If you were voting in the Federal Election tomorrow.....-

[Punk Rooster]

He took my guns away back in 1996 coz of that demented f'wit @ Port Arthur...

thank christ for that!

[Sojourner]

Labor's major mistake at the last election was permitting Mark Latham to get up and say that he was happy to get rid of the jobs of forestry workers in Tasmania in exchange for preferences from the Greens, so three days out from the election you had pictures on the news of CFMEU forestry workers cheering John Howard as he promised to retain their jobs, that cost Labor two seats in Tassie which they will likely get back this time.

Kingston in the south of Adelaide is the most marginal Liberal seat in Australia and I would think that Labor would win that back.

Makin in the North Eastern Suburbs I dont think Labor will win, despite Tony Zappia being their candidate. Bob Day the Liberal candidate is a Builder and a chap who ran the Salvation Army homeless teenage shelter in the area for several years, he is a strong candidate and as is mentioned above, Makin will be a seat where the matter of interest rates will be a strong issue which will likely dominate the seat.

My tip is that Liberal will win, yet will see a moderate swing against them.

The poll that counts is the TAB poll and they have Liberal a long way ahead, unlike the other polls if they get it wrong it costs them serious dollars, so the way that the questions are asked are asked somewhat differently, unlike the poll questions that are often used to make cheap headlines.

Where Labor struggle and need to pick up support is those people who 20 years ago would have voted Labor and now vote for the Greens, that is hurting Labor big time. Yet it is a tricky balance because the right side of the party doesnt want them involved anyway!

One Nation is not popular and Family First are treading water yet outside of the Liberal party, these are the only two real options for people that want to vote right wing.

Yet on the Left, you have the Greens, the Democrats and the Socialist Alliance, all of whom target Labor voters and whiteant Labor as a result. If just those that vote Greens voted Labor, that could well win Labor the election. Yet that is unlikely to happen any time soon.

The poll result above is interesting, yet to gauge the real feeling it is a pity that there is not a second poll asking how you voted last time, it is the people that change their vote - swinging voters that change election results, not so much the rusted on voters.

[heater31]

Both of you scare the crap out of me with that attitude.

Don't worry Phil by the time Im 35, I might actually give two hoots about this crap. But not just at the minute

the generation of 20 somethings don't give a sh*t about this garbage.

IMHO which ever way you vote you are screwed* vote libs job security is threatened, labor economic policy goes out the window family first are a bunch of religious freaks. the greens are a lot of NIMBY's and the independents just dont have the numbers to make a difference

[Wedgie]

the generation of 20 somethings don't give a sh*t about this garbage.

Believe me, it aint just 20 somethings.

[McAlmanac]

Labor's major mistake at the last election was permitting Mark Latham to get up and say that he was happy to get rid of the jobs of forestry workers in Tasmania in exchange for preferences from the Greens, so three days out from the election you had pictures on the news of CFMEU forestry workers cheering John Howard as he promised to retain their jobs, that cost Labor two seats in Tassie which they will likely get back this time.

....

Where Labor struggle and need to pick up support is those people who 20 years ago would have voted Labor and now vote for the Greens, that is hurting Labor big time. Yet it is a tricky balance because the right side of the party doesnt want them involved anyway!

One Nation is not popular and Family First are treading water yet outside of the Liberal party, these are the only two real options for people that want to vote right wing.

Yet on the Left, you have the Greens, the Democrats and the Socialist Alliance, all of whom target Labor voters and whiteant Labor as a result. If just those that vote Greens voted Labor, that could well win Labor the election. Yet that is unlikely to happen any time soon.

Mark Latham's campaign disintegrated when he tried to disintegrate John Howard's hand with a handshake that would make Neil Kerley or Ted Whitten wince. At that point he became unelectable.

As for the Greens and the Socialists - well, where do you reckon their preferences are going? They aren't delivering the Liberals primary votes. So they aren't costing Labor lower house seats.

One Nation is not popular because One Nation are non-existent.

Labor have suffered with the lack of a credible leader and a lack of talent on the front bench (hands up if you ever wanted Jenny Macklin as Deputy Prime Minister). They have made strides in these areas, which augurs for a close election.

[am Bays]

Both of you scare the crap out of me with that attitude.

Don't worry Phil by the time Im 35, I might actually give two hoots about this crap. But not just at the minute

the generation of 20 somethings don't give a sh*t about this garbage.

IMHO which ever way you vote you are screwed* vote libs job security is threatened, labor economic policy goes out the window family first are a bunch of religious freaks. the greens are a lot of NIMBY's and the independents just dont have the numbers to make a difference

Ah the Gen Y/Gen me/dot coms phenomenum......

whats in it for me, don't tell me who I should vote for convince why I should vote for you and why it is good for me. Keep it snappy (text message preferably) as I want sound bites and if needs be direct me to a website where i can find out for myself.....

I know sociologists at Uni who count the number of "Yeah, Yeah I know" they get each day from their students (typical Gen Ys)

Not having a go at anyone here but I find the differences between the generations (Pre War, baby boomers, Gen X and Gen Y)interesting.

[Wedgie]

Not having a go at anyone here but I find the differences between the generations (Pre War, baby boomers, Gen X and Gen Y)interesting.

What group were people born in 1970?

[heater31]

Not having a go at anyone here but I find the differences between the generations (Pre War, baby boomers, Gen X and Gen Y)interesting.

What group were people born in 1970?

Xers arn't you???????

[Wedgie]

Not having a go at anyone here but I find the differences between the generations (Pre War, baby boomers, Gen X and Gen Y)interesting.

What group were people born in 1970?

Xers arn't you???????

Dunno, but I like the sounds of being a part of Degeneration X.

[am Bays]

Not having a go at anyone here but I find the differences between the generations (Pre War, baby boomers, Gen X and Gen Y)interesting.

