SA Footy

Trader wrote:

Mr Beefy wrote:You haven't factored in that the transmission rate is exponential.

Is it though?
I agree it's higher than a 'fleeting contact', but sitting in a room for a number of hours with an active case wouldn't be unsimilar to having cases all around you.

Even if we then look at a country where it did get out of control and it was everywhere and the 'exponential' factor might be at play.

India.
31.6m cases, 1.366b people = 2.27% catch it. - possibly not the best example as their testing rate would be low so could easily be double or triple the number of actual cases (if not more).

America, a basket case according to many on here, they hit 10.6% of the population caught covid.
Spain 9%
Brazil 9%
UK 8.4%
Italy 7.1%
Germany 4.4%
Russia 4.3%

No doubt the 7.5% I used was based on a small sample size and shouldn't be considered the definitive answer, but based on the above countries where it did get out of control and was wide spread, I'm not sure the 7.5% used in my calcs is all that bad an assumption.

*dissimilar
If course it is exponential, if one person gave it to 16 people, then it would be safe to assume the those 16 people would have given it more than 16 other people should they have been allowed to "run wild".
Those countries you mention all put in measures to restrict the spread of covid, not just "let it run wild".

Dutchy wrote:Australia still seems going down the elimination route, why???

Check out the deaths in countries who went for herd immunity that's why

Do we really not have scientists who could make some copies of the vaccines?

Make our own instead of buying them from overseas

MW wrote:Check out the deaths in countries who went for herd immunity that's why

Such as?

From memory Sweeden went down that path,

Mr Beefy wrote:

Trader wrote:

Mr Beefy wrote:You haven't factored in that the transmission rate is exponential.

Is it though?
I agree it's higher than a 'fleeting contact', but sitting in a room for a number of hours with an active case wouldn't be unsimilar to having cases all around you.

Even if we then look at a country where it did get out of control and it was everywhere and the 'exponential' factor might be at play.

India.
31.6m cases, 1.366b people = 2.27% catch it. - possibly not the best example as their testing rate would be low so could easily be double or triple the number of actual cases (if not more).

America, a basket case according to many on here, they hit 10.6% of the population caught covid.
Spain 9%
Brazil 9%
UK 8.4%
Italy 7.1%
Germany 4.4%
Russia 4.3%

No doubt the 7.5% I used was based on a small sample size and shouldn't be considered the definitive answer, but based on the above countries where it did get out of control and was wide spread, I'm not sure the 7.5% used in my calcs is all that bad an assumption.

*dissimilar
If course it is exponential, if one person gave it to 16 people, then it would be safe to assume the those 16 people would have given it more than 16 other people should they have been allowed to "run wild".
Those countries you mention all put in measures to restrict the spread of covid, not just "let it run wild".

Right, I see what you are asking.

Yes, the spread occurs at an exponential rate, however the assumption used was that everyone who will catch it does, the numbers I presented didn't look at when you caught it, cause it is expected that over time, anyone susceptible to catching it will.

The model doesn't matter if you catch it on day 1 or day 50 or day 200, if you catch it and it kills you, you're in the deaths stats. It doesn't change depending on what day your death occurs.

Armchair expert wrote:Do we really not have scientists who could make some copies of the vaccines?

Make our own instead of buying them from overseas

My understanding (happy to be corrected) is that we did produce a vaccine here which worked very effectively BUT gave false test results indicating some recipients had AIDS (which they didn’t)

DOC wrote:From memory Sweeden went down that path,

1.1 million population
14, 655 deaths

Sweeden's population is a little over 10 million. Perhaps cases?

DOC wrote:Sweeden's population is a little over 10 million. Perhaps cases?

Sorry whoops haha! Yeah cases

Wedgie wrote:

mal wrote:What are we meant to wash our cat masks with ?
Just water ?

Cat nip

Port tears.

JK wrote:

Armchair expert wrote:Do we really not have scientists who could make some copies of the vaccines?

Make our own instead of buying them from overseas

My understanding (happy to be corrected) is that we did produce a vaccine here which worked very effectively BUT gave false test results indicating some recipients had AIDS (which they didn’t)

correct, University of Queensland one.

The AZ one can be made here, thats why the government went down that route instead of ordering more pfizer originally.

