26 & 27 / 10 / 2018 (Posted 8:10am Friday 26/10/18)
The Caulfield Carnival is done, the Mooney Valley Carnival this week & the VRC Carnival the following week. Don’t you just love this time of year? (Did I just ask a Bruce-ism type rhetorical question?). Of course we do, don’t we?
As my previews have been getting longer by the week, this type of ‘self-indulgent diatribe’ (probably best reserved for a ‘BS Ad’ in prime time) is becoming dire. Still behind 18% on Outlay.
Previews can initially wait this week. The great Winx is going for an unprecedented 4th WS Cox Plate this Saturday & an attempt at Immortality.
Driving home this week, through a lack of a suitable alternative & an obvious need to avail myself of unintelligent ramblings, I endured the ‘Heckle & Jeckle’ Footy Show (rather than the Titled ‘Sports Show’). As such, I heard ‘John West’ mutter a statement regarding Winx & her place in the ‘Order of Australian Equine Status’. Rowe (that authority on all things racing) made statements like; “… I rate the Melbourne Cup as a superior horse race to the Cox Plate…” & “… for Me, Winx is behind Makybe Diva, Phar Lap & Black Caviar as the best Australian horses in history…” Blah, blah, blah. Regardless of whether we agree or disagree with the fat man’s statements, it does make one ponder who is the best, doesn’t it?
FWIW, I personally feel that the Cox Plate is the TRUE indicator of greatness due to the fairness & consistency of the weights scale. That said, it does provide a huge advantage to the juveniles because they carry significantly less weight, with the Fillies carrying 48.5 kgs & the Colts 49 kgs.
The Melbourne Cup is a handicap & as such, the weight scale is unfair. Case in point; Super Impose in 1991. He ran an enormous 4th carrying 59.5 kgs as Top weight that year to be beaten by Let’s Elope, carrying just 49 kgs - & there are plenty of other examples.
I think Makybe Diva carried 56.5 kgs in her 3rd Cup Victory (still ½ kgs under WFA). She did win the Cox Plate @ WFA & also the BMW in Sydney. One could certainly mount an argument in support of her, but for mine, her overall record is far less impressive than Winx’s – 3 Cups aside.
FWIW, if Winx does win her 4th Cox Plate, she just has to go undisputed No.1 IMHO. Despite ‘Crowie’ putting her 4th! She’s dominated Group 1 Racing for years. It will be exciting to watch on Saturday, despite the poor 8 horse field.
So to this week’s Preview…
The Valley, Friday Night – MR 7 – The Manikato Stakes 1200mA high quality field this year, with a number of overseas horses in the mix. There’s been a heap of money for
US Navy Flag, now into 6/1. The weight scale for this race suggests the 3yr old filly
Sunlight has a big advantage, particularly if she can ‘get a breather’ in the lead. Her gate & racing pattern, suggests she’ll be going like a ‘scalded cat’ in front here.
That will have 2 possible outcomes I think, either; she gets it all her own way & they just can’t catch her, or, it sets it up for those horses back in the pack ready to utilise the camber of the Valley track around the turn & into the straight, running right past her. I would think she gets some ‘company’ in the lead with the likes of
Houtzen &
Jungle Edge going forward, as well as
Invincible Star.I’m looking for a ‘run on’ horse that’s about midfield, in the ‘ruck’, getting on the back of another between the 500m & 300m ready to pounce in the short straight. It is the short straight here at The Valley, that always worries me. It’s not conducive to back markers making a heap of ground late & there is often a ‘leader’s bias’ on this track. Let’s face it, Mooney Valley is a ‘country track’ in the city, & as such, you need to be in a good spot at the top of the straight or you’re ‘cooked’.
There’s a
$50K Trifecta Jackpot here, so that’s certainly worth having a crack.
I have settled on
Voodoo Lad, simply because it’s an open race. The Powered Price of $18 is over the odds for this runner IMHO, I think he runs top 5, so I took the $4.60 the Place early in the Week. He’s 2 from 2 Track/Distance, Placed 9 from 12 over 6 furlongs, I’ve got him a $10 & $3.20 chance, so he’s overs for mine. Happy to go with him despite the openness of the race.
