Abbott/Liberal Govt Watch

[Grahaml]

Looking at the AEC website, libs 67 and labor 71 seats at the moment. 6 undecided at this point. Good chance it could be 72 - 72.

Don't rely on anything the AEC spruiks, they wouldn't know if their arse was on fire.

Anthony Green saying

Coalition 70
Labor 67
Greens 1
NXT 1
Other 3
Undecided 8

Of those 8, looks like 3 SHOULD go to each of the ALP and coalition with the other two down to the wire. Of the last two, Forde is 50.1 to Labor and I think it'll turn blue. Hindmarsh is the other and could be a coin flip. If I had to put money on it, I'd say Liberals, but it's hard to imagine more than a few dozen votes in it. Could even be single digits.

[mighty_tiger_79]

Yep, I'm a crackpot who voted independents over the major parties, because the major parties are so close together and so far removed from the issues that the commoner is suffering and are interested in.

[Grahaml]

Not all who vote for independant voters are crackpots. Just those who vote for people with completely unviable solutions. The problems with our government are largely because they have to appease a public who want the ideal and don't understand real restraints. There are a lot of people who honestly think they could lower taxes, increase services and produce a budget surplus.

[stan]

Aec has them at 71 all with 3 undecided at this point.

[stan]

Looking at the AEC website, libs 67 and labor 71 seats at the moment. 6 undecided at this point. Good chance it could be 72 - 72.

Don't rely on anything the AEC spruiks, they wouldn't know if their arse was on fire.

The figures are freely available on the AEC website and thats where I have got them from. They are just numbers and no speculating. That is all.

71 - 71 at the moment with first preferences counted. 3 undecided at this point.

[Jimmy_041]

Looking at the AEC website, libs 67 and labor 71 seats at the moment. 6 undecided at this point. Good chance it could be 72 - 72.

Don't rely on anything the AEC spruiks, they wouldn't know if their arse was on fire.

The figures are freely available on the AEC website and thats where I have got them from. They are just numbers and no speculating. That is all.

71 - 71 at the moment with first preferences counted. 3 undecided at this point.

Antony Green says the AEC website is wrong so that's good enough for me. Cant argue with a man who loves his work like he does

I heard him say the AEC figures are based upon who's in front at the time. It doesn't "predict" based upon trend

[Booney]

So the AEC is working with actual numbers, Green is predicting trends?

[Jimmy_041]

In Hindmarsh, Williams has 514 more first preference postal votes
2PP: Georganas lead cut by around 298 to 347 yesterday
4,426 counted 4,410 to go
This is going down to the wire - I reckon less than 100 votes in it which means a re-count

[Jimmy_041]

So the AEC is working with actual numbers, Green is predicting trends?

Yes

Lets use Hindmarsh as the example
Georganas is currently 347 in front so the AEC would give it to Labor
If the postals were running at 75% Libs / 25% and 4,000 to go, then Green would predict Lib win
AEC would change as soon as Williams got 1 vote in front

[stan]

So the AEC is working with actual numbers, Green is predicting trends?

Yes

Lets use Hindmarsh as the example
Georganas is currently 347 in front so the AEC would give it to Labor
If the postals were running at 75% Libs / 25% and 4,000 to go, then Green would predict Lib win
AEC would change as soon as Williams got 1 vote in front

The AEC is not predicting, they only shows votes at that point in time. Sort of what I was getting at. There is no trending as thats for guys like Green. As for the Aec site being wrong, they are numbers and thats it. Unless Green has the number of all the figures and already knows the result then he is speculating and not in a position to say its wrong.

Thats all i was saying.

[stan]

So the AEC is working with actual numbers, Green is predicting trends?

Correct. Green will likely be right in the end but to say the website is wrong is silly as the AEC on shows actual votes.

[Jimmy_041]

Yep, I'm a crackpot who voted independents over the major parties, because the major parties are so close together and so far removed from the issues that the commoner is suffering and are interested in.

