Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

[gadj1976]

Geelong Cup today - #7 Lucques

Terrible field for such an important race

Its only important if there is a good field. Its certainly dropped away these past couple.

[LPH]

Stop Press... Moreira not riding in Cox Plate

https://www.punters.com.au/news/Cox-Pla ... ao_154573/

[mighty_tiger_79]

No real loss, the 'Magic Man' don't show much magic here

[LPH]

22/ 10/ 16

W.S. Cox Plate Day this week & the ‘match race’ everybody has been waiting for. If Winx can win it again, she will be considered in the same breath as the great Mares Sunline & Makybe Diva. Goldophin are starting to dominate racing across the country, as they have in Europe for years – can they knock her off her ‘perch’? What about the forgotten runner Black Heart Bart? There’s been talk regarding Vadamos & then there’s the ‘old timer’ Happy Trails, running in his 5th Cox Plate!
All of this & we won’t know how the track holds up after 16 races & the expected rain.

Not sure about you guys but I always seem to struggle on the punt when they race at Mooney Valley. Got some money in the kick after a really enjoyable day at Caulfield last Saturday, but back without the aid of the Bookies this week, having to rely on the 3 x Corporates. BTW, I always go to Morphettville for Derby Day each year, so if anyone else is going – catch up for a drink?

So to the Races; I am writing this before the Night Meeting, because I have to work late tonight & I also haven’t watched ‘Get On’ yet because I was late home last night as well.

Mooney Valley Race 9 – WS Cox Plate

Who leads? Hartnell & Black Heart Bart, probably - with the Filly tucking in behind them. She’s got a huge advantage in the weights with 47.5 kgs but I just feel she doesn’t have the ‘Class’ of some of these. With the predicted rain I give Lucia Valentina a chance – certainly worth a PLACE ticket. She’ll be giving the leaders a start & not sure she can ‘real them in’. Winx - it goes without saying, she’s the one to beat.

I’m backing the other Godolphin runner, the Epsom winner Hauraki at the price – 1 x 4 units. I know Winx beat him easily in the George Main but he ran 2nd in the Doomben Cup during the Winter with similar weight & a wet track will suit him. The big plus is he’s got Dunn in the seat in the race & he’s currently the best Victorian Rider IMHO. Not only that, but he did me well on the Godolphin runner Peacock last week at $20, so I want to stick with him at a similar price.

Backing Hauraki 1 x 4 & Lucia Valentina the Place for 5 Units

Trifecta: 2, 3, 4, / 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 9, 10 / Field (35%) = $50.40


Mooney Valley Race 7 – The Crystal Mile

The market suggests it’s a very wide open race & MHO any of these could be made a case for winning. The United States may well be being set for either of the Group 1’s on Emirates Stakes Day (The Emirates over 1600m or the Mckinnon over 2000m) at Flemington – so is he 1 run short here? Perhaps, but he’s too short for mine anyway to want to back him in this race.

No Bet for me in this race – just no value IMHO. Only punting via the Quaddie.

Mooney Valley Race 8 – Mooney Valley Cup

A number of these are nominated for the Melbourne Cup & based on the order of entry;
1, 2, 3, 4 have already qualified for The Cup – so they don’t need to win but you would think their Trainers would want them to run well.
Authoritarian (No. 5) is not nominated for the Cup.
Pentathlon is on the ‘cusp’ of entry (27th but 2 ahead of him, Scottish & Howard Be Thy Name are unlikely starters), so he will need to win to go ahead of Secret Number & get in – so he needs to be watched. 6, 9, & 10 all need to win this race or ‘back up’ next week in the Lexus/Saab 2500m race to get in the field.

Master Zephyr has great stats @ the Track & Distance. He needs this to get into the Cup Field but I have a ‘gut feeling’ he’s been set specifically for THIS race – so at the Boosted Odds on Ladbrokes of $15, he’ll do me 1 x 3 Units.

