AFL 2014

[bennymacca]

sorry! sydney were well up when i wrote that! haha

[Dutchy]

Adeliade Under 85.5pts
1.5 Units @ $1.90

[Dutchy]

Week 20
AFL 2-2 +0.35 units
SANFL 1-0 +1.0 units

YTD AFL 70-58 +21.05 units
SANFL 15-18 -3.03 units
TOTAL +18.02 units

[Dutchy]

Carlton/Freo Under 171.5
2 Units @ $1.90

[helicopterking]

Freo 60-69

[Dutchy]

LIVE BET

Freo/Blues Under 189.5
2 Units @ $1.86

[mighty_tiger_79]

almost hit the draw last night Booney, getting close

[Dutchy]

Nice +4 Unit night

Sydney 1-39
1 Unit @ $2.20

[Dutchy]

Todays AFL

Adelaide -33.5
2 Units @ $1.92

GCS/Saints Under 177.5
1 Unit @ $1.90

Nth Melb +7.5
1 Unit @ $2

[Dutchy]

SANFL

South Adelaide +11.5
1 Unit @ $1.90

Glenelg +29.5
1 Unit @ $1.90

[Dutchy]

AFL

Brisbane +4.5
2 Units @ $2

Collingwood +6.5
1 Unit @ $1.92

SANFL

Norwood/Sturt Win
1 Unit @ $2.27

[Dutchy]

Week 21
AFL 5-3 +3.90 units
SANFL 2-1 +1.00 units

YTD
AFL 75-61 +24.95 units
SANFL 17-19 -2.03 units
TOTAL +22.92 units

[Booney]

almost hit the draw last night Booney, getting close

Had money on it too.

Getting closer......just need to pick the right game.

[Ecky]

OK, I'll finally bite...
Please explain why you believe that a lack of draws this year implies that a draw in the remainder of the year is more likely.

[dedja]

woop, woop ... stats nerd alert

[bennymacca]

OK, I'll finally bite...
Please explain why you believe that a lack of draws this year implies that a draw in the remainder of the year is more likely.

I've already tried that

[Johno6]

Tab are offering $3 for there to be a draw for any game the rest of the year if ya interested in that.

[Booney]

OK, I'll finally bite...
Please explain why you believe that a lack of draws this year implies that a draw in the remainder of the year is more likely.

Not sure why it's a bite, I'm not fishing.

2004 was the last year that there was no draw. ( Edit - Prior to that 2001 then 1990 for drawless seasons ) That season compromised only 16 teams ( 8 games a week ) 185 matches. This year with 18 teams, 198 matches. So, more games, more chances for a draw. No draws yet this season.10 years since a "drawless" season, the closeness of the teams 5th-15th....

Granted, I don't analyse markets as you do, but as we draw closer to the end of the season and teams around each other battle for spots in the top 4 and the top 8 I would think games will be closer, more likely hood of a draw.

With draws listed at $51 ( typically ) I'm happy to have some $5-10 bets here and there on the games I think will be very close. Having said that, I look at the line betting in each game and those with lines 8-10pts or under I look closely at.

This is ok with you?

[bennymacca]

Each game is an independent event though, so the likelihood doesn't change as the time without draws goes on longer.

You are correct that some games could be closer as teams fight for finals but also there could be blowouts as teams put the cue in the rack

[Booney]

Each game is an independent event though, so the likelihood doesn't change as the time without draws goes on longer.

You are correct that some games could be closer as teams fight for finals but also there could be blowouts as teams put the cue in the rack

Correct. I didn't bet on Adelaide v West Coast as I expected a blow out ( the other way ) I did on Port v Collingwood, ultimately a 6 point difference.