Coronavirus (Covid19)

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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby The Bedge » Wed Jul 28, 2021 1:35 pm

MW wrote:how many cases and deaths if we did nothing?

I'm not a scientist, but right now I'd be more worried getting behind the wheel of a car than running into someone with COVID.

Sick of hearing that "one death is too many" - doesn't seem too many when we want to send soliders to war, or the number of deaths directly associated to smoking/drinking etc.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby The Bedge » Wed Jul 28, 2021 1:39 pm

SA Population: 1.771 million
Vaccines administered: 816, 929

So we should be pretty safe? :P
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Lightning McQueen » Wed Jul 28, 2021 1:42 pm

The Bedge wrote:
MW wrote:how many cases and deaths if we did nothing?

I'm not a scientist, but right now I'd be more worried getting behind the wheel of a car than running into someone with COVID.

Sick of hearing that "one death is too many" - doesn't seem too many when we want to send soliders to war, or the number of deaths directly associated to smoking/drinking etc.


The COVID doesn't release when you run into them.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby The Bedge » Wed Jul 28, 2021 1:48 pm

Genuine question.. Why do we deal in daily reported number of cases, and not daily reporting number of deaths?
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Wedgie » Wed Jul 28, 2021 1:51 pm

The Bedge wrote:Genuine question.. Why do we deal in daily reported number of cases, and not daily reporting number of deaths?

Because the deaths don't overload the health system, that's what they're worried about.
If the health system gets overrun then those numbers of deaths for other reasons quoted before will be a lot higher.
And let's face it, our health system is so crap a couple of kids stubbing their toes could overrun it.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby The Bedge » Wed Jul 28, 2021 1:52 pm

Wedgie wrote:
The Bedge wrote:Genuine question.. Why do we deal in daily reported number of cases, and not daily reporting number of deaths?

Because the deaths don't overload the health system, that's what they're worried about.
If the health system gets overrun then those numbers of deaths for other reasons quoted before will be a lot higher.
And let's face it, our health system is so crap a couple of kids stubbing their toes could overrun it.

Gotcha, that makes sense then.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Booney » Wed Jul 28, 2021 1:54 pm

Wedgie wrote:
The Bedge wrote:Genuine question.. Why do we deal in daily reported number of cases, and not daily reporting number of deaths?

Because the deaths don't overload the health system, that's what they're worried about.
If the health system gets overrun then those numbers of deaths for other reasons quoted before will be a lot higher.
And let's face it, our health system is so crap a couple of kids stubbing their toes could overrun it.


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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Booney » Wed Jul 28, 2021 1:56 pm

The Bedge wrote:
Wedgie wrote:
The Bedge wrote:Genuine question.. Why do we deal in daily reported number of cases, and not daily reporting number of deaths?

Because the deaths don't overload the health system, that's what they're worried about.
If the health system gets overrun then those numbers of deaths for other reasons quoted before will be a lot higher.
And let's face it, our health system is so crap a couple of kids stubbing their toes could overrun it.

Gotcha, that makes sense then.


NSW has around 800 ICU beds, currently 56 of them have COVID patients in them. 22 of them on respirators.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Trader » Wed Jul 28, 2021 2:01 pm

MW wrote:
The Bedge wrote:2021
11, 860 deaths from cancer
3, 541 deaths from dementia
3, 074 deaths from heart disease
2, 782 deaths from respiratory disease (pneumonia, influenzea) inc 1,569 Chronic lower respiratory disease (see below)
2, 072 deaths from cerebrovascular disease inc strokes.
1, 569 deaths from chronic lower respiratory disease (bronchitis, emphysema, asthma)
1, 187 deaths from road fatalities in Australia
1, 051 deaths from diabetes
60 deaths from road fatalities in South Australia

Total coronavirus cases in SA since beginning: 857
Total coronavirus deaths in SA since beginning: 4

Then for some fun (thanks google):
Texting while driving kills 6,000 Amercians annually.
Hippos kill 2,900 people annually in Africa
600 people annually die from autoerotic asphyxiation
450 people die each year from falling out of bed.
100 people in Russia are killed from icicles
Vending machines claim 13 people a year falling over.
Evil ants kill 30 people annually.
Dogs slightly more dangerous at 34 victims.


how many cases and deaths if we did nothing?


An interesting debate that no one knows the answer to, not the anti-lockdown types, and neither medical experts.

However, if we wanted to estimate things, it might be reasonable to work on the following:

1,771,000 South Aussies.

