Preview Posted 10:00pm Thursday 22/03/2018
Saturday 24/03/2018
A better result last week – no winners but a few well-placed Place Bets help the ‘Bank’ look a bit healthier.
The RAIN appears to have come in Sydney & looks to be continuing until Saturday. This will undoubtedly impact any outlays One might take this week. It would be prudent to wait until the Day to make any investments. But that is not what I am here for, is it?
So, let’s have a ‘Captain’ at this week’s Fields…
Sydney R7 –
The Golden SlipperAs always, this is a very difficult race. Any 2 yr old race is difficult to assess. Personally, I don’t believe a 2 yr old race should carry such a big ‘purse’ – but it does.
I have followed ‘Practical Punting’ for many years & I have been a ‘disciple’ of
The Optimist during this time – particularly in Sydney Racing. He was/is a firm believer that at Rosehill over 1200m, Horses rarely win from outside Gate 10. This is true for a Dry Track, but I am not so sure in Wet Ground, but I will ‘run with it’. Remembering that 2 of the Emergencies are drawn between 1 & 10, that brings No 12
Oohood & No 15
Seabrook into the ‘mix’. That leaves: 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 10, 12, 14, 15
Written By is the clear favourite, despite being on ‘the wrong leg’ last week in his narrow victory. Having watched the 2 x Races together (TAB had them split screened) from last week, the Colts were quicker. That said, only 3 horses in history have won the Pago Pago/Golden Slipper Double – the last being a ‘Mud Runner’ Phelan Ready (2009) & before him Stratum (2005). Interestingly,
Written By is the ONLY runner to have run on a Heavy & he won that. Definitely a PLACE Bet @ the $2 on Thursday.
A wise man once told me, many years ago, “A good Colt will beat a good Filly, every time.” He did so in 1991 when
Tierce won the race. I applied this strategy the following year &
Burst (a filly) won the race!
So much for that strategy.
I don’t really like the race this year, I think it’s really hard. I was a fan of Spin, having backed it last week – don’t think he’ll get a run & his Gate is bad anyway. If I am prepared to back him, then I must be prepared to take the Skyline winner
No 2 Santos, having beaten Spin, 2 weeks ago. Ticks the Jockey, Trainer & Gate ‘boxes’. He also has won a TRAIL on Heavy Ground, at the
$12 Powered & $3.30 Place, happy to ‘have a play’ 2 x 5 Units, with a saver on the fav.
Backing:
Santos 2 x 5 Units,
Written By 3 Units Place (@ Evens or Better)
Pick 4: 1, 2, 3 / 1, 2, 3 / Field / Field (
2%)
Sydney R8 –
The GalaxyReally want to back a long shot & proven ‘Mud Lark’ here in
No 1 Le Romain.
He’s placed 16 of 21 starts including 2-3-0 from 6 starts on the Heavy & 3 placings from 3 on the Soft.
He is 1st Up, but he’s placed 5 from 5 1st Up, with 2 x wins. He’ll do me – already got him
$34 Enhanced on Ladbrokes & $5.50 Place on UBET. Happy to get all over him 1 x 5 Units & might even back up more on the Day.
Backing:
Le Romain 1 x 5 Units
Sydney R4 –
The Ranvet StakesI said 2 weeks ago that I though
The Taj Mahal would be very competitive in this race & I still think that. Having said that I want to back 2 horses in the race, it &
Ventura Storm.
Ventura Storm ran really well (better than expected IMHO) in the Australian Cup to be narrowly beaten into 3rd – he was the ‘run on’ horse in the race & he loves Soft Ground, having won 3 from 5. He’s good value @ $17 Enhanced & the $3.40 is acceptable the Place too. Backing him 1 x 5 Units. Sticking with Taj, but concede his form on Wet going is questionable & he is a risk.
Gallo Chop loves the wet but he’s under the Odds IMHO – never going to take Odds On with him. He’s an under-performer in a similar vain to Tom Melbourne IMHO, I can’t have him.
Backing:
Ventura Storm 1 x 5 Units &
The Taj Mahal 4 Win Units.
Trifecta: 2, 8 / 2, 8 / 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9 (
150%)
Sydney R6 –
The Rosehill GuineasWOW, what a race this is! It is so difficult to pick a winner, with many chances. That should be good for us, as the prices should be decent – it’s about $5 the Field on Thursday night, with only 4 runners under Double Figures! That bodes well for us.
Ace High ran a very good 4th in the Randwick Guineas last start & he looks on track for the ATC Derby.
I am prepared to risk him in this race because his Wet Track form is ordinary. I concede if the track rating improves on the day, then he can win, but as I write this, I can’t have him. There are a few Kiwi visitors in the race & they always seem to go well at this Carnival. The best of them looks to be
No 2 Vin De Dance, having won their Derby over there, but $6? Not for me. The Kiwi runner ‘on the rise’ looks to be
No 19 Mongolian Marshal, I could entertain a small wager on him for ‘entertainment value’.
Cliff’s Edge ran beautifully last Friday night, spanking his opposition. Can he back up? Time will tell, but again, in such an open race, he’s short enough @ 6/1. As always, Waller holds the key to a race like this, with so many runners: 6, 8 10, 11, 16.
The speed map suggests
Cliff’s Edge leads, with Ace High pushing forward, with Vin De Dance & Mission Hill handy. If Cliff’s Edge gets a ‘soft’ lead in front, they might not be able to catch him in the straight. I’m thinking that perhaps the ‘run on’ horses might find it difficult to run down the leaders in the race, unless they go ‘crazy’ up front (doubtful). With this in mind, I don’t think
Kaonic can win under these conditions.
I do think the Melbourne horse
Villermont may well get the run of the race, just behind the speed. Blake Shin in the seat is a BIG Bonus for it, so at the Powered $17 & the $4 Place, I’ll take him 1 x 5 Units & I’ll back Cliff’s Edge, 4 Units Win, to hang on.
Backing:
Cliff’s Edge Win 4 Units,
Villermont 1 x 5 Units.
Box Trifecta: 1, 4, 8, 9, 13, 19 (
35%)
Melbourne R7 –
The Mornington CupThe winner of this race gets Ballot Exemption into the Caulfield Cup, later in the year.
The Weir runner
Kings will Dream is the ‘shorty’ here. With his 5 straight wins, including 4 this preparation, the short quote of 6/4 is unsurprising, but I can’t take him. The Top Weight ran in the Caulfield Cup last year, running 4th but carried only 50kgs, a massive 10 kgs less than in this race!
Another Weir runner
Bondeiger, is certainly worth entertaining a Bet. He’s won his last 3 starts, including the Launceston Cup. He’s going to get a cosy run near the back of the field & you know he’ll run on. 7/1 is short enough, but if we could get $10, I’d back him E/Way.
I’ve settled on the Lloyd Williams horse,
No 12 Harrison.
He buys Overseas Horses specifically for the Cups. With the prize of an automatic entry into the Caulfield Cup, who is to doubt that this one can’t beat a pretty weak field here. I take a ‘lead’ from the scratching of stablemate Foundry & am prepared the back him 1 out @ the $17 & $4.60 on UBET.
Backing:
Harrison 1 x 4 Units.
There we are Lads, another hopeful Assessment of the GG’s.
Enjoy what should be a fantastic Day’s Racing, despite the expected Wet Track.
Oakbank next week…