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Close percentages

PostPosted: Sun May 23, 2010 12:16 am
by spell_check
Currently there is just 0.0093 separating 2nd and 3rd on the League ladder. Lets have a look at other occasions where there have been clubs level on points and less than 0.01 % separating them:

Round 2 1932
(Position, Team, W, L, D, F, A, %, Points)
(6) West 0 2 - 130 154 45.7746 0 (0.0020)
(7) Norwood 0 2 - 157 186 45.7726 0

Round 1 1949
(2) Norwood 1 0 - 106 67 61.2717 2 (0.0041)
(3) Torrens 1 0 - 87 55 61.2676 2
(6) Sturt 0 1 - 55 87 38.7324 0 (0.0041)
(7) West 0 1 - 67 106 38.7283 0

Round 5 1956
(4) North 2 3 - 443 448 49.7194 4 (0.0064)
(5) Norwood 2 3 - 433 438 49.7130 4

Round 19 1969
(4) North 13 6 - 1806 1553 53.7660 26 (0.0044)
(5) Torrens 13 6 - 1858 1598 53.7616 26

Round 2 1974
(2) Glenelg 3 1 - 555 434 56.1173 6 (0.0076)
(3) Norwood 3 1 - 450 352 56.1097 6

Round 6 1988
(7) West 2 4 - 568 692 45.0794 4 (0.0028)
(8) Sturt 2 4 - 618 753 45.0766 4

Round 4 1989
(5) Port 2 2 - 377 388 49.2810 4 (0.0099)
(6) Glenelg 2 2 - 338 348 49.2711 4

Round 11 2002
(7) North 3 6 - 749 1027 42.1734 6 (0.0068)
(8) South 3 7 - 724 993 42.1666 6

Round 9 2010
(2) Eagles 5 3 - 803 722 52.6557 6 (0.0093)
(3) Glenelg 5 3 - 746 671 52.6464 6

Note however the 2002 match had an uneven amount of matches played, so this latest occurance ranks the 9th closest percentage difference between clubs level on points and matches played. It is also the 2nd latest in a season for two teams to be this close; behind the 1969 instance.

On a side note, there has actually been a time where two teams were level on points for and against; aside from an opening round draw. There was one point separating the teams, so it doesn't make the above list:

Round 5 1924
(4) South 3 2 - 349 311 52.88 6
(5) Norwood 2 2 1 349 311 52.88 5

Re: Close percentages

PostPosted: Sun May 23, 2010 1:44 am
by robranisgod
spell_check wrote:Round 19 1969
(4) North 13 6 - 1806 1553 53.7660 26 (0.0044)
(5) Torrens 13 6 - 1858 1598 53.7616 26



I remember this instance vividly. In round 19 North had played Torrens at Thebarton. If North had won they would have sewn up 4th place (remember in those days it was a final four). Torrens won by about 20 points to set up a fascinating last round. North had to play Sturt at Unley - no mean feat in those days - and Torrens had to play Port at Alberton - normally a herculean task, but this was Port's worst year in decades. They were already out of the race. Torrens won, North lost so Torrens finished fourth having won something like their last 11 games. They were just about favourites for the flag, but they then drew with West after leading by about 6 goals and then lost the replay. I would be interested what the crowds were at the round 19 Thebby match and the first semi and replay. Torrens seemed to have a massive following back then.

Re: Close percentages

PostPosted: Sun May 23, 2010 5:02 pm
by spell_check
The matches were:

Round 19 1969
Torrens 4.1 12.7 13.11 19.13 (127)
North 4.3 9.5 12.7 16.10 (106)
Thebarton, 16352

Round 20 1969
Torrens 3.2 8.6 12.14 16.15 (111)
Port 3.1 5.2 8.5 9.10 (64)
Alberton, 14920

1st Semi Final 1969
West 5.2 8.3 10.6 11.10 (76)
Torrens 2.3 4.9 7.14 10.16 (76)
Adelaide, 28349

1st Semi Final Replay 1969
West 3.2 5.3 10.7 13.11 (89)
Torrens 5.2 6.4 7.7 10.8 (68)
Adelaide, 26315

Re: Close percentages

PostPosted: Sun May 23, 2010 7:54 pm
by robranisgod
spell_check wrote:The matches were:

Round 19 1969
Torrens 4.1 12.7 13.11 19.13 (127)
North 4.3 9.5 12.7 16.10 (106)
Thebarton, 16352

Round 20 1969
Torrens 3.2 8.6 12.14 16.15 (111)
Port 3.1 5.2 8.5 9.10 (64)
Alberton, 14920

1st Semi Final 1969
West 5.2 8.3 10.6 11.10 (76)
Torrens 2.3 4.9 7.14 10.16 (76)
Adelaide, 28349

1st Semi Final Replay 1969
West 3.2 5.3 10.7 13.11 (89)
Torrens 5.2 6.4 7.7 10.8 (68)
Adelaide, 26315


How good were the last two minor round games crowds, especially the Torrens vs North game. Not bad for two clubs who weren't in the so called big 4. On second thoughts they probably were in 1969. The finals crowds were perhaps a little disappointing, but I guess Westies did always struggle to have much of a following.

Re: Close percentages

PostPosted: Sun May 23, 2010 9:37 pm
by Interceptor
What's the smallest percentage margin that a side has missed the finals by?
For both final 4 and 5 if possible.