Interesting how its only the people who voted to leave the EU are crackpots
Everybody who voted to stay knew exactly what they were doing and are obviously intelligent

Interchange "independents" for "to leave the EU"

I agree with you MT_79. Intelligent people have had enough of being treated as unintelligent by other self interested people

I've said exactly that to a Liberal senator and a Labor ex-Premier this week

[RB]

People should be able to vote for a minor party of independant but still have their vote count in the two party preferred poll.

It does.

[Jimmy_041]

Latest update:
1,459 postal votes counted and Williams clawed back 180 votes
Georganas is now only 167 votes in front with 2,951 to count

AEC will still show a Labor win but I reckon Antony would say a Lib win on that trend (well I am anyway)

[mighty_tiger_79]

Agreed

[am Bays]

Latest update:
1,459 postal votes counted and Williams clawed back 180 votes
Georganas is now only 167 votes in front with 2,951 to count

AEC will still show a Labor win but I reckon Antony would say a Lib win on that trend (well I am anyway)

Yep, Hindmarsh will be the 75th and last seat the Coalition win.

Herbet, Capricornia and Cowan are a bridge to far IMO (Herbet is the clost 750 votes with ~9000 to be counted (based on total counted in 2013).

I make it a 75 Coalition, 70 ALP, 1 NXT, 1 Grn, 1 KAP and 2 IND House of reps

Hung parliament here we come

I agree with Jimmy and MT 79, the Australian voting populous on teh whole is smart, if they think they're being taken for granted they'll punish you at the box.

[Sheik Yerbouti]

The bookies are usually pretty spot on.
Libs $1.03 from $1.20 this morning.
Hung parliment from $1.57 to $2, not favourite anymore.

[Jimmy_041]

Latest update:
1,459 postal votes counted and Williams clawed back 180 votes
Georganas is now only 167 votes in front with 2,951 to count

AEC will still show a Labor win but I reckon Antony would say a Lib win on that trend (well I am anyway)

Yep, Hindmarsh will be the 75th and last seat the Coalition win.

Herbet, Capricornia and Cowan are a bridge to far IMO (Herbet is the clost 750 votes with ~9000 to be counted (based on total counted in 2013).

I make it a 75 Coalition, 70 ALP, 1 NXT, 1 Grn, 1 KAP and 2 IND House of reps

Hung parliament here we come

I agree with Jimmy and MT 79, the Australian voting populous on teh whole is smart, if they think they're being taken for granted they'll punish you at the box.

Assuming you are correct (and I'm not disputing it) the Coalition will need to find a Speaker. I doubt Katter will do it. He's no Peter Lewis out for his own glory. He would rather get what he wants from within the Govt. They wont ask Bandt
That leaves: Cathy McGowan or Andrew Wilkie. I hope they didn't do a Bob Such on Cathy McGowan - she's the odds on for the job

[Grahaml]

People should be able to vote for a minor party of independant but still have their vote count in the two party preferred poll.

It does.

I know. I was responding to the comment that preferential voting should be abolished.

Yep, I'm a crackpot who voted independents over the major parties, because the major parties are so close together and so far removed from the issues that the commoner is suffering and are interested in.

Interesting how its only the people who voted to leave the EU are crackpots
Everybody who voted to stay knew exactly what they were doing and are obviously intelligent

Interchange "independents" for "to leave the EU"

I agree with you MT_79. Intelligent people have had enough of being treated as unintelligent by other self interested people

I've said exactly that to a Liberal senator and a Labor ex-Premier this week

Not all who voted to leave are idiots. Just those who thought that leaving would suddenly fix all the problems. Pauline Hanson (first time around) advocated solving the national debt by simply getting the reserve bank to print more money. People believed that it was a great idea and some people voted for her because of that.

Would have though intelligent people would be able to read what was actually said and understand it. Lol.

[Jimmy_041]

Latest update:
1,459 postal votes counted and Williams clawed back 180 votes
Georganas is now only 167 votes in front with 2,951 to count

AEC will still show a Labor win but I reckon Antony would say a Lib win on that trend (well I am anyway)

I'm not sure how this happened but Georganis is now 144 in front with 2,951 to count

There are also 1,599 "Provisional" votes to be counted - I've no idea what they are. Just checking....