The Bedge wrote:2021
11, 860 deaths from cancer
3, 541 deaths from dementia
3, 074 deaths from heart disease
2, 782 deaths from respiratory disease (pneumonia, influenzea) inc 1,569 Chronic lower respiratory disease (see below)
2, 072 deaths from cerebrovascular disease inc strokes.
1, 569 deaths from chronic lower respiratory disease (bronchitis, emphysema, asthma)
1, 187 deaths from road fatalities in Australia
1, 051 deaths from diabetes
60 deaths from road fatalities in South Australia

Total coronavirus cases in SA since beginning: 857
Total coronavirus deaths in SA since beginning: 4

Then for some fun (thanks google):
Texting while driving kills 6,000 Amercians annually.
Hippos kill 2,900 people annually in Africa
600 people annually die from autoerotic asphyxiation
450 people die each year from falling out of bed.
100 people in Russia are killed from icicles
Vending machines claim 13 people a year falling over.
Evil ants kill 30 people annually.
Dogs slightly more dangerous at 34 victims.

Wow only yesterday i was thinking of finding the same stats to compare death rates against Corona Virus stats.

Great minds think a like well done mate.

Any way was a bit bored today so i will present some stats of Flu Deaths in Australia in my next post.

Cheers

Pag wrote:

Lightning McQueen wrote:

gazzamagoo wrote:kids are confused,
kids in shops etc must wear a mask if they're 12 or over,
kids in school have to wear a mask if they're in year 8 and over.
Kids in year 8 are 13 and 14.
should be year 7 and over.

Schools are generally years reception to Year 7, then Year 8 to Year 12, I guess they are just trying separate Primary School from High School.

I personally would've rather have kept kids out of it, I find it quite eerie walking around when everyone is masked up, I think the petty crime rate will go up and I actually feel like a bit of a villain as I get out of my car to put my mask on to go in a shop.

And the worst part is that the rest of the public miss out on seeing my boyish good looks and warming smile.

Can already say this rule is a shitshow.

Have seen two staff members at our school site this morning ask high-school students to put masks on in an indoor area and have been refused. Education Department directive is there is to be no 'behavioural consequence' for students not wearing masks. Why make the rule in the first place if you don't care if kids adhere to it?

This'll go well

Its because it isnt enforcable. Ive said this before, mandates are not laws, If you get any sort of covid fine dont pay it. Im also not sure that a government can enforce a medical procedure (mask) on anyone underage without parental consent.
Also directions are not enforcable unless you are named individually by an authorized officer.
You also do not need a doctors certificate to not wear a mask, just stating you have a medical condition preventing you wearing a mask is sufficient. Hope that clears it up

So had some time on my hands today and came and found these stats for anyone that is interested.

Death and Infection rates from Flu Viruses in Australia 2016 to 2021

INFECTIONS DEATHS

2016 ---- 90,800 ------- ​464
2017 ----- 221,853 ------ 1255
2018 ---- 58,847 ------- 125
2019 ---- 300,000 PLUS ------ 705

* 2020 ---- ----- 908
* 2021 ---- 33,081 ------ 10

* Please note for some reason the record keepers have not kept seperate totals for 2020 Corona Virus Covid 19 and 2021 Corona Virus Delta they have just kept a running total of infections and deaths for the last 18 months.

So in 18 months in Australia we have had 33,081 infections.

You can all draw your own conclusions from those stats.

So following Bedges lead i checked out the SA Health Covid site for more stats.

Once again this site also keeps a running total from 2020 to date and also have not separated the stats per year

Total tests in South Australia for the last 18 months 1,871,408
Total Cases of infections 857
Total Deaths 4

Do the percentages there is a very minimal risk of catching the Corona Flu Virus in South Australia.

So with such a low risk why are school children and every day shoppers still forced to wear masks. ????

Anyway food for thought.

Anyone else get this in the mail today:



Worth a read.

amber_fluid wrote:Anyone else get this in the mail today:

3AF6FD30-EFAD-47A7-A8A5-6B984855147C.jpeg

Worth a read.

Got it yesterday, read the first paragraph and gave up. Cheers Clive...

Make up your own minds, Fitzy and Jones have history despite Jones first selecting him in the Wallabies.

https://fb.watch/v/3C6S0_DMr/

Warning it is the ABC though.

And this is the media watch episode Lisa’s W old man was referring too [url]Watching Media Watch Monday 19/7/2021 in iview[/url]

daysofourlives wrote:
Its because it isnt enforcable. Ive said this before, mandates are not laws, If you get any sort of covid fine dont pay it. Im also not sure that a government can enforce a medical procedure (mask) on anyone underage without parental consent.
Also directions are not enforcable unless you are named individually by an authorized officer.
You also do not need a doctors certificate to not wear a mask, just stating you have a medical condition preventing you wearing a mask is sufficient. Hope that clears it up

That's correct.

amber_fluid wrote:Anyone else get this in the mail today:

3AF6FD30-EFAD-47A7-A8A5-6B984855147C.jpeg

Worth a read.

No it isn't. It's Clive Palmer spam.