Backing: Voodoo Lad 1 x 5 Units
Trifecta: 4, 8, 10 / 1, 2, 4, 8, 9, 10, 14 / Field (25%) 5 Units
The Valley, Saturday – MR 9 – The WS Cox Plate – 2040mHere it is. A chance at History & Immortality. Much of the nation, race goer & novice alike, all hoping for the mare to win again. I pose the question; In Racing, is there room for sentiment or what might control the heart? Personally, I would answer by replying; “No, it all comes down to my wallet.”
So I have already done the unthinkable, the unmentionable, the ultimate betrayal - I’ve backed against her!
Does that make me ‘Un-Australian’?
Perhaps. But the $12 Boosted on the Godolphin runner
Benbatl was too tempting to ignore. I’ve taken him for 3 Units the Win. I think there is value in the Pick 4 too, having Winx as a ‘stand-out’ to run 2nd.
Look, I think she’ll win, but I can’t help chasing the ‘value’. So I’m willing to ‘Gamble Responsibly’.
The disappointing 8 horse field should see her beat them, but risking a small loss for a better return is what this game is all about, isn’t it?
Backing: Benbatl straight out for 3 Units
Exacta: 1 / 6 for 2 Units
Pick 4: 1, 2, 4 / 6 / Field / Field (55%) for 5 Units
The Valley, Saturday – MR 8 – The Mooney Valley Gold Cup – 2500mSo many variables in this race. Is there a Melbourne Cup place getter here?
Big Duke has burned me this Spring. It appears I had over-estimated this bloke’s ability. He may well burn me here by winning, but I can’t risk any more on him – hasn’t performed.
I have only one word; Godolphin.
They are winning everything.
Prize Money was OK first up in the Herbert Power. He died on his run behind the unbelievable
Yucatan but he’s now had a start here & I’m staggered by the $8 the Place on Ubet.
This time last Spring,
The Taj Mahal was a serious threat in all races he raced in. Is he the same horse 12 months later? The gate is a concern here. This race appears to be another battle between Waller & Weir. The classic Sydney v Melbourne (the ‘Bool) rivalry. Concede Waller probably holds the key to the race.
Patrick Erin is an under-rated stayer but the weight might tell on him late.
Egg Tart is another who could win this race – she ran 2nd in the Doomben Cup. I think she’s short enough at the ‘Each Way Quote’ of 8/1 though. I think she can win here.
It wouldn’t shock to see
Tosen Basil go close too. He hasn’t hit the ‘heights’ a number of good judges thought he was capable of. If ever he’s going to win a good race, this is it. He ran well in the Underwood behind
Homesman. Don’t dismiss him here – that’s good form.
Backing: Egg Tart 2 x 6 Units; Prize Money 3 Units Place
Box Trifecta: 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 13 (35%) for 4 Units
The Valley, Saturday – MR 7 – The Crystal Mile – 1600mWhat an interesting race at set weights. A good battle for the early lead in the race.
Siege of Quebec ran a good race last time for 3rd at Caulfield. Gai might have a couple of horses ready to take some riches from the Carnival. Her Derby favourite is a good animal & she has some others too;
Shoomukh goes alright.
Siege of Quebec is far too short for me. I’m with
Sovereign Nation. He's 3rd Up, 1 from 1 Track & Distance, good gate to choose from the jump – I’m thinking he’ll go back.
This isn’t an overly ‘deep’ Mile race IMHO & the Powered $15 & $3.50 is my preferred betting price.
Concede
Cliff’s Edge will be hard to beat, as will
It’s Somewhat - ran 3rd here last year so not without a hope.
Prized Icon is a Group 1 winner despite struggling to win only 2 other races from 30.
Backing: Sovereign Nation 1 x 5 Units
Pick 4: 1, 3, 8 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 9 / Field / Field (5%) for 4 Units
The Valley, Saturday – MR 5 – The Australia Stakes – 1300m
I’m keen to follow one here in the Philip Stokes colt;
More Than Exceed. Read an interesting article this week on the plight of Caulfield Trainers being ‘evicted’ to Pakenham, of which Stokes is one, having just moved to Melbourne himself. He’s a good trainer & building some success over there. Worth a little wager, even if the colours aren’t my cup of tea, $12 Powered & $3.30 is fine.
Backing: More than Exceed 1 x 4 Units
Three you go Lads. I find this meeting difficult each year, so prepared to ‘load up’ next week when we move to Headquarters. Enjoy watching the Mare making History tomorrow.
Derby Day is my favourite Race Day of the year next Saturday. Endeavouring to fill the coffers ready for an assault on Tuesday, seeking the Exotics in the Cup.
Until then…