Graham Campbell's 2021 Punting Forum

[JK]

Do you believe that is fair dinkum JK?

I would suggest if it is then that Sportsbet account is now dead.

edit - just did some maths myself, that about a 50/1 shot, I can't believe that is 2000/1.

Yeah I do bud (that's not to say it is though) - Certainly my Nephew knows these people well and believes it to be true.

I just did some quick estimate kinda calcs which could be way off ... Approximates only

- Adelaide H2H $1.80 (this legs wouldn't count anyway given the final leg)
- McAdam AGS $3.00
- Rowe AGS $5
- Adelaide 1QT lead $1.80
- Adelaide HT lead $1.80
- North 3QT lead $3
- Adelaide 40+ $4

That gets to about $583 (+without factoring in any algorithm that value adds or detracts) ... Actually scrap that, this is probably an easier way ...

[JK]

Based off that last post of mine, then yep absolutely legit I'd say

[mighty_tiger_79]

Well......hurry back with his SGM tips for tonight[emoji3][emoji3]

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[Dutchy]

I hope it is real, thats a great win, but its probably also a genuine 500/1 shot for a team to be losing at 3/4 time and then win 40+.

Your AGS prices are miles too high though for guys that sit I50 and a regular goal kickers.

[Brodlach]

McAdam I think was $1.21
Rowe $1.67

[Bum Crack]

Do you believe that is fair dinkum JK?

I would suggest if it is then that Sportsbet account is now dead.

edit - just did some maths myself, that about a 50/1 shot, I can't believe that is 2000/1.

Yeah I do bud (that's not to say it is though) - Certainly my Nephew knows these people well and believes it to be true.

I just did some quick estimate kinda calcs which could be way off ... Approximates only

- Adelaide H2H $1.80 (this legs wouldn't count anyway given the final leg)
- McAdam AGS $3.00
- Rowe AGS $5
- Adelaide 1QT lead $1.80
- Adelaide HT lead $1.80
- North 3QT lead $3
- Adelaide 40+ $4

That gets to about $583 (+without factoring in any algorithm that value adds or detracts) ... Actually scrap that, this is probably an easier way ...

I wish the AGS odds were that juicy. Nowhere near that. Be $1.20 - $1.50 approx

[JK]

Do you believe that is fair dinkum JK?

I would suggest if it is then that Sportsbet account is now dead.

edit - just did some maths myself, that about a 50/1 shot, I can't believe that is 2000/1.

Yeah I do bud (that's not to say it is though) - Certainly my Nephew knows these people well and believes it to be true.

I just did some quick estimate kinda calcs which could be way off ... Approximates only

- Adelaide H2H $1.80 (this legs wouldn't count anyway given the final leg)
- McAdam AGS $3.00
- Rowe AGS $5
- Adelaide 1QT lead $1.80
- Adelaide HT lead $1.80
- North 3QT lead $3
- Adelaide 40+ $4

That gets to about $583 (+without factoring in any algorithm that value adds or detracts) ... Actually scrap that, this is probably an easier way ...

I wish the AGS odds were that juicy. Nowhere near that. Be $1.20 - $1.50 approx

For sure, I was just fudging around with figures to try and get it close .. The algorithm must play the biggest part judging by the example of tonight’s game I used. Rowe given his limited impact would be closer to the to the $2 mark but even at those AGS prices you’ve used in conjunction with the Rich v Saints example lends me to believe that bet would be legit.

[Dutchy]

I just mucked around with WCE/Collingwood game tomorrow night as its similar odds to the Crows/Roos game last week and did this -

AGS - Liam Ryan & Jack Petruccelle $1.20 & $1.25 respectively
West Coast 40+ $3.10
Collingwood 3/4 time leader $3.20

now thats works out in traditional multi to be around $15, but odds given on SB are $2,476, it must factor in that the odds of a team leading at 3/4 time and then getting beaten by 40+ as pretty rare.

