Close percentages

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Close percentages

Postby spell_check » Sun May 23, 2010 12:16 am

Currently there is just 0.0093 separating 2nd and 3rd on the League ladder. Lets have a look at other occasions where there have been clubs level on points and less than 0.01 % separating them:

Round 2 1932
(Position, Team, W, L, D, F, A, %, Points)
(6) West 0 2 - 130 154 45.7746 0 (0.0020)
(7) Norwood 0 2 - 157 186 45.7726 0

Round 1 1949
(2) Norwood 1 0 - 106 67 61.2717 2 (0.0041)
(3) Torrens 1 0 - 87 55 61.2676 2
(6) Sturt 0 1 - 55 87 38.7324 0 (0.0041)
(7) West 0 1 - 67 106 38.7283 0

Round 5 1956
(4) North 2 3 - 443 448 49.7194 4 (0.0064)
(5) Norwood 2 3 - 433 438 49.7130 4

Round 19 1969
(4) North 13 6 - 1806 1553 53.7660 26 (0.0044)
(5) Torrens 13 6 - 1858 1598 53.7616 26

Round 2 1974
(2) Glenelg 3 1 - 555 434 56.1173 6 (0.0076)
(3) Norwood 3 1 - 450 352 56.1097 6

Round 6 1988
(7) West 2 4 - 568 692 45.0794 4 (0.0028)
(8) Sturt 2 4 - 618 753 45.0766 4

Round 4 1989
(5) Port 2 2 - 377 388 49.2810 4 (0.0099)
(6) Glenelg 2 2 - 338 348 49.2711 4

Round 11 2002
(7) North 3 6 - 749 1027 42.1734 6 (0.0068)
(8) South 3 7 - 724 993 42.1666 6

Round 9 2010
(2) Eagles 5 3 - 803 722 52.6557 6 (0.0093)
(3) Glenelg 5 3 - 746 671 52.6464 6

Note however the 2002 match had an uneven amount of matches played, so this latest occurance ranks the 9th closest percentage difference between clubs level on points and matches played. It is also the 2nd latest in a season for two teams to be this close; behind the 1969 instance.

On a side note, there has actually been a time where two teams were level on points for and against; aside from an opening round draw. There was one point separating the teams, so it doesn't make the above list:

Round 5 1924
(4) South 3 2 - 349 311 52.88 6
(5) Norwood 2 2 1 349 311 52.88 5
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Re: Close percentages

Postby robranisgod » Sun May 23, 2010 1:44 am

spell_check wrote:Round 19 1969
(4) North 13 6 - 1806 1553 53.7660 26 (0.0044)
(5) Torrens 13 6 - 1858 1598 53.7616 26



I remember this instance vividly. In round 19 North had played Torrens at Thebarton. If North had won they would have sewn up 4th place (remember in those days it was a final four). Torrens won by about 20 points to set up a fascinating last round. North had to play Sturt at Unley - no mean feat in those days - and Torrens had to play Port at Alberton - normally a herculean task, but this was Port's worst year in decades. They were already out of the race. Torrens won, North lost so Torrens finished fourth having won something like their last 11 games. They were just about favourites for the flag, but they then drew with West after leading by about 6 goals and then lost the replay. I would be interested what the crowds were at the round 19 Thebby match and the first semi and replay. Torrens seemed to have a massive following back then.
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Re: Close percentages

Postby spell_check » Sun May 23, 2010 5:02 pm

The matches were:

Round 19 1969
Torrens 4.1 12.7 13.11 19.13 (127)
North 4.3 9.5 12.7 16.10 (106)
Thebarton, 16352

Round 20 1969
Torrens 3.2 8.6 12.14 16.15 (111)
Port 3.1 5.2 8.5 9.10 (64)
Alberton, 14920

1st Semi Final 1969
West 5.2 8.3 10.6 11.10 (76)
Torrens 2.3 4.9 7.14 10.16 (76)
Adelaide, 28349

