Hogg Division IV 2014

[RKJ]

This division has been crazy competitive, I really have enjoyed it so far and at this stage it is time for the contenders to stand up and put a stamp on the run home. I hope to do exactly that and will be looking to bring in a big gun this week and a big gun next week. Obviously things can change quickly in relation to plans but that is mine at this stage.

So the question is what is your situation, answer if you wish play it close to your chest if you wish an entertaining season is certainly gonna go down to the wire in this division.

My situation is only got the 8 trades left which is a significant worry, especially since I plan to use 3 in the next 2 weeks. Leaving 5 for injuries moving forward as my team will then be completed.

[grasshopper22]

This division has been crazy competitive, I really have enjoyed it so far and at this stage it is time for the contenders to stand up and put a stamp on the run home. I hope to do exactly that and will be looking to bring in a big gun this week and a big gun next week. Obviously things can change quickly in relation to plans but that is mine at this stage.

So the question is what is your situation, answer if you wish play it close to your chest if you wish an entertaining season is certainly gonna go down to the wire in this division.

My situation is only got the 8 trades left which is a significant worry, especially since I plan to use 3 in the next 2 weeks. Leaving 5 for injuries moving forward as my team will then be completed.

Which team is yours? I'm in a similar situation with a couple more trades though, bringing in a big gun this wk also. I have no choice but to keep trading at the moment as I'm currently sitting 10th and can't afford to drop a game.

[RKJ]

I'm Adelaide Crows mate

[daysofourlives]

Updated after R15
(1) Duromine Dependent
Vs 15 W + 229
4 W + 44
8 L - 50
2 W + 35
12 W + 213

(2) The Willies
4 W + 29
8 L -77
12 W + 172
1 L -35
5 W + 80

(3) Hairy Hobbits
5 W +99 L -55
10 L -85
6 L - 67
16 W + 116
7 L - 21

(4) The Wigg Brothers
2 L -29
1 L - 44
5 W + 39
10 L -76
6 L -8

(5) FNQ Trotters
3 L - 99 W+55
15 W + 44
4 L - 39
8 L - 189
2 L - 80

(6) Da Heat
13 W + 144
11 W + 215
3 W + 67
15 W + 112
4 W + 8

(7) Daisys Duds
18 W + 340
14 W + 164
13 W + 206
11 W + 238
3 W + 21

(8) Adelaide Crows
12 W + 332
2 W + 77
1 W + 50
5 W + 189
10 W + 82

(9) Zed Force
17 W + 193
18 W + 399
14 W + 270
13 W + 294
11 W + 347

(10) Scros Swimmers
11 W + 286
3 W + 85
15 W + 133
4 W + 76
8 L - 82

Updated Ladder at the end would look something like this with points differential as a guide for %
Duromine Dependent 60 + 2957
The Willies 52 + 1741
Daisys Duds 52 + 1626
Da Heat 52 + 1192
Adelaide Crows 48 + 2319
Zed Force 48 + 2082
Scros Swimmers 40 + 1466
Hairy Hobbits 40 + 1349

Wigg Brothers 40 + 1313
FNQ Trotters 40 + 1044

Only one game went against the projections in R15 with FNQ trotters defeating Hairy Hobbits.
The projected end of season ladder has been adjusted accordingly.
I also adjusted the points differential to reflect the actual results from R15.

I might update the projections after next weeks round as things will have changed as teams trade.

[Rik E Boy]

Round 13 Results

Adelaide Crows 2714
Crack Foxes 2271

ZedForce 2594
Nutkickers 2050

The Willies 2551
Wigg Brothers 2547

Daisy's Duds 2426
FoxInSox 2014

Duromine Dependent 2675
thewonderelephants 2142

Holland's Hero's 2154
onegameatatimers 2015

FNQ Trotters 2439
hairy Hobbits 2384

DA HEAT 2332
Tongue of Fury 2175

Scros Swimmers 2561
Crawf's SuperSquad 2253

Ladder

1 Duromine Dependent 12 1 28128 25413 110.68 48
2 The Willies 11 2 27402 25801 106.21 44
3 hairy Hobbits 9 4 26654 25248 105.57 36
4 Wigg Brothers 9 4 27339 25937 105.41 36
5 FNQ Trotters 9 4 27057 25749 105.08 36
6 Daisy's Duds 9 4 27024 26027 103.83 36
7 DA HEAT 9 4 26921 26131 103.02 36
8 Adelaide Crows 8 5 28440 26519 107.24 32

9 ZedForce 8 5 27595 26823 102.88 32
10 Scros Swimmers 7 6 27392 26138 104.80 28
11 Crawf's SuperSquad 6 7 26243 26947 97.39 24
12 Crack Foxes 5 8 24328 25888 93.97 20
13 Holland's Hero's 4 9 25728 26663 96.49 16
14 Tongue of Fury 4 9 24886 26526 93.82 16
15 thewonderelephants 3 10 24587 26434 93.01 12
16 Onegameatatimers 2 11 24842 26838 92.56 8
17 Nutkickers 2 11 24496 27288 89.77 8
18 FoxInSox 0 13 24169 26861 89.98 0

A couple of teams went HUGE in this high scoring round of SuperCoach with Adelaide Crows and Duromine Dependent recording all time top ten Hogg scores in their big victories this weekend. You have to feel a bit sorry for the Crack Foxes who posted 2200 and came up 500 short with the same situation happening for the elephants who weren't so wonderful with 2100.

