2008 predictions for the SANFL in 2027, two years on

[PhilH]

Phils Note - In January 2008, for the 2008 SA FOOTBALL MEDIA GUIDE I wrote this piece looking forward to predict what the SANFL would look like in 2027.

Two years on I thought I would share and see what has come true (Gold Coast & West Sydney franchises were yet to be announced by the AFL, Port Magpies in trouble) and what was badly off the mark (just about everything else).


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The last 30 years has seen dramatic change in South Australian Football.

One wonders what the next few decades will lead to, especially for the best state league in the nation. Well here is what one very murky crystal ball revealed.


Dateline – Saturday October 1st 2027

It’s taken over 60 years but South Adelaide’s day of destiny had finally arrived.

Today at NANZB Stadium in West Lakes, Adelaide the Panthers are playing in the 2027 AFA National Championship Game against the National Division Champions Cairns Cyclones.

It is ironic that in the AFA’s 150th year they are not only representing the South Australian Division from which the AFA was formed but they wear the very same navy blue & white colours that they did back in 1877 when they claimed the inaugural premiership in SANFL/AFA history.

Whilst the main game is not until 8pm, the day starts early at 3pm with the 3rd place playoff between the Western Australian Division champions Peel Thunder and Victorian Division champions Mildura Meteors (named after the town narrowly missed being hit by one in 2011)

As had been tradition since the AFA’s inception in 2020, the “big week in October” is being held in Adelaide, a recognition of the historic roots of this competition.

The 38 team, 4 division, truly national AFA seems such a long way from what the SANFL was in 2009, a 9 team local league based around Adelaide.

Looking back, the first tentative step to this change was in 2010 when the Northern Territory Buffaloes finally entered the SANFL expanding the competition interstate for the first time.

The first few years revealed some teething problems. The Buffaloes had talent and skill to match anyone and they thrilled the large crowds that came to Darwin & Alice Sprints to back them. However their trips down south often resulted in large losses as the more experienced and physical SANFL clubs used the colder conditions to their advantages.

However adjustments were made, then in 2014, under the coaching of former crow champion Andrew McLeod the Buffaloes did the impossible, not only making the finals but claiming the SANFL premiership defeating Central District to take the cup north of the border.

Whilst some SANFL traditionalists bemoaned they loss of local prestige, the result raised the profile of the competition nationwide and paved the way for even further expansion.

At the time state league football in South Australia was undergoing somewhat of a renaissance. When petrol prices hit $3 a litre in 2011 people were forced to look locally for their entertainment and the SANFL at just $12 for an adult entry provided exceptional value for money.

Assistance also came from an unexpected source in 2012, newly elected Premier Nick Xenophon. As per his election campaign Xenophon moved to ban all gaming machines in the state but had to settle for a ban in hotels with many machines being transferred to community groups, such as SANFL clubs.

This gave SANFL sides extensive income which they used not only to increase the salary cap relative to other state leagues but importantly employ five star players full time to work in their local communities for the sole purpose of building their profiles, promoting the competition and boosting attendances.

It also provided the league clubs the income to funds the extra travel expenses that an expanded competition was about to bring.

Meanwhile at the national level the AFL which had for so long saturated the football market has issues of its own.

It had reached 18 teams by 2011 with the joint introduction of the Gold Coast Sharks and West Sydney Warriors. Whilst this boosted national profile, its heartland state Victoria was suffering. The Vic’s 20 goal belting by the “Dream Team” in the one off 2008 All Star Game outlined just how the football world had changed.

The AFL also continued to be dominated by SA & WA teams especially the Power who won a hat trick of flags 2008-2010 and Fremantle even won the title in 2011 & 2013. Combined with a Crows premiership in 2012 and Swans in 2014, Geelong’s effort in 2007 was now a distant memory for Victorian football fans.

One core issue was the lack of a strong second tier competition for the eastern state teams. When the AFL restructured the VFL in 2009 and made it more an Victorian AFL reserves competition plus Tasmania, things didn’t much improve as AFL kids unable to get a senior game were still playing kids unable to get a senior game, unlike the SANFL & WAFL which had fringe AFL players diluted more freely into a matches played by men. This was an issue that would to come to a head by the end of the decade.

On a wider scale the success of the Soccerroos to reach the World Cup semi finals in 2010 led to a rapid expansion of the A League to 12 teams and combined with overseas opportunities, Aussie Rules was struggling to remain the football code of choice for upcoming athletes.

A critical junction was reached in 2014 when the AFL received a massive $4 billion TV rights offer from Foxtel for the next 8 years. Only catch was all games were to screen exclusively on Pay Television except for the finals which was all the Federal Government would protect under its anti siphoning legislation.

What made it too hard to refuse was the take it or leave it nature of the offer. Without Foxtel as a partner, the free to air combination bid by Seven and Ten proved 30% less than the previous deal struck.

Faced with the ultimate money or the box dilemma, the AFL took the cash and thus denied free TV access to many of its “financially challenged” fans.

There was now a niche for another league to fill this void but how would it happen?

