by Sojourner » Mon Mar 19, 2007 8:35 pm
There is a popular article written a couple of years ago called "The South Park Conservatives" which mirrors this article, there is a massive trend amongst Generation X & Y to vote conservative, be it to rebel against their parents or for other reasons as the article above states.
Where I think that people are being a little presumptuos is assuming that because someone voted Liberal last time that if they change their vote it will be to the Labor party. That may have been the case in the days prior to the Democrats, yet these days things are alot different and there are various parties that stand a chance of winning that you can vote for - Greens, Democrats, Family First, No Pokies, Dignity for the Disabled, Socialist Alliance, One Nation etc etc.
What it comes down to is the rusted on voters 30% on each side, the minority voters 10% and the swinging voters 30%, the question is why the swinging voters should choose Labor over the other groups, the second point being the preference deals that are done, both Labor and Liberal can only return preferences that count to so many groups, so who channels votes into them can decide elections.