Coronavirus (Covid19)

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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby amber_fluid » Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:07 pm

gazzamagoo wrote:
Trader wrote:
Psyber wrote:The solution?

CV19 volunteers.png


While that's just a meme meant as a bit of light entertainment, I'll bite.

While there are some that don't believe Covid 19 exists, there are many who know it exists, but believe the current method for dealing with it is not rational.

Look at our current outbreak, 15 cases, all whom attended/work at The Greek or the Winery.
SA Health have identified 210 people from these sites.

So who should be isolating?

The 15 infected - obviously.
The 210 close contacts - Yes.
The 3800 contacts of close contacts - ok.
The 1.5million South Australians? - I don't think so.

So because I question if it is proportional for the 4th ring of the ven diagram to be thrust into lockdown does that mean I don't believe in Covid?

Covid exists, and the delta variant kills 0.2% of people that catch it. 98% of those that die have other factors that contribute to their death.

For young healthy individuals, you're a 24,999 in 25,000 chance of surviving if you catch it.

With 3 rings of isolation ahead of me, then a 99.996% chance of surviving even if it makes it through to the 4th ring, I'm very comfortable to say putting me in a lockdown for 7 days is unreasonable.

Allow people to get vaccinated.
Have your contract tracing.
Isolate people who get it, their close contacts, or even contacts of close contacts.
Allow anyone else who wants to isolate themselves to live their lives in solitude.

Don't force the rest of us to shut down our lives 'out of an abundance of caution'.

Brilliant!


Yep shoot that through to the Premier and let’s get back to work and rebuilding some normality here.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby am Bays » Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:12 pm

Trader wrote:
am Bays wrote:That's basically what NSW tried. it's the emergence of the, 3rd and 4th generation of spreaders (close contacts of generation one and two) of who aren't in isolation or having limitation on on their movements because their infection was unknown at the time is what is allowing to spread.

The quick hard lockdown helps gets it contained initially then you can start lifting in a controlled manner which is what Stevens and Marshall implied they would like to be able to announce on Tuesday

Trader you know that there are going to be negative tests on day one who on day five are possibly going to come back positive this may create more sites of concern.

Restrictions (preferred)/lockdowns help control the spread initially. The known unknowns out in the community when it first emerges.

As you said 100 pages back probably, the testing is only accurate to the to 48-72 hours before the swab, hence why the testing of contacts needs to occur several times over 14 days.


NSW lost control as they didn't chase down the close contacts. They blurred the line between contacts of close contacts and the general public. They haven't isolated rings 2 and 3.

We are different. As I said in my post, isolate rings 2 and 3, lock them up for 14 days and you'll get no complaints from me. But that's 4,000 people, not 1.5million.

Sure, if we lose control of the contact tracing and then can't be confident we have rings 2 and 3 under control, sure, look for some restrictions (like stage 2, 3 or 4) at that point in time.

We have the initial rings under control yet have still imposed stage 5 lockdowns on everyone.

Agreed, there will be more +ve cases come out who were -ve on day 1 and +ve on day 5 or even 13. But these are people from ring 2, at worst ring 3. None of them will come from ring 4, so why is ring 4 in stage 5 lockdown?

Ring 1, 2 and 3 can go into 14 day iso, ring 4 should have level 2 restrictions if they want added protection, not level 5.


I hear what you are saying I still don't think that controls effectively for the emergence of exposure sites in the initial phase of an outbreak with the contract tracing period where we know a fleeting contact could infect others (unexplained exposure of people sitting in different areas of AAMI stadium Melb). Or in other words we still don't know if we've identified all the relevant people in Rings two and three.

The ring four people you're identifying could actually have Ring two and three outliers still in them which is why I'm referencing the NSW example as you suggested

Where I think what you are suggesting has merit is a quicker transition out of lockdown/severe restrictions of those once there is greater certainty of containment.

