Multi bets

[beeroclock]

Both I reckon.
Although any multi can go in here still obviously
For tomorro I've gone Miami win into qld -2.5. @ $5.99
I know it doesn't compare but

Come on Johno6 we want a five leg minimum.
Good luck anyways.

[mighty_tiger_79]

is rhat a new rule?

Min 5 legged multis??

[OnSong]

Ok kents, bit risky with North Melbourne's line, perhaps I should have gone the other way but it's all in the name of a challenge hey?!

[beeroclock]

I put a multi on the Drip Challenge page which probably wasn't warranted there.
So here is a multi page for punters to bare all.
Look forward to seeing some big winners with a bit of luck.
5 leg multi to be the standard.
Happy punting.

5 leg multi the standard.
Early one.
Qld to win $1.92.
Carlton +24.5.
Crows -14.5.
Gws + 57.5.
Bulldogs to win $1.43.
Invest $10.
Potential collect $188.32.

[beeroclock]

Looking down the barrel now.
16-6.

[The Ash Man]

West Coast -24
Hawthorn -48
Adelaide -16
Bulldogs

$10 @ $10.37

[The Ash Man]

Anyone ever looked at footyforecast.com?

Quite interesting

[mighty_tiger_79]

Anyone ever looked at footyforecast.com?

Quite interesting

have now

thanks for the link

[OnSong]

Anyone ever looked at footyforecast.com?

Quite interesting

have now

thanks for the link

Another handy site I stumbled on was this: http://www.astutebetting.com/sports/aussie-rules

I was reading up on betting on the draw.

"There has been a draw once every 95 games in more than a century history of the VFL/AFL.
However, this varies greatly between each club. Below I have listed how often a draw occurs for each Club, these are sorted from the most frequent to least frequent.

Brisbane Lions 54
University 63
Essendon 69
Carlton 72
Fitzroy 77
Western Bulldogs 80
Port Adelaide 80
Collingwood 93
St Kilda 95
Sydney 101
Richmond 103
North Melbourne 104
Geelong 106
Melbourne 111
Brisbane Bears 111
West Coast 112
Hawthorn 177
Adelaide 459
Fremantle No Draws

Now let’s remember that for a long time the bookies offered odds of $51; the TAB virtually still keeps it at this price.
That means that there is no club, not even a particular decade in history that you would have made a profit on backing the draw! The odds are ridiculous low.
Granted, there are now some corporate bookies that will now pay $61 or $67 on a draw, however this is still very low.


I used the line market that the bookies were offering as this seems a reasonable way to judge the pre game perception of how close the match was likely to be.
I compared in various brackets of the line market how often the draw would occur per games when prices in that bracket were offered.

The result below astounded me!



Points Line Margin Bracket Occurance
0 to 6 - 31
6.5 to 15 - 164
15.5 to 24 - 165
24.5 to 36 - 63
36.5+ - 111

Quite clearly when the bookies offered a line of a goal or less, i.e. they thought the match was fairly evenly balanced, a draw occurred far more regularly.

Therefore, there are two ways whereby betting on the draw where you can have an edge:

1. If you want to back a draw, do so on matches where the bookies are offering a line of under a goal.
2. For all other games you should avoid backing, or say jump onto one of the exchanges and lay the draw off at say under $70 a match. You will be more slightly competitive than the bookies, but theoretically have the value on your side. The major problem with this is there is often a lack of liquidity in the draw market - laying off every single AFL game at that price would be very difficult!"


Great tip!

[mighty_tiger_79]

and double up on the draw bet with a small line on games involving adelaide and freo

[OnSong]

The Collingwood Geelong game had the draw at $51 but brought it in to $41 as the match neared.

[beeroclock]

Start again.
Carlton + 23.5
Crows - 14.5
GWS + 58.5
Bully's win
Kangas 25 +
Invest $10
Potential return $147.12

[Reverse Torp]

Adelaide 1-39 $2.15
Gold coast H2H $6
Hawks 40-49 points $7.80
Broncos H2H $1.92
Storm H2H $2.15

Div = 415/1

Only $1 on as an interest bet

[The Ash Man]

West Coast -24 Bad kicking is bad footy
Hawthorn -48
Adelaide -16
Bulldogs

$10 @ $10.37

[The Ash Man]

Anyone ever looked at footyforecast.com?

Quite interesting

have now

thanks for the link

Thats actually the wrong one!!

Try

http://footyforecaster.com/AFL/

[The Chump is here...]

Normally do a 10 leg multi on a Friday, to try and keep me interested over the weekend.

All H2H

AFL
Crows
Tigers
Hawks
Power
Kangaroos

NRL
Broncos
Bulldogs
Warriors
Rabbitos

Tiger Woods to win US Open

$10 @ $169.90

[The Chump is here...]

For a big return mates and I normally have a crack at First Goal kicker into Exact point margin. i gues thats why you get a big return if it comes off.

i.e. Jarrod Petrenko @ $17 into Crows by 27-28pts @ $26

A mate got State of Origin game one First Try Scorer into exact point margin, put 5 on and returne $880

[Ron Burgundy]

im going to have a crack

StK 15+
Rich 60+
Central
Norwood
West Tigers 13+
Mel Storm +12.5

Odds 46.59

[Mythical Creature]

This weeks multi - Only a 5 legger

Western Bulldogs 40+ @ 3.50
Brisbane @ 1.92 (+50.5)
North Melbourne 1-39 @ 2.40
Richmond 40+ @ 1.35
St Kilda @ 1.92 (+11.5)

Multibet @ 41.80

Put another fiver on it.

[OnSong]

Hawks highest score of round $3.50
Adelaide 1-39 $2.10
Richmond 40+ $1.33
Port Adelaide +10.5 $2.10

@ $20.52