1st Semi Final Replay 1969
West 3.2 5.3 10.7 13.11 (89)
Torrens 5.2 6.4 7.7 10.8 (68)
Adelaide, 26315
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Re: Close percentages

Postby robranisgod » Sun May 23, 2010 7:54 pm

spell_check wrote:The matches were:

Round 19 1969
Torrens 4.1 12.7 13.11 19.13 (127)
North 4.3 9.5 12.7 16.10 (106)
Thebarton, 16352

Round 20 1969
Torrens 3.2 8.6 12.14 16.15 (111)
Port 3.1 5.2 8.5 9.10 (64)
Alberton, 14920

1st Semi Final 1969
West 5.2 8.3 10.6 11.10 (76)
Torrens 2.3 4.9 7.14 10.16 (76)
Adelaide, 28349

1st Semi Final Replay 1969
West 3.2 5.3 10.7 13.11 (89)
Torrens 5.2 6.4 7.7 10.8 (68)
Adelaide, 26315


How good were the last two minor round games crowds, especially the Torrens vs North game. Not bad for two clubs who weren't in the so called big 4. On second thoughts they probably were in 1969. The finals crowds were perhaps a little disappointing, but I guess Westies did always struggle to have much of a following.
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Re: Close percentages

Postby Interceptor » Sun May 23, 2010 9:37 pm

What's the smallest percentage margin that a side has missed the finals by?
For both final 4 and 5 if possible.
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Re: Close percentages

Postby spell_check » Sun May 23, 2010 10:10 pm

Final Four:
Torrens - 0.16% 1958
Norwood - 0.39% 1936
Norwood - 0.64% 1911
Norwood - 0.83% 1970
Sturt - 1.08% 1927
North - 1.27% 1955
Port - 1.37% 1922
North - 2.36% 1965
South - 3.45% 1924

Final Five:
Eagles - 1.25% 1998
West - 1.86% 1982
Central - 2.58% 1973
Sturt - 3.05% 1981
North - 3.56% 1979
Central - 4.32% 1976
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Re: Close percentages

Postby fish » Tue May 25, 2010 11:31 pm

Just out of interest - what would happen if 5th and 6th had the exact same percentage and points scored for and against at the end of the minor round? Who would advance to the finals?
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Re: Close percentages

Postby am Bays » Wed May 26, 2010 9:32 am

It is written down what they will do if that unlikely scenario happens and I think it goes to most points scored and who won between them over the season (Spelly??)

Highly unlikely givent hat they will go to four decimal places I think with percentage so only possible to go tot eh above if they have exactly teh same for and agaisnt at the end of the year.
Let that be a lesson to you Port, no one beats the Bays five times in a row in a GF and gets away with it!!!
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Re: Close percentages

Postby spell_check » Wed May 26, 2010 10:58 pm

You would think the SANFL would do what the AFL has got down for that scenario:

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=9297&p=207418
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Re: Close percentages

Postby fish » Wed May 26, 2010 11:56 pm

Cheers spelly. :D
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Re: Close percentages

Postby stampy » Sat Jun 19, 2010 11:12 pm

robranisgod wrote:
spell_check wrote:Round 19 1969
(4) North 13 6 - 1806 1553 53.7660 26 (0.0044)
(5) Torrens 13 6 - 1858 1598 53.7616 26



I remember this instance vividly. In round 19 North had played Torrens at Thebarton. If North had won they would have sewn up 4th place (remember in those days it was a final four). Torrens won by about 20 points to set up a fascinating last round. North had to play Sturt at Unley - no mean feat in those days - and Torrens had to play Port at Alberton - normally a herculean task, but this was Port's worst year in decades. They were already out of the race. Torrens won, North lost so Torrens finished fourth having won something like their last 11 games. They were just about favourites for the flag, but they then drew with West after leading by about 6 goals and then lost the replay. I would be interested what the crowds were at the round 19 Thebby match and the first semi and replay. Torrens seemed to have a massive following back then.