There are a few teams in red hot form at the moment with Scros Swimmers and Daisy's Duds enjoying extended winning streaks. FNQ Trotters isn't getting much love from Daisy's statistically driven previews but they were good enough to end the winning run of the hairy Hobbits who had beaten top opposition and were on a good trot themselves.

Adelaide Crows for all of their powerful scoring is somehow anchored in eighth and are waiting like a Seagull ready to swoop on a chip should any team above them lose the plot. Zedforce and Scros Swimmers are other teams playing well but not getting a look in at this stage. With Crawf now seemingly out of contention it seems that two very competitive sides are going to miss the finals and six very good sides will be lining up in this division again next year (not to mention the top four of Divvy V are looking pretty suave this year).

There was also a significant victory for those teams battling it out to remain in this division. Holland's Hero's and onegameatatimers were in the top eight this time last year but both sides have struggled in 2014. Holland's Hero's appear to have moved out of relegation zone strife with four matches to play after they won a crucial bout against Moe. The onegameatatimers are now 2-11 and running out of chances to remain in this league. The Hero's for their part have overtaken Tongue of Fury and have just about secured their involvement in Division IV next season, although they might need one more win to make sure of it.

regards,

REB

[grasshopper22]

Good stuff REB and days

[WOS Dragons]

I hate this game - Jamie Elliot scores 17 in the last game of the round and the team goes down by 4 points after scoring over 2500 - yuk!

[daysofourlives]

Updated after R16
(1) Duromine Dependent
Vs 15 W + 229
4 W + 44
8 L - 50
2 W + 35
12 W + 213

(2) The Willies
4 W + 29
8 L -77
12 W + 172
1 L -35
5 W + 80

(3) Hairy Hobbits
5 W +99 L -55
10 L -85
6 L - 67
16 W + 116
7 L - 21

(4) The Wigg Brothers
2 L -29
1 L - 44
5 W + 39
10 L -76
6 L -8

(5) FNQ Trotters
3 L - 99 W+55
15 W + 44
4 L - 39
8 L - 189
2 L - 80

(6) Da Heat
13 W + 144
11 W + 215 L -40
3 W + 67
15 W + 112
4 W + 8

(7) Daisys Duds
18 W + 340
14 W + 164
13 W + 206
11 W + 238
3 W + 21

(8) Adelaide Crows
12 W + 332
2 W + 77
1 W + 50
5 W + 189
10 W + 82

(9) Zed Force
17 W + 193
18 W + 399
14 W + 270
13 W + 294
11 W + 347

(10) Scros Swimmers
11 W + 286
3 W + 85
15 W + 133
4 W + 76
8 L - 82

Updated Ladder at the end would look something like this with points differential as a guide for %
Duromine Dependent 60 + 3109
The Willies 52 + 1690
Daisys Duds 52 + 1623
Adelaide Crows 48 + 2370
Zed Force 48 + 1836
Da Heat 48 + 937
Scros Swimmers 40 + 1630
FNQ Trotters 40 + 1239

Hairy Hobbits 40 + 1185
Wigg Brothers 40 + 1161


Only one game went against the projections in R16 with Da Heat losing to a bottom8 side, huge upset.
However with the margins in the games the end of season projection has FNQ Trotters move into 8th and The Hairy Hobbits drop to 9th.
With Da Heats loss it should allow Adelaide Crows into the top 4 at the end and they will be very dangerous from there.
The projected end of season ladder has been adjusted accordingly.
I also adjusted the points differential to reflect the actual results from R16.