In 2015, Andrew Jarman’s appointment as SANFL Executive Commissioner was at first laughed at in some quarters much like when he was appointed North coach in 1995.

But as per his time coaching the Roosters, which he took to a premiership in 2010, Jars soon showed that he had a serious side and he proved in the years ahead both a very public figurehead and a strong negotiator for South Australian Football.

His first move was to capitalise of the lack of football on free to air TV. He quickly did a deal with the Nine Network that greatly enhanced the leagues profile, income and attendances in South Australia.

This was assisted by some rule changes that differentiated the game from the AFL. These included disallowing marks for backwards kicks, permanently introducing the 9pt supergoal and giving a bonus premiership point for any team that scores 20 goals in a game.

Jarman also led a SANFL study trip to the US and noted how college sports, especially gridiron and basketball were extremely popular despite being second tier to NFL & NAB. They introduced many of these promotions and fun concepts to game day presentations.

By now other state league clubs around the nation looked on with envy at what was happening in SA and NT and they sought ways to join the action.

At first it was the reserves teams from non Victorian AFL sides that led the way. Fed up with trashing locals in the NSW/ACT league the Swans, and Warriors sough entry in 2015 and given the AFL’s desperate need to have successful NSW teams to satisfy Foxtel, they were granted it to commence in 2016.

As an aside the Warriors already had strong SANFL links anyway for with Malcolm Blight as president, he introduced the green & gold colours and a logo not unlike Woodville’s in 1982.

One year later in 2017 the Brisbane Lions & Gold Coast Sharks reserves soon followed. The league had 14 sides but was still very top heavy in SA clubs.

Indeed, 2017 proved one of the most revolutionary years in South Australia Football History, at least so far.

At this point the SANFL announced the radical move of changing its name to the Australian Football Association (AFA) from 2018 onwards.

With a new name, Jarman also issued a new vision for the competition not just to be the best second tier competition in Aussie Rules but to be so far in front that all other state leagues would be considered third tier.

It was an official declaration of war against other state leagues which had been unofficially occurring since the WAFL and SANFL first fought over having the NT side join in 2008.

The Tassie Devils saw these developments and decided to defect from the AFL reserves competition and join the AFA from 1918.

In the same year expansion within SA was also required as the stunning population growth along the South Coast from Victor Harbor to Port Elliott & Goolwa demanded a team. Thus the Fleurieau Falcons were born, to be based at an upgraded Encounter Bay Oval.

If 2017 was a year of change, it was nothing compared with what 2018 would bring.

Starting in 2018 the AFA now had 16 teams, 6 from outside of South Australia.

This interstate expansion allowed for a bigger TV deal with Nine in which now had a competition to broadcast across 4 states and NT. They heavily supported the AFA’s expansion and promoted the competition in these markets, especially as they were up against Sevens support of the WAFL and Tens coverage of the AFL reserves.

But by this stage the battle of the state leagues was all but won.

Firstly submissions from Cairns and Canberra were received in March as these regions realised they were unlikely to ever have an AFL side in their city and the AFA offered a way for them to be involved in the next best thing.

Now sick of being just a site for exhibition games they wanted a team they could call their own.

Then in May 2018, WAFL powerhouses Subiaco & South Fremantle both applied to join. This caused a massive disruption in the west, a move that would shortly pale into insignificance when Collingwood under long term president Eddie McGuire announced it wanted to play it’s AFL reserves side in the AFA so the club would receive exclusive coverage by the Nine Network in Melbourne.

It was not lost on many veteran commentators that the two most revolutionary changes in SA Football were sparked by Magpie sides looking for greener grass with interstate competitions.

The Collingwood announcement caused chaos in Melbourne, which led to legal threats and the possibility of court action by the AFL & Network Ten, until the AFA and AFL agreed to an “Australian Football Conference” in July to work through a plan going forward for the second tier competition.

The conference was scheduled to run three days and ended up taking almost a week but by its end a remarkable restructure was agreed to.

In essence the AFL recognised the AFA as the second tier league for the sport and in return the AFA was to incorporate the current WAFL and Victorian reserves clubs in its competition along with new sides from Canberra & Cairns.

Commencing 2020 the AFA would be made up of 38 clubs, spread across 4 divisions

SA Division – 10 clubs, 9 as per 2008 plus Fleurieau Falcons (admitted 2018)
WA Division – 10 clubs, 9 as per 2008 plus Bunbury Buccaneers (admitted 2016)
National Division – 8 clubs – Brisbane, Gold Coast, Sydney & West Sydney reserves, plus NT, Tasmania, Canberra & Cairns.
Victorian Division – 10 clubs, all aligned to Victorian AFL sides

Organisationally the AFA would be based in South Australia run by what was previously the SANFL, who would also form a separate group to coordinate the SA Division. The WAFL would run the WA Division whilst the AFL would appoint committees to run the National & Victorian leagues.

Whilst all divisions would come under the same rules and sponsors, each division was responsible for managing its own competition and derive a champion.