Seriously I would like this to be over ASAP and life in SA can get back to what it was like in June this year. I want SANFL footy to return.

I have airfares booked and paid for, for September.....
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby whufc » Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:24 pm

In all seriousness AM.

How do you see the 'Covid Era' ending. What's the end game here?

Surely in 10 years time we cant be having snap lockdowns etc. That's not living!!!!
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Trader » Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:40 pm

am Bays wrote:
Trader wrote:
am Bays wrote:That's basically what NSW tried. it's the emergence of the, 3rd and 4th generation of spreaders (close contacts of generation one and two) of who aren't in isolation or having limitation on on their movements because their infection was unknown at the time is what is allowing to spread.

The quick hard lockdown helps gets it contained initially then you can start lifting in a controlled manner which is what Stevens and Marshall implied they would like to be able to announce on Tuesday

Trader you know that there are going to be negative tests on day one who on day five are possibly going to come back positive this may create more sites of concern.

Restrictions (preferred)/lockdowns help control the spread initially. The known unknowns out in the community when it first emerges.

As you said 100 pages back probably, the testing is only accurate to the to 48-72 hours before the swab, hence why the testing of contacts needs to occur several times over 14 days.


NSW lost control as they didn't chase down the close contacts. They blurred the line between contacts of close contacts and the general public. They haven't isolated rings 2 and 3.

We are different. As I said in my post, isolate rings 2 and 3, lock them up for 14 days and you'll get no complaints from me. But that's 4,000 people, not 1.5million.

Sure, if we lose control of the contact tracing and then can't be confident we have rings 2 and 3 under control, sure, look for some restrictions (like stage 2, 3 or 4) at that point in time.

We have the initial rings under control yet have still imposed stage 5 lockdowns on everyone.

Agreed, there will be more +ve cases come out who were -ve on day 1 and +ve on day 5 or even 13. But these are people from ring 2, at worst ring 3. None of them will come from ring 4, so why is ring 4 in stage 5 lockdown?

Ring 1, 2 and 3 can go into 14 day iso, ring 4 should have level 2 restrictions if they want added protection, not level 5.


I hear what you are saying I still don't think that controls effectively for the emergence of exposure sites in the initial phase of an outbreak with the contract tracing period where we know a fleeting contact could infect others (unexplained exposure of people sitting in different areas of AAMI stadium Melb). Or in other words we still don't know if we've identified all the relevant people in Rings two and three.

The ring four people you're identifying could actually have Ring two and three outliers still in them which is why I'm referencing the NSW example as you suggested

Where I think what you are suggesting has merit is a quicker transition out of lockdown/severe restrictions of those once there is greater certainty of containment.

Seriously I would like this to be over ASAP and life in SA can get back to what it was like in June this year. I want SANFL footy to return.

I have airfares booked and paid for, for September.....


Don't forget, that just cause someone is currently in ring 4, doesn't mean we can't move them into ring 1,2 or 3 in the future should they be identified at a later date.

The other thing I don't understand is why the last lockdown they only needed 3 days, yet this time they want 7?

Lets not forget, the only ring we have to identify is ring 1. Rings 2 and 3 are protections, if there are ring 3 people who are in ring 4, that's not an issue until they should have been ring 1 (are positive).

So far, everyone in ring 1 (the 15 positives), were all identified as having attended one of the two spreading events by Monday night, before the lockdown even started.
No one has been identified that we needed to post the lockdown starting.
So the lockdown could have been zero days and we would have been fine. Giving them a couple of days to find some more is one thing, but giving them 7 full days? Why?
And now that we are three days down the track, why is everyone in tier 4 still in lockdown?

Once again, not saying tier 2 or 3 should be let out early, leave them in 14 day iso. Also not saying we can't bring more people into tiers 1,2 or 3 if they happen to be identified over the coming days, but to keep 1.5m people in 7 day lockdown (and the threat of extension) is not proportional to a virus that 24,999 out of 25,000 healthy people survive.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby am Bays » Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:54 pm

whufc wrote:In all seriousness AM.