Now there were 213 'really close' contacts identified between The Greek and The Winery who spent several hours in poorly ventilated rooms with highly infected individuals at the peak of their infectious period.
Of this 213, 16 caught Covid, or 7.51%.

Now, the delta death rate world wide is 0.2%

Of those who die with covid, 2.53% are dying without other comorbidity.

So, if we just let it run wild, it would not be unreasonable to suggest:

1,771,000 south aussies.
133,002 would catch Covid.
266 would die with covid.
6.73 would die from covid alone.

Is 7 people too many?
Are 7 people worth billions of dollars?

We'll never know.

What the above doesn't take into account is the other deaths that will occur as hospitals overflow, etc.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby The Bedge » Wed Jul 28, 2021 2:01 pm

Booney wrote:NSW has around 800 ICU beds, currently 56 of them have COVID patients in them. 22 of them on respirators.

Would it not be more / equally beneficial then to announce bed utilisation % on the updates as well to put things in perspective?

"Today we have xx new cases, currently hospitals are operating at xx% capacity"

People are surely more likely to be cautious if they realise that support network is almost exhausted
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby am Bays » Wed Jul 28, 2021 2:09 pm

Wedgie wrote:
The Bedge wrote:Genuine question.. Why do we deal in daily reported number of cases, and not daily reporting number of deaths?

Because the deaths don't overload the health system, that's what they're worried about.
If the health system gets overrun then those numbers of deaths for other reasons quoted before will be a lot higher.
And let's face it, our health system is so crap a couple of kids stubbing their toes could overrun it.


Roughly 100 000 separations* in SALHN a year, less than 100 SAC 1 incidents (generally deaths as a result of health system errors) a year and less than 200 Serious harm events (SAC 2).

* And that's not even including all the community contacts that occur

** IIRC correctly from 2018 (community incidents included here)

Yeah the Australian health care system is pretty crap :roll: . It's not perfect but it stands up internationally.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Booney » Wed Jul 28, 2021 2:12 pm

The Bedge wrote:
Booney wrote:NSW has around 800 ICU beds, currently 56 of them have COVID patients in them. 22 of them on respirators.

Would it not be more / equally beneficial then to announce bed utilisation % on the updates as well to put things in perspective?

"Today we have xx new cases, currently hospitals are operating at xx% capacity"

People are surely more likely to be cautious if they realise that support network is almost exhausted


Perhaps, but then you'd need to put in emergency department waiting times, ambulance waiting times, peoples elective surgery that is being delayed etc etc to give a full picture of the burden on the system.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Wedgie » Wed Jul 28, 2021 2:13 pm

Booney wrote:
Wedgie wrote:
The Bedge wrote:Genuine question.. Why do we deal in daily reported number of cases, and not daily reporting number of deaths?

Because the deaths don't overload the health system, that's what they're worried about.
If the health system gets overrun then those numbers of deaths for other reasons quoted before will be a lot higher.
And let's face it, our health system is so crap a couple of kids stubbing their toes could overrun it.


One of the best in the world, consider yourself lucky to have access to it.

Maybe I should have said hospitals and not health system.
Poor bastards getting ramped, it's poorly run.
I was in Emergency once for 8 hours. Place was overflowing with people, bloody and screaming, on floors, in hallways, etc.
Got held there so long as they said they were waiting for a bed in the heart ward to open up.
At 4am I finally get transferred to the heart ward who tell me they don't know what the hold up was as 90% of the ward was empty. Was told this is the norm.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Booney » Wed Jul 28, 2021 2:17 pm

Wedgie wrote:
Booney wrote:
Wedgie wrote:
The Bedge wrote:Genuine question.. Why do we deal in daily reported number of cases, and not daily reporting number of deaths?

Because the deaths don't overload the health system, that's what they're worried about.
If the health system gets overrun then those numbers of deaths for other reasons quoted before will be a lot higher.
And let's face it, our health system is so crap a couple of kids stubbing their toes could overrun it.


One of the best in the world, consider yourself lucky to have access to it.

Maybe I should have said hospitals and not health system.
Poor bastards getting ramped, it's poorly run.
I was in Emergency once for 8 hours. Place was overflowing with people, bloody and screaming, on floors, in hallways, etc.
Got held there so long as they said they were waiting for a bed in the heart ward to open up.
At 4am I finally get transferred to the heart ward who tell me they don't know what the hold up was as 90% of the ward was empty. Was told this is the norm.


As am notes, it's not perfect, but it's bloody good. You waiting just 8 hours ( in reality a mere speck in time ), you were treated, I trust you came out with a clean bill of health or a program to get you better and it cost you nothing. Bloody good.