I might update the projections after next weeks round when sides have made their Ablett adjustments.
This should have a huge impact, teams with plenty of trades will offload Ablett, some might just bank on him being back for week 1 or 2 of the SC finals and save a trade. Others may have no trades left and have no choice

[RKJ]

I'm holding him unless it's confirmed as 6 weeks. Will be upgrading Hallahan from the bench to a premium mid/fwd though to cover it

[Rik E Boy]

Results Round 14

Crack Foxes 2160
Nutkickers 1952

Adelaide Crows 2275
The Willies 2147

ZedForce 2169
FoxInSox 2016

Duromine Dependent 2312
Wigg Brothers 2116

Daisy's Duds 2184
Holland's Hero's 2023

FNQ Trotters 2034
thewonderelephants 1795

Tongue of Fury 1724
onegameatatimers 1603

Scros Swimmers 2152
hairy Hobbits 1903

Crawf's SuperSquad 1955
DA HEAT 1915

Ladder

1 Duromine Dependent 13 1 30440 27529 110.57 52
2 The Willies 11 3 29549 28076 105.25 44
3 FNQ Trotters 10 4 29091 27544 105.62 40
4 Daisy's Duds 10 4 29208 28050 104.13 40
5 Adelaide Crows 9 5 30715 28666 107.15 36
6 Wigg Brothers 9 5 29455 28249 104.27 36
7 hairy Hobbits 9 5 28557 27400 104.22 36
8 ZedForce 9 5 29764 28839 103.21 36

9 DA HEAT 9 5 28836 28086 102.67 36
10 Scros Swimmers 8 6 29544 28041 105.36 32
11 Crawf's SuperSquad 7 7 28198 28862 97.70 28
12 Crack Foxes 6 8 26488 27840 95.14 24
13 Tongue of Fury 5 9 26610 28129 94.60 20
14 Holland's Hero's 4 10 27751 28847 96.20 16
15 thewonderelephants 3 11 26382 28468 92.67 12
16 Onegameatatimers 2 12 26445 28562 92.59 8
17 Nutkickers 2 12 26448 29448 89.81 8
18 FoxInSox 0 14 26185 29030 90.20 0

The young fellow Leo fell asleep at the Switch this week and didn't look at his team and as a result DA HEAT suffered a shock loss to Crawf who had been on a six game losing streak. Zed, far from being dead baby stole a march into the top eight and DA HEAT might find it hard to get back in. When Daisy did his preview I always thought DA HEAT was the side that looked more vulnerable as opposed to the wily senior citizen who is the coach of FNQ Trotters.

The most dangerous team outside the top eight is Scros Swimmers who continue to win matches although a top eight position appears is like a mirage, never seeming to get any closer. Grasshopper is running out of weeks to make it happen but all he can do is keep winning. The team that looks most vulnerable in the top eight, as Daisy pointed out is hairy Hobbitts who were well beaten by the Scros this week.

The Wigg Brothers and especially The Willies copped rare losses this week as Duromine Dependent and the Adelaide Crows proved themselves to be the better sides. Daisys Duds will be hoping that the FNQ Trotters can keep up their winning form and keep the Crows out of the top four as they have scored very well all season, despite dropping some matches in curious fashion.

In the relegation battle it's fare thee well to FoxInSox who will be relegated to Division V next season. Here's hoping that they can win one game at this level as they have been most competitive for many weeks now without managing to get over the line. They don't deserve a burger ring in the W column for the season. Crack Foxes and Tongue of Fury moved one step further away from the danger zone with victories on the weekend although both can mathematically be relegated. Crack Foxes look pretty safe to me though. I reckon the percentage tells a tale and while it's not curtains for onegameatatimers, wonderelephants and Nutkickers just yet they'd have to get a wriggle on to avoid the same fate as Foxy.

regards,

REB

[grasshopper22]

Come on someone in the 8 start losing please, 9 trades remaining I'm going to have to be smart, but at that same time there's no point missing out on the 8 with trades in the bank.

[daysofourlives]

Come on someone in the 8 start losing please, 9 trades remaining I'm going to have to be smart, but at that same time there's no point missing out on the 8 with trades in the bank.

Dont worry mate you're a dead set certainty to make the 8 as my projections forecast
Only been one game wrong each week, as long as its not you your safe

[grasshopper22]

What to do with GAJ though could hurt.

[daysofourlives]

What to do with GAJ though could hurt.

Rockliff got a game's suspension too

[grasshopper22]

I don't have him, nearly bought him in last wk but went Stevie J instead as he had bottomed out and allowed me to keep some coin in the bank and I was able to trade Claye Beams out for it to happen and not Bontompelli

[RKJ]

If Gazza is out 4-6 then I think I'll trade to Sloane or Barlow and with the cash do Hallahan to Harvey and put him in the forward line.

If it's less than 4 I will hold him.

[grasshopper22]

If Gazza is out 4-6 then I think I'll trade to Sloane or Barlow and with the cash do Hallahan to Harvey and put him in the forward line.

If it's less than 4 I will hold him.

GAJ to Parker
And
Tex to Gray??

[RKJ]

Solid trades.