What group were people born in 1970?

Gen X, the labels are broad though Wedgie, even though somone can be a Gen Y some of their attributes could reflect Gen X and vice versa.

The characteristics are broad but so their are exceptions in every category, just like some Port supporters are good blokes and can use multi-syllable words, which bucks the conventional trend.....

FYI every one seems to think that the baby boom in Australia happened after the war, the real baby boom occured 1970-1972 (echo boomers), when the baby boomers started doing it, womens lib, Female Eunich, burn the bras, contraception started becoming available but not used effectively...lets rebel against our parents lets have sex, coincidently those were the biggest years for adoptions too - as parents pulled ranks on their young daughters to maintain the families "reputation".

Stands to reason why unemployment was so high in 91-93, the kids born in 70-72 were coming out of uni looking for work....

[Wedgie]

Stands to reason why unemployment was so high in 91-93, the kids born in 70-72 were coming out of uni looking for work....

Dunno, I went straight into the work force the day after leaving school and my best mate who went to uni gets jobs everywhere in mining (and he's a Bays supporter! Used to be a Port supporter at school too! )
But yes, there were plenty of bogans around my age who seemed to get lost in between eras.

[Punk Rooster]

lets rebel against our parents lets have sex, coincidently those were the biggest years for adoptions too - as parents pulled ranks on their young daughters to maintain the families "reputation".

yes, my Nan has never recovered from the shame of giving birth 7 months after her marriage in the 50's...

[noone]

The poll that counts is the TAB poll and they have Liberal a long way ahead, unlike the other polls if they get it wrong it costs them serious dollars, so the way that the questions are asked are asked somewhat differently, unlike the poll questions that are often used to make cheap headlines.

ok a couple of points, firstly if you have a look here, http://www.ozpolitics.info/blog/?p=493 you will see that the betting markers are virtually neck and neck. ie [quote=ozpolitics]For a Coalition win Centrebet would pay $1.80 and for a Labor win it would pay $1.90. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 51.4 per cent (was 53.8 per cent)[/quote]

thats pretty much neck and neck.

secondly, the reliability of betting markets on the predictability of election results is quite strong in my opinion, however it is only reliable very close to an election. his is likewise true for opinion polls however I think it is worse for betting simply because there is not alot of money going into either party on the bookies at the moment, thus the markets can be influenced by a few 'true believers' who have to much money to spend. Last electoral cycle there was even talk of a 50k bet being layed down to try and influence the market.

And finally, while party political polls and polls in the media are frequently worded to produce desidered answers (when did you stop beating your wife?) the three major polling companies all use the same questions survey after survey, and the questions used are very similar between the three polling companies. The only dodgy polling question is the prefered prime minister/incumbent one, as the incumbent has a logical advantage. Not a problem in itself, however there is no proof that preferred PM questions have any influence on voting intentions.

and as Mc said we have a preferential system, so the 8 socialist alliance voters can preference labor before liberal (mind you apparently many of them will vote labor last as being sellout socialists). In the NSW and QLD state elections with optional preferencing it is a problem for the ALP, however likely countered by FF/fred nile, as well as the problems the coalition face when they get stuck in three way contests.

in conclusion atleast half check your polling/betting facts before passing them of as such.

[Magpiespower]

Mark Latham's campaign disintegrated when he tried to disintegrate John Howard's hand with a handshake...

Reakon his 'policy-on-the-run' to bring the troops home before Christmas was the beginning of the end...

[mick]

I'll take the socially abhorrent please, even though I have reached the point in my life where I am financially independent enough not to worry about interest rates etc. Yep if things continue as they are I'll soon be well off enough to become a champagne or latte socialist, pity there are no "long black" socialists.

[redandblack]

Mark Latham's campaign disintegrated when he tried to disintegrate John Howard's hand with a handshake...

Reakon his 'policy-on-the-run' to bring the troops home before Christmas was the beginning of the end...

You're probably right, although it's interesting that John Howard's statement about Iraq "we'll be there for months, not years", rarely gets a mention.

[redandblack]

If you lived in Port Adelaide or in Upper Class Sydney your vote is not going to mean a brass razoo.

That's where Bennelong is, Wedgie! The tide was changing! Same thing happened in other seats up that way!

Bennelong demographic has changed and it is no longer blue ribbon Liberal, Wentworth, North Sydney and Abootts seat are but the last two elections Bennelong has gone to preferences....

Even though it is North of the river, in the same way the traditional Labor seats South of the river in Sydney Gwyder and Blaxland went to preferences last election. If you going to use the same logic about Bennelong Phil and the other inner west seats of Sydney North of the river you have to say the inner west seats South of the river are in danger of crossing over too.

As I said last time we had this debate, this election will be decided like the last two by the outer mortgage belt seats in the captial cities.

I think you'll find that Gwydir, if that's the seat you're thinking about, is a very safe National seat and as far away from Sydney as you can get in NSW.

Apart from that, you're right. However, I doubt if the Sydney seats are going to be where the election will be won or lost.

[Snaggletooth Tiger]

Dunno, but I like the sounds of being a part of Degeneration X.

...& if you're not down with that, we got two words for ya...
"SUCK IT!!!"

[am Bays]

I think you'll find that Gwydir, if that's the seat you're thinking about, is a very safe National seat and as far away from Sydney as you can get in NSW.

Apart from that, you're right. However, I doubt if the Sydney seats are going to be where the election will be won or lost.

My bad, all I'm thinking of John kerins old seat and a host of inner South West seats that are all "Blue ribbon" Labor but because aspirational voters are moving in to the old fibro areas of Sydney they are going to preferences now rather than straight wins to the Labor party...

AS Phil points out the traditional lib seats are swinging towards Labor....

[PhilG]

..