How do you see the 'Covid Era' ending. What's the end game here?

Surely in 10 years time we cant be having snap lockdowns etc. That's not living!!!!

n the proviso that we develop a degree of herd immunity through vaccinations (70-80%), we continue to check in for the foreseeable future, the virus as it mutates becomes less dangerous and we learn from this and future outbreaks.

I see lockdowns becoming less necessary or not required at all to the point there may be localised restrictions that are recommendations rather than mandated (think the first SARS COVID outbreak in 2002-03 that really didnt impact anyone outside of Asia (masks were recommended when flying to Asian countries).

What i also hope will prevent future lockdowns is that there is a greater awareness of the seriousness of these types of respiratory virus so the normalised behaviour is that when people are sick they actually stay home (self isolate) and get tested so they don't infect others which is what used to happen pre 2020 during the annual flu season - "a new normal". And where there are outbreaks we can better track people with greater alacrity and accuracy

What I do think though is it is a matter of time before there is a 3rd version of this virus or a totally different virus that will present the same challenges but hopefully we've learnt from this experience so that we can manage it better in the future.

Seriously I dont like lockdowns any more than the next person
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Trader » Fri Jul 23, 2021 4:28 pm

whufc wrote:How do you see the 'Covid Era' ending. What's the end game here?


I would be far less critical of the current overreaction by the trio if there was hope on the cards.

am Bays wrote:On the proviso that we develop a degree of herd immunity through vaccinations (70-80%)


I agree that herd immunity could lead to less likely lockdowns, however the medical community has constantly told us the vaccines don't prevent us from catching it, and don't prevent us from passing it on. With this in mind, how does herd immunity work?

According to WHO:

'Herd immunity' is the indirect protection from an infectious disease that happens when a population is immune either through vaccination or immunity developed through previous infection. WHO supports achieving 'herd immunity' through vaccination, not by allowing a disease to spread through any segment of the population, as this would result in unnecessary cases and deaths.


But given the Covid vaccines don't prevent the spread of the disease, Herd Immunity isn't possible through vaccine. The only way to achieve herd immunity to covid at the moment is to let people catch it, which is exactly what the current powers that be in Australia are preventing.

With this in mind, I can't see a way out of this using the current techniques.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby am Bays » Fri Jul 23, 2021 4:53 pm

I agree vaccination is no guarantee to stop the spread but from the mja in may this year: https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2021/effectiveness-covid-19-vaccines-findings-real-world-studies
We can draw important conclusions from these non-randomised studies of vaccine effectiveness. Most importantly the currently available COVID-19 vaccines appear to be effective in preventing severe complications and deaths from COVID-19 in adults of all ages.


So vaccinations provide the first line of protection they then allow for a safer spread of the virus where if you do get the disease you are more likely to not to get as sick and die from it" (ring one)

Vaccinations helps us manage the consequences of Covid better a bit like what they've done with TB, Measles, Scarlet Fever and Small pox

In many ways what I'm trying to say today has been there is no single silver bullet to this. We need multiple strategies to fight this virus:

Vaccinations, restrictions checking in and once were at a certain level controlled spread made possible through a previous strategy of vaccinations.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby The Bedge » Fri Jul 23, 2021 5:03 pm

Has anyone seen the Ch7 News advert.. is so doomsday it's actually kind of funny.

"Bringing you all the latest on the breaking Covid situation"

Then proceeds to insert snippets of comments over the time that makes it sound like the world is ending..

"Walking on a knifes edge"
"This could be the worst one ever"
"Situation took a turn for the worse"
"It's looking dire"
"Scary"
"Reeking havoc"
"Out of control"
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby locky801 » Fri Jul 23, 2021 5:16 pm

The Bedge wrote:Has anyone seen the Ch7 News advert.. is so doomsday it's actually kind of funny.