I'm going GAJ to Sloane or Barlow and Hallahan to Harvey

[daysofourlives]

Updated after R17
(1) Duromine Dependent
Vs 15 W + 229
4 W + 44
8 L - 50 W+102
2 W + 35
12 W + 213

(2) The Willies
4 W + 29
8 L -77
12 W + 204
1 L -35
5 W + 80

(3) Hairy Hobbits
5 W +99 L -55
10 L -85
6 L - 67 W+26
16 W + 116
7 L - 21

(4) The Wigg Brothers
2 L -29
1 L - 44
5 W + 190
10 L -76
6 L -8

(5) FNQ Trotters
3 L - 99 W+55
15 W + 44
4 L - 190
8 L - 189
2 L - 80

(6) Da Heat
13 W + 144
11 W + 215 L -40
3 W + 67 L-26
15 W + 112
4 W + 8

(7) Daisys Duds
18 W + 340
14 W + 164
13 W + 329
11 W + 238
3 W + 21

(8) Adelaide Crows
12 W + 332
2 W + 77
1 W + 50 L-102
5 W + 189
10 W + 82

(9) Zed Force
17 W + 193
18 W + 399
14 W + 486
13 W + 294
11 W + 347

(10) Scros Swimmers
11 W + 286
3 W + 85
15 W + 596
4 W + 76
8 L - 82

Updated Ladder at the end would look something like this with points differential as a guide for %
Duromine Dependent 64 + 3261
Daisys Duds 52 + 1746
The Willies 52 + 1722
Zed Force 48 + 2052
Adelaide Crows 44 + 2218
Hairy Hobbits 44 + 1278
Da Heat 44 + 844
Scros Swimmers 40 + 2093

FNQ Trotters 40 + 1088
Wigg Brothers 40 + 1312


Two games went against the projections in the first Ablettless round, R17 with Da Heat losing to The Hobbits and the Adelaide Crows going down to league leader's. Both results may have huge ramifications on the finals. The Crows now look likely to miss the double chance with Zed Force liekly to be the beneficiary. The Hairy Hobbits upset win should see him book a finals birth.
Daisy's Duds have moved up one spot to 2nd in a very tight contest with The Willies for home ground advantage in the 1st week of finals. Zed Force is waiting to swoop should one of these teams drop a game unexpectedly and avoid a first week match up with the all conquering League leaders Duromine Dependant.

The projected end of season ladder has been adjusted accordingly.
I also adjusted the points differential to reflect the actual results from R17.

Looking to this week its Duro (1) taking on The Willies (2). Duro should win but this wont effect The Willies keeping 2nd or 3rd spot.
Its crunch time for FNQ Trotters, Scros Swimmers and Wigg Brothers. The Brothers and Swimmers face off with the winner likely to make the 8 and the loser faces an enormous challenge to make the 8. The Trotters face a massive task in trying to haul in the Crows to keep their season alive.
Da Heat faces one of the also rans but simply can not afford to drop this one with the worst percentage of all the teams in the 8.

[Rik E Boy]

Round 15 Results

The Willies 2204
Crack Foxes 2000

FoxInSox 2059
Nutkickers 2057

Duromine Dependent 2484
Adelaide Crows 2382

ZedForce 2354
Holland's Hero's 1868

Wigg Brothers 2449
FNQ Trotters 2259

Daisy's Duds 2096
Tongue of Fury 1767

Scros Swimmers 2334
thewonderelephants 1738

Crawf's SuperSquad 2247
onegameatatimers 2028

hairy Hobbits 2160
DA HEAT 2134

Ladder

1 Duromine Dependent 14 1 32924 29911 110.07 56
2 The Willies 12 3 31753 30076 105.58 48
3 Daisy's Duds 11 4 31304 29817 104.99 44
4 ZedForce 10 5 32118 30707 104.60 40
5 Wigg Brothers 10 5 31904 30508 104.58 40
6 FNQ Trotters 10 5 31350 29993 104.52 40
7 hairy Hobbits 10 5 30717 29534 104.01 40
8 Scros Swimmers 9 6 31878 29779 107.05 36

9 Adelaide Crows 9 6 33097 31150 106.25 36
10 DA HEAT 9 6 30970 30246 102.39 36
11 Crawf's SuperSquad 8 7 30445 30890 98.56 32
12 Crack Foxes 6 9 28488 30044 94.82 24
13 Tongue of Fury 5 10 28377 30225 93.89 20
14 Holland's Hero's 4 11 29619 31201 94.93 16
15 thewonderelephants 3 12 28120 30802 91.29 12
16 Onegameatatimers 2 13 28473 30809 92.42 8
17 Nutkickers 2 13 28505 31507 90.47 8
18 FoxInSox 1 14 28244 31087 90.85 4

Not much more to add to what Daisy said above except congratulations to FoxInSox for breaking their duck and also to Scros Swimmers for finally making it into the eight.

regards,

REB