get some cash to ‘blow’ on Tuesday.