"Bringing you all the latest on the breaking Covid situation"

Then proceeds to insert snippets of comments over the time that makes it sound like the world is ending..

"Walking on a knifes edge"
"This could be the worst one ever"
"Situation took a turn for the worse"
"It's looking dire"
"Scary"
"Reeking havoc"
"Out of control"



Geez thats strange for Ch 7 NOT
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby LaughingKookaburra » Fri Jul 23, 2021 5:18 pm

locky801 wrote:
The Bedge wrote:Has anyone seen the Ch7 News advert.. is so doomsday it's actually kind of funny.

"Bringing you all the latest on the breaking Covid situation"

Then proceeds to insert snippets of comments over the time that makes it sound like the world is ending..

"Walking on a knifes edge"
"This could be the worst one ever"
"Situation took a turn for the worse"
"It's looking dire"
"Scary"
"Reeking havoc"
"Out of control"



Geez thats strange for Ch 7 NOT


C7 have always been a disgrace with that sort of stuff.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby gazzamagoo » Fri Jul 23, 2021 5:26 pm

The Bedge wrote:Has anyone seen the Ch7 News advert.. is so doomsday it's actually kind of funny.

"Bringing you all the latest on the breaking Covid situation"

Then proceeds to insert snippets of comments over the time that makes it sound like the world is ending..

"Walking on a knifes edge"
"This could be the worst one ever"
"Situation took a turn for the worse"
"It's looking dire"
"Scary"
"Reeking havoc"
"Out of control"

Reeking havoc? You're right! It STINKS!!
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby stan » Fri Jul 23, 2021 5:48 pm

It's very typical of C7.

Beat a story out if nothing, it's there wheel house right there.

1 new case today only and they are still beating the drum like we are all dropping dead.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby FlyingHigh » Fri Jul 23, 2021 6:02 pm

am Bays wrote:
whufc wrote:In all seriousness AM.

How do you see the 'Covid Era' ending. What's the end game here?

Surely in 10 years time we cant be having snap lockdowns etc. That's not living!!!!

n the proviso that we develop a degree of herd immunity through vaccinations (70-80%), we continue to check in for the foreseeable future, the virus as it mutates becomes less dangerous and we learn from this and future outbreaks.

I see lockdowns becoming less necessary or not required at all to the point there may be localised restrictions that are recommendations rather than mandated (think the first SARS COVID outbreak in 2002-03 that really didnt impact anyone outside of Asia (masks were recommended when flying to Asian countries).

What i also hope will prevent future lockdowns is that there is a greater awareness of the seriousness of these types of respiratory virus so the normalised behaviour is that when people are sick they actually stay home (self isolate) and get tested so they don't infect others which is what used to happen pre 2020 during the annual flu season - "a new normal". And where there are outbreaks we can better track people with greater alacrity and accuracy

What I do think though is it is a matter of time before there is a 3rd version of this virus or a totally different virus that will present the same challenges but hopefully we've learnt from this experience so that we can manage it better in the future.

Seriously I dont like lockdowns any more than the next person


This part to me is the main crux.
This strain isn't as bad as the original, but still strong enough to seriously knock people around, which is where the ignorant saying it is just "Flu" are wrong.
In time as it gets weaker it will become like the common flu in terms of the body being able to handle it, but then we'll the I told you so "w@nkers like Bolt saying it was always never as bad, there is some sort of conspiracy theory etc etc. They point to 1000 people dying of the flu each year but never how bad Co-Vid could have been if we didn't do anything.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Trader » Fri Jul 23, 2021 6:14 pm

am Bays wrote:I agree vaccination is no guarantee to stop the spread but from the mja in may this year: https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2021/effectiveness-covid-19-vaccines-findings-real-world-studies
We can draw important conclusions from these non-randomised studies of vaccine effectiveness. Most importantly the currently available COVID-19 vaccines appear to be effective in preventing severe complications and deaths from COVID-19 in adults of all ages.