Those four division champions would then come together to play off for a national title.

To save travel costs there would be no inter-divisional games during the premiership but there would be a national mid week knock out tournament to be played Wednesday Nights.

Broadcast wise the Nine network would have coverage of the premiership but Network Ten would cover the mid week knock out cup games.

This conference achieved three more key concessions out of the AFL.

Firstly the AFL agreed to restructure its national draft so by 2022 only one under 18 year old could be picked per club.

This showed a good balance between allowing obvious champions like Carlton’s two time Brownlow winner Bryce Gibbs the chance to play as early as possible but giving “average” young potential players a year of reality out of school to learn life skills and develop

This was important for the AFA as it allowed many young players developed at their club a chance to reach & play A Grade level before being drafted.

It was also good for the AFL as many drafted players now came into the competition with senior AFA experience and an understanding of the “real world” after a year out of school.

Secondly the AFL agreed to play only one of its nine games on a Saturday afternoon, virtually giving this traditional time slot to the AFA. It allowed the AFA to gain national media exposure at that time to focus on the second tier comp much like how College Gridiron in the US is played on Saturday and the professional NFL on Sunday.

Finally the AFL agreed that each year the semi finals, 3rd place playoff & championships game would be held in Adelaide each year much like how the AFL Grand Final is always at the MCG.

The AFA in turn brought the SA Tourism Office on board and together they aimed to turn that week between the semis and championship game into a “festival of football’ involving players and supporters from around the country capturing the “end of season trip” market.

A massive 20/20 competition was formed open to every amateur, suburban & country team in the country to participate in. Built on the highly successful rules formed by the local Happy Valley club in 2007 the grand final was to be played on championship day at NANZB Stadium.

Premiership teams from around Australia were also invited to take part in two parades, one down King William Street with the AFA finalists the Friday before the championship game, the other in front of 50,000 at half time of the match itself.

These promotions proved most successful, visitor numbers during the “festival” rivaling that of the arts fringe or annual V8 motor race.

Just a sidelight on the stadium, firstly it was renamed NANZB after the NAB & ANZ banks merged in 2021.

After years of access issues it was revitalized when the AFA joined forces with the state government and the West Lakes Megamart in 2023 to set up a train line to the venue.

The state government sold for housing, the railway corridor to Grange south of Albert Park. It used those funds to duplicate the line from Woodville to Albert Park then extended it alongside West Lakes Boulevard past Frederick Road where like the Sydney Olympic Park it split into an underground loop around the stadium. Patrons alighted via a multiplatform station built underneath the Megamart car park on the western side of the ground. The league & Megamart contributed by giving up land for the loop and paying for the stations construction.

When opened in 2026, patrons soon discovered that could get a non-stop express service back to the city in 15 minutes and even take direct trains that would have them at Mitcham in 25 minutes, Marion & Salisbury in 30 minutes, Elizabeth in 40 minutes & Noarlunga in one hour.

When not used for the football the West Lakes line also proved a boom bringing shoppers to the Megamart during the week.

As for 2027, Norwood who had run into difficulties with the City of Dunstan (merger of Kensington, Payneham, St Peters, Walkeville & Prospect councils) over the use of Norwood Oval in 2021 played the first league games at their new Golden Grove headquarters. They finished out of the division playoffs but made it to the semi finals of the mid week competition, knocked out by eventual winner Glenelg.

The Eagles finished fourth but created history when 25 year old rover Sam Herden claimed the Magarey Medal, the clubs first since the 1990 merger.

The Port Magpies also made history but not the sort they wanted. Winning just three games they were handed their first wooden spoon since 1900. The success of the AFL Power has steadily erorded the Magpies once mighy supporter base and steps will need to be taken to ensure it’s future in the AFA.

However the story of 2027 was South Adelaide who led by the “Sampson Trio” all sons of former club legend Clay Sampson had been the frontrunners for most of the season.

Having claimed the minor premiership they firstly accounted for Sturt in the Second Semi Final by 9 goals.

Their biggest test was to be two weeks later in the SA Division final against West Adelaide, the Bloods coming off not just two SA Division Titles but the AFA Championship in 2026.

In a tight battle the Panthers prevailed by just 13 points. The Championship Semi Final against Mildura proved an easier affair South getting up by almost 14 goals. The will start strong favourites against the Cyclones

If all goes to plan the only concern for Panther fans will be getting to the post match party. Another long line of traffic is predicted on the road to Noarlunga given the Southern Expressway, long promised to be dual carriageway, will still be running in the wrong direction after the match.

Some things never change.

[godoubleblues]

good article, and fun

I just need to remember to not visit Mildura any time in 2011

[Baron Greenback]

That was great! Good work Phil!

[Sojourner]

Nice work Phil - I think your words about Foxtel may prove to be chillingly prophetic mate!

[prowling panther]

Good reporting Phil, but didn't Sam Herden have to stand out of football for 12 months because of salary cap rorting the year following his Magarey medal win.

I was very much against the VFL entering another national competition, however it was the best results for a second tier football competition to be truly national.