Box Trifecta: 1, 3, 4, 6, 8, 9

Mooney Valley Race 10 – The Vase

Clearly, the Sydney 3 yr olds are better (once again) this year, aren’t they?
Prized Icon could nearly be running in the ‘Big One’ over the same distance, so he’s the ‘Class’ in the race & his wet form is OK. If I can get EVENS the PLACE – he’s a good bet IMHO as I think he runs in the first 3. Conceding chances to the Fillies 10 & 11 - 10 ran a cracking race for 3rd last start. That said, I’ve backed No. 6 So Si Bon – finished hard in the Guineas 2 weeks ago, he should ‘eat’ the extra 2 furlongs this Saturday & he’s run 2nd as a 2yr old in Soft Going. Took the $8 Powered on Sportsbet – 2 x 5 Units

Box Trifecta: 1, 2, 3, 6, 10, 11

Of the other races on the card:

Race 3 – the Fillies Sprint Race:
Zamzam is way over the PLACE Odds at $13.60 on Ladbrokes. I know she hasn’t been racing to well but that price seems somewhat ridiculous considering she’s won 2 of 4 here – happy to have a small PLACE bet on her. I will also back No. 8 Getna 1 x 4 as I think she’s ready to win & the $18 Boosted & $5 Place are too nice.

Quaddie Numbers: 1, 2, 5, 7 / 1, 3, 4, 6 / 3, 4, 8 / 1, 2, 3, 6, 10, 11

Enjoy the Day Lads.
The Cox Plate should be a ‘ripper’ – looking forward to watching the race.
Lets hope we can find some winners.
If you want to meet up at Morphettville for a drink next Saturday, let me know.

[mighty_tiger_79]

I'm working multis around
Capitalist
Winx
Liza
Whispering Brook

Randwick
Broadside

If all those hit at 600/1 I'll be fairly happy

[Alaska]

I will join in although no previous form for you to follow.
However, as I need to get in before the race in order to brag afterwards:

Moonee Valley
Race 4 No 4 Highland Beat
Race 6 No 5 Exocet
Race 7 No 5 Royal Rapture to win
Race 9 I think Hartnell to win but a trifecta on 3,6,8 and 10
Race 10 No1 Prized Icon to win

[JK]

Revel Dane fugg me I can never catch that bloody thing!! Lol

[helicopterking]

Revel Dane fugg me I can never catch that bloody thing!! Lol

Best ride won the race.

[Brodlach]

What happened to Capitalist ( I know it was scratched)

[OnSong]

What happened to Capitalist ( I know it was scratched)

Scratched

[gadj1976]

Revel Dane fugg me I can never catch that bloody thing!! Lol

I know! I religiously back it but I couldn't see it running better than 5th in this field. FRIGGENNNNN!

Anyway, I layed Chataqua and I'll lay Winx tomorrow too. Hartnell for mine.

My early tips for Melbourne are;

MR 1 8
MR 4 1
Lay MR 5 1
MR 6 2
MR 7 1
MR 9 3

[LPH]

Fell Swoop just missed apparently - haven't seen the race, just got home.
Happy with the Place Bet on Tuesday but the $18 would've been nicer!

[gadj1976]

Fell Swoop just missed apparently - haven't seen the race, just got home.
Happy with the Place Bet on Tuesday but the $18 would've been nicer!

It's destined never to win a G1!

Seriously FS should've won. Rebel Dane got a rails run and took off, almost nabbed by FS. I think the official margin was a neck.

[helicopterking]

Buffering Retired.
In my time, One of racings greats.
54 Starts,
20 Wins
7 Group 1s.
Over $7mil Prize Money
Champion.

[Computer Crashed]

Buffering Retired.
In my time, One of racings greats.
54 Starts,
20 Wins
7 Group 1s.
Over $7mil Prize Money
Champion.

And only cost $22,000.

[gadj1976]

Revel Dane fugg me I can never catch that bloody thing!! Lol

I know! I religiously back it but I couldn't see it running better than 5th in this field. FRIGGENNNNN!

Anyway, I layed Chataqua and I'll lay Winx tomorrow too. Hartnell for mine.

My early tips for Melbourne are;

MR 1 8
MR 4 1
Lay MR 5 1
MR 6 2
MR 7 1
MR 9 3

couple of others

Mr 5 6 ew
Mr 6 1
Sr 5 5
Mr 9 F4, 3 6 7 8 boxed

[JK]

I'll lay Winx tomorrow too. Hartnell for mine.

Yep, agree with both of those

[mighty_tiger_79]

Lucia Valentina as a knockout hope
Want more rain, don't want these blue skies over the Valley

[mighty_tiger_79]

Wow

[Spargo]

Oh man, that was so good to watch.