So vaccinations provide the first line of protection they then allow for a safer spread of the virus where if you do get the disease you are more likely to not to get as sick and die from it" (ring one)

Vaccinations helps us manage the consequences of Covid better a bit like what they've done with TB, Measles, Scarlet Fever and Small pox

In many ways what I'm trying to say today has been there is no single silver bullet to this. We need multiple strategies to fight this virus:

Vaccinations, restrictions checking in and once were at a certain level controlled spread made possible through a previous strategy of vaccinations.


Yup, happy to agree the vaccine minimises the impact of the disease on the individual, however that doesn't have anything to do with herd immunity.

For mine they need to provide people access to the vaccine, then after people have had the opportunity, open up.
It shouldn't be based on achieving 70% uptake, but rather 100% access.

Remove the age limits (ie allow those under 40 access), once they've had say 2 weeks access**, then boom, no more restrictions, you had your chance and chose not to.

(**That's two weeks on top of the recommended period between first and 2nd doses, not two weeks from access to the first dose)

For mine, that's the path out of here, not uptake rates.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby amber_fluid » Fri Jul 23, 2021 6:32 pm

Mr Marshall or Mrs Spurrier.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Booney » Fri Jul 23, 2021 6:36 pm

You reckon they're not earning it? F*ck me....
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby amber_fluid » Fri Jul 23, 2021 6:44 pm

Booney wrote:You reckon they're not earning it? F*ck me....


Of course they are.
BUT they can and have a choice…………
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Psyber » Fri Jul 23, 2021 7:10 pm

Unfortunately, even people who don't have the virus, and are therefore free to travel under those proposed rules, can subsequently pick it up from some casual contact who does have it, even if without knowing they have, and then in their further travels pass it on again, without necessarily ever manifesting symptoms themselves. This allows spread to occur to those who are vulnerable and some may die as a consequence.

OK it is probably a little rare, and seen as something of a long shot - but it can happen, and then escalate rapidly.
So, until we have the vulnerable vaccinated, and a high percentage of potential symptomless carriers too, we have to be careful.

Ignoring even that smaller risk to the vulnerable is at least negligent and selfish, and at worst callous - or if deliberate even murderous...
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby amber_fluid » Fri Jul 23, 2021 7:23 pm

Psyber wrote:Unfortunately, even people who don't have the virus, and are therefore free to travel under those proposed rules, can subsequently pick it up from some casual contact who does have it, even if without knowing they have, and then in their further travels pass it on again, without necessarily ever manifesting symptoms themselves. This allows spread to occur to those who are vulnerable and some may die as a consequence.

OK it is probably a little rare, and seen as something of a long shot - but it can happen, and then escalate rapidly.
So, until we have the vulnerable vaccinated, and a high percentage of potential symptomless carriers too, we have to be careful.

Ignoring even that smaller risk to the vulnerable is at least negligent and selfish, and at worst callous - or if deliberate even murderous...


What are we waiting for?
Most other western countries have a high % of vaccination already.
Why can’t the government roll this out quicker if that’s the answer?
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby daysofourlives » Fri Jul 23, 2021 7:38 pm

Lightning McQueen wrote:
Trader wrote:I can't believe there are so many people who were at the greek and tenafeate that haven't been tested yet. As soon as it became a tier one site they should have been forced to be tested within 24 hours.
That was monday night, it's now Friday FFS.

We the public get 6 hours notice of a lockdown yet SA Health can't get 200 tests done in 4 days???

Stop testing 18,000 irrelevant people each day and stick to the target testing.

By the way, have we ever had a positive test come back from someone who wasn't identified at a tier 1 or 2 site?

This open slather approach and letting the general public clog lines cause they walked past a tier 4 site is just wasting resources.

Daisy is going to have a field day with that post mate.


Just a casual like mate, but yeah this variant is highly contagious :roll:
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