Interesting though it wouldn't let me add in WCE as quarter time and half time leader

[Lightning McQueen]

I just mucked around with WCE/Collingwood game tomorrow night as its similar odds to the Crows/Roos game last week and did this -

AGS - Liam Ryan & Jack Petruccelle $1.20 & $1.25 respectively
West Coast 40+ $3.10
Collingwood 3/4 time leader $3.20

now thats works out in traditional multi to be around $15, but odds given on SB are $2,476, it must factor in that the odds of a team leading at 3/4 time and then getting beaten by 40+ as pretty rare.

Interesting though it wouldn't let me add in WCE as quarter time and half time leader

Mc Adam and Rowe were higher, Brodlach was close to the mark for memory.

[Trader]

AGS - Liam Ryan & Jack Petruccelle $1.20 & $1.25 respectively
West Coast 40+ $3.10
Collingwood 3/4 time leader $3.20

now thats works out in traditional multi to be around $15, but odds given on SB are $2,476, it must factor in that the odds of a team leading at 3/4 time and then getting beaten by 40+ as pretty rare.

Correct.
They are dependent results.

The same way putting a multi on for a team to win h2h, over 15.5 and 40+ are all dependent and you'll simply get the 40+ odds despite having the three legs in there.

It's quite funny to watch guys put in dependent legs like this as if the rest of the multi gets up (eg player possessions and goal scorers), but say the team loses, they get nothing, but if they went with just the 40+ margin, they'd be getting money back as only 1 leg lost, and they would have received the same payout overall.

I've never played around with it enough to check if the algorithm does, but it should also take into account other partial dependencies like:
If you have a heap of AGSs but then pick the total points to go under, you should get higher odds, as the more goals kicked means the under is less likely.
Similarly, if you pick total match points to go under and the winning margin to be 1-39, then your odds should be smaller than the straight multi price.
Etc.

Roos to lead at 3/4 time and crows to win 40+ basically means crows need to not only kick 7+ goals in the last quarter (unlikely in itself), but they also need to do it in a game they losing at 3/4 time.

[Wedgie]

Port $1.90 on Sportsbet, surely that's money for jam?

[Dutchy]

Port $1.90 on Sportsbet, surely that's money for jam?

Have drifted all week out from $1.62, been a weird market, Im staying out

[mighty_tiger_79]

Hoping for Boak and Gray to get atleast 14 touches in the last qtr for a SGM on pointsbet.
They had to combine 45+ touches and port win

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[mighty_tiger_79]

Gray is gonna kill me, dropping absolute sitters

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[mighty_tiger_79]

Hoping for Boak and Gray to get atleast 14 touches in the last qtr for a SGM on pointsbet.
They had to combine 45+ touches and port win

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Finished on 45 on the dot.

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[Bum Crack]

I had a 14 leg multi last night paying 69/1. Missed one leg . Needed Saad to get 20 possessions and he got 19. Did not get a possession in last 5 minutes. Story of my ******* life.

[mighty_tiger_79]

For the thrill seekers

Anytime goalscorer

Hawkins $1.02

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[Armchair expert]

For the thrill seekers

Anytime goalscorer

Hawkins $1.02

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That seems a little risky, might go e/w

[Booney]

Port $1.90 on Sportsbet, surely that's money for jam?

Have drifted all week out from $1.62, been a weird market, Im staying out

Messaged JK yesterday asking him I was missing something when Carlton were $1.94 to Ports $1.90.

They've beaten Fremantle in Melbourne and Gold Coast with no ruckman by 11 points.

Why does the media get sucked in "Carlton coming" every year? They aren't.

[JK]

Port $1.90 on Sportsbet, surely that's money for jam?

Have drifted all week out from $1.62, been a weird market, Im staying out

Messaged JK yesterday asking him I was missing something when Carlton were $1.94 to Ports $1.90.

They've beaten Fremantle in Melbourne and Gold Coast with no ruckman by 11 points.

Why does the media get sucked in "Carlton coming" every year? They aren't.

I think it had the feeling of one of those potential “banana skin” games amid concern of how banged up Port might have been after that epic Richmond game. You’re right Carlton are much further off it than most seem to realise.