On the emergency departments I actually back the Libs here, they're upgrading Lyell Mc Emerg, QEH is getting a massive rebuild, Flinders has had an upgrade and dedicated mental health facilities are coming on line, one of the biggest hold ups in our emergency departments at this time.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Mr Beefy » Wed Jul 28, 2021 2:24 pm

Trader wrote:
MW wrote:
The Bedge wrote:2021
11, 860 deaths from cancer
3, 541 deaths from dementia
3, 074 deaths from heart disease
2, 782 deaths from respiratory disease (pneumonia, influenzea) inc 1,569 Chronic lower respiratory disease (see below)
2, 072 deaths from cerebrovascular disease inc strokes.
1, 569 deaths from chronic lower respiratory disease (bronchitis, emphysema, asthma)
1, 187 deaths from road fatalities in Australia
1, 051 deaths from diabetes
60 deaths from road fatalities in South Australia

Total coronavirus cases in SA since beginning: 857
Total coronavirus deaths in SA since beginning: 4

Then for some fun (thanks google):
Texting while driving kills 6,000 Amercians annually.
Hippos kill 2,900 people annually in Africa
600 people annually die from autoerotic asphyxiation
450 people die each year from falling out of bed.
100 people in Russia are killed from icicles
Vending machines claim 13 people a year falling over.
Evil ants kill 30 people annually.
Dogs slightly more dangerous at 34 victims.


how many cases and deaths if we did nothing?


An interesting debate that no one knows the answer to, not the anti-lockdown types, and neither medical experts.

However, if we wanted to estimate things, it might be reasonable to work on the following:

1,771,000 South Aussies.

Now there were 213 'really close' contacts identified between The Greek and The Winery who spent several hours in poorly ventilated rooms with highly infected individuals at the peak of their infectious period.
Of this 213, 16 caught Covid, or 7.51%.

Now, the delta death rate world wide is 0.2%

Of those who die with covid, 2.53% are dying without other comorbidity.

So, if we just let it run wild, it would not be unreasonable to suggest:

1,771,000 south aussies.
133,002 would catch Covid.
266 would die with covid.
6.73 would die from covid alone.

Is 7 people too many?
Are 7 people worth billions of dollars?

We'll never know.

What the above doesn't take into account is the other deaths that will occur as hospitals overflow, etc.

You haven't factored in that the transmission rate is exponential.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Wedgie » Wed Jul 28, 2021 2:27 pm

Booney wrote:As am notes, it's not perfect, but it's bloody good. You waiting just 8 hours ( in reality a mere speck in time ), you were treated, I trust you came out with a clean bill of health or a program to get you better and it cost you nothing.

No, none of those. Had to pay for private treatment at Ashford and have been doing so for more than 15 years now.
Public system didn't have any infrastructure to cope with heart failure I was told.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby The Bedge » Wed Jul 28, 2021 2:27 pm

Mr Beefy wrote:You haven't factored in that the transmission rate is exponential.

Please, use "Highly transmissible" 8)
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Trader » Wed Jul 28, 2021 2:40 pm

Mr Beefy wrote:You haven't factored in that the transmission rate is exponential.


Is it though?
I agree it's higher than a 'fleeting contact', but sitting in a room for a number of hours with an active case wouldn't be unsimilar to having cases all around you.

Even if we then look at a country where it did get out of control and it was everywhere and the 'exponential' factor might be at play.

India.
31.6m cases, 1.366b people = 2.27% catch it. - possibly not the best example as their testing rate would be low so could easily be double or triple the number of actual cases (if not more).

America, a basket case according to many on here, they hit 10.6% of the population caught covid.
Spain 9%
Brazil 9%
UK 8.4%
Italy 7.1%
Germany 4.4%
Russia 4.3%

No doubt the 7.5% I used was based on a small sample size and shouldn't be considered the definitive answer, but based on the above countries where it did get out of control and was wide spread, I'm not sure the 7.5% used in my calcs is all that bad an assumption.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Dutchy » Wed Jul 28, 2021 2:53 pm

Australia still seems going down the elimination route, why???
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19)

Postby Bum Crack » Wed Jul 28, 2021 2:58 pm

Dutchy wrote:Australia still seems going down the elimination route, why???

are you allowed to go to Tassie this weekend now we're out of lockdown?
So you've seen everything have you?
Yep
Have you ever seen a man eat his own head?
No
Well you haven't seen everything then have you.
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