going by the scores i dont reckon torrens would have been 6 goals up in that first semi, but i do remember as a 6 yr old them inflicting the first defeat of the year on the tiges after we had wond the first 11
Go The Tiges!!!
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Re: Close percentages

Postby stampy » Sat Jun 19, 2010 11:25 pm

looking at 1970 the bays beat torrens in the last minor round game at the bay and got into the 4 with a % of 50.83 whilst norwood finished with exactly 50.00%. both sides finished with 22 points, (courtesy of the snouts wiki)

Spelly, am i right in saying that norwood drew with port at alberton that same day? i vaguely remember being at glenelg and the crowd fired up with about 10 minutes to go when word came through that the legs hadnt won after they seemingly had the game in their keeping late in the match
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Re: Close percentages

Postby FOURTH ESTATE » Sun Jun 20, 2010 8:02 pm

stampy wrote:looking at 1970 the bays beat torrens in the last minor round game at the bay and got into the 4 with a % of 50.83 whilst norwood finished with exactly 50.00%. both sides finished with 22 points, (courtesy of the snouts wiki)

Spelly, am i right in saying that norwood drew with port at alberton that same day? i vaguely remember being at glenelg and the crowd fired up with about 10 minutes to go when word came through that the legs hadnt won after they seemingly had the game in their keeping late in the match


That's correct. Norwood coach Robert Oatey was not happy with the draw especially after he had heard that the Bays had won!!
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Let that be a lesson to you Sturt. You don't beat Glenelg 3 times in a row in Grand Finals and get away with it.
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Re: Close percentages

Postby robranisgod » Sun Jun 20, 2010 10:01 pm

stampy wrote:
robranisgod wrote:
spell_check wrote:Round 19 1969
(4) North 13 6 - 1806 1553 53.7660 26 (0.0044)
(5) Torrens 13 6 - 1858 1598 53.7616 26



I remember this instance vividly. In round 19 North had played Torrens at Thebarton. If North had won they would have sewn up 4th place (remember in those days it was a final four). Torrens won by about 20 points to set up a fascinating last round. North had to play Sturt at Unley - no mean feat in those days - and Torrens had to play Port at Alberton - normally a herculean task, but this was Port's worst year in decades. They were already out of the race. Torrens won, North lost so Torrens finished fourth having won something like their last 11 games. They were just about favourites for the flag, but they then drew with West after leading by about 6 goals and then lost the replay. I would be interested what the crowds were at the round 19 Thebby match and the first semi and replay. Torrens seemed to have a massive following back then.


going by the scores i dont reckon torrens would have been 6 goals up in that first semi, but i do remember as a 6 yr old them inflicting the first defeat of the year on the tiges after we had wond the first 11

I reckon that Torrens were in front by 8 goals to 2 goals prior to half time. I know that Torrens only kicked 3 goals 7 behinds in the second half.
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Re: Close percentages

Postby dedja » Sun Jun 20, 2010 10:03 pm

IIRC Sturt had a massive win on the last minor round in 1980 to edge out Torrens for 3rd spot on percentage.
Dunno, I’m just an idiot.

I’m only the administrator of the estate of dedja
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Re: Close percentages

Postby stampy » Mon Jun 21, 2010 8:01 pm

think it might have been against westies, kicked something like 13 goals in the last qtr to pinch 3rd spot from torrens?

SPELLY!!!!!!???????!!!!!!
Go The Tiges!!!
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Re: Close percentages

Postby spell_check » Mon Jun 21, 2010 8:07 pm

Round 22 1980
Sturt 5.4 14.7 17.15 31.20 (206)
West 3.3 8.5 9.7 12.11 (83)
Unley, 5905

Sturt took 3rd place by 0.17%
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Re: Close percentages

Postby stampy » Mon Jun 21, 2010 8:14 pm

thanks spelly, 6 minutes is dragging the chain though!
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