Re: The South Australian Political Landscape
Posted: Sat Mar 24, 2018 7:11 pm
Dogwatcher wrote:An observation.
The northern suburbs of Adelaide are traditionally an ALP stronghold and will be again in this election (with a bit of a shake-up from Xenophon), because the Libs have done nothing to gain traction in this community.
They have put up barely recognisable candidates and I'm not seeing many candidate posters around the area.
What they've failed to recognise is the north's changing demographic and growing population.
They've done no groundwork here in the years preceding this election and this campaign feels same-old same old in terms of what will happen at the polling booth.
A decent campaign may not have won them a seat at this election, but at the least could have gained some traction out here at the next.
Mark my words, the north has far greater potential for economic and political influence than many would recognise - believe me, the media knows it. Everyone else needs to catch-up.
Interesting adroit observation DW when you look at the Swing against Labor in King, Wright and Taylor (admittedly against SAB in Taylor). Compare this to the seats of Hurtle Vale, Reynell and Kaurna (southern Suburbs based around Noarlunga where there was an average swing to the ALP of 4.5%.
Compare this to the same demographic seats of Elizabeth, Light and King and the swing is under 4% add in Wright and Taylor and the swing to Labour is barely 1.5% in the North (thanks to basically 6% swings in Light and Elizabeth). Average swing against Labour in Wright, King and Taylor over 1.5%, Add in MAwson where the biggest both is Aldinga it is easy to see, that compared to the Southern suburbs, that the ALP has some thinking to do with respect to the Nrthern suburbs as DW implied.
Will these seats change hands in the future, will King might go back but what it shows is that in the future as DW suggested the ALP may have to put some campaign resources into those seats rather than take them for granted and campaign elsewhere.
The Libs may need to do the same in the Hills especially if SAB stay strong too.