Re: Close percentages

PostPosted: Sun May 23, 2010 10:10 pm
by spell_check
Final Four:
Torrens - 0.16% 1958
Norwood - 0.39% 1936
Norwood - 0.64% 1911
Norwood - 0.83% 1970
Sturt - 1.08% 1927
North - 1.27% 1955
Port - 1.37% 1922
North - 2.36% 1965
South - 3.45% 1924

Final Five:
Eagles - 1.25% 1998
West - 1.86% 1982
Central - 2.58% 1973
Sturt - 3.05% 1981
North - 3.56% 1979
Central - 4.32% 1976

Re: Close percentages

PostPosted: Tue May 25, 2010 11:31 pm
by fish
Just out of interest - what would happen if 5th and 6th had the exact same percentage and points scored for and against at the end of the minor round? Who would advance to the finals?

Re: Close percentages

PostPosted: Wed May 26, 2010 9:32 am
by am Bays
It is written down what they will do if that unlikely scenario happens and I think it goes to most points scored and who won between them over the season (Spelly??)

Highly unlikely givent hat they will go to four decimal places I think with percentage so only possible to go tot eh above if they have exactly teh same for and agaisnt at the end of the year.

Re: Close percentages

PostPosted: Wed May 26, 2010 10:58 pm
by spell_check
You would think the SANFL would do what the AFL has got down for that scenario:

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=9297&p=207418

Re: Close percentages

PostPosted: Wed May 26, 2010 11:56 pm
by fish
Cheers spelly. :D

Re: Close percentages

PostPosted: Sat Jun 19, 2010 11:12 pm
by stampy
robranisgod wrote:
spell_check wrote:Round 19 1969
(4) North 13 6 - 1806 1553 53.7660 26 (0.0044)
(5) Torrens 13 6 - 1858 1598 53.7616 26



I remember this instance vividly. In round 19 North had played Torrens at Thebarton. If North had won they would have sewn up 4th place (remember in those days it was a final four). Torrens won by about 20 points to set up a fascinating last round. North had to play Sturt at Unley - no mean feat in those days - and Torrens had to play Port at Alberton - normally a herculean task, but this was Port's worst year in decades. They were already out of the race. Torrens won, North lost so Torrens finished fourth having won something like their last 11 games. They were just about favourites for the flag, but they then drew with West after leading by about 6 goals and then lost the replay. I would be interested what the crowds were at the round 19 Thebby match and the first semi and replay. Torrens seemed to have a massive following back then.


going by the scores i dont reckon torrens would have been 6 goals up in that first semi, but i do remember as a 6 yr old them inflicting the first defeat of the year on the tiges after we had wond the first 11

Re: Close percentages

PostPosted: Sat Jun 19, 2010 11:25 pm
by stampy
looking at 1970 the bays beat torrens in the last minor round game at the bay and got into the 4 with a % of 50.83 whilst norwood finished with exactly 50.00%. both sides finished with 22 points, (courtesy of the snouts wiki)

Spelly, am i right in saying that norwood drew with port at alberton that same day? i vaguely remember being at glenelg and the crowd fired up with about 10 minutes to go when word came through that the legs hadnt won after they seemingly had the game in their keeping late in the match

Re: Close percentages

PostPosted: Sun Jun 20, 2010 8:02 pm
by FOURTH ESTATE
stampy wrote:looking at 1970 the bays beat torrens in the last minor round game at the bay and got into the 4 with a % of 50.83 whilst norwood finished with exactly 50.00%. both sides finished with 22 points, (courtesy of the snouts wiki)

Spelly, am i right in saying that norwood drew with port at alberton that same day? i vaguely remember being at glenelg and the crowd fired up with about 10 minutes to go when word came through that the legs hadnt won after they seemingly had the game in their keeping late in the match


That's correct. Norwood coach Robert Oatey was not happy with the draw especially after he had heard that the Bays had won!!

Re: Close percentages

PostPosted: Sun Jun 20, 2010 10:01 pm
by robranisgod
stampy wrote:
robranisgod wrote:
spell_check wrote:Round 19 1969
(4) North 13 6 - 1806 1553 53.7660 26 (0.0044)
(5) Torrens 13 6 - 1858 1598 53.7616 26



I remember this instance vividly. In round 19 North had played Torrens at Thebarton. If North had won they would have sewn up 4th place (remember in those days it was a final four). Torrens won by about 20 points to set up a fascinating last round. North had to play Sturt at Unley - no mean feat in those days - and Torrens had to play Port at Alberton - normally a herculean task, but this was Port's worst year in decades. They were already out of the race. Torrens won, North lost so Torrens finished fourth having won something like their last 11 games. They were just about favourites for the flag, but they then drew with West after leading by about 6 goals and then lost the replay. I would be interested what the crowds were at the round 19 Thebby match and the first semi and replay. Torrens seemed to have a massive following back then.


going by the scores i dont reckon torrens would have been 6 goals up in that first semi, but i do remember as a 6 yr old them inflicting the first defeat of the year on the tiges after we had wond the first 11

I reckon that Torrens were in front by 8 goals to 2 goals prior to half time. I know that Torrens only kicked 3 goals 7 behinds in the second half.

Re: Close percentages

PostPosted: Sun Jun 20, 2010 10:03 pm
by dedja
IIRC Sturt had a massive win on the last minor round in 1980 to edge out Torrens for 3rd spot on percentage.

Re: Close percentages

PostPosted: Mon Jun 21, 2010 8:01 pm
by stampy
think it might have been against westies, kicked something like 13 goals in the last qtr to pinch 3rd spot from torrens?

SPELLY!!!!!!???????!!!!!!

Re: Close percentages

PostPosted: Mon Jun 21, 2010 8:07 pm
by spell_check
Round 22 1980
Sturt 5.4 14.7 17.15 31.20 (206)
West 3.3 8.5 9.7 12.11 (83)
Unley, 5905

Sturt took 3rd place by 0.17%

Re: Close percentages

PostPosted: Mon Jun 21, 2010 8:14 pm
by stampy
thanks spelly, 6 minutes is dragging the chain though!