Federal Election Predictions

[Squawk]

http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/1295782/Asylum-seekers:-Myths-and-facts

[Q.]

Agreed, everyone is trying to find a solution to a virtually non-existent problem.

Doesn't have the same oomph to crack down on visa over-stayers.

"The problem" at the moment is a few thousand people per annum. If any of the current prevention mechanisms were withdrawn, it would balloon out further. No doubt. In fact, it could actually become a genuine 'problem' where tens of thousands descended towards Australia by boat.

It will eventually reach that point regardless of the hardline immigration policies and offshore jails.

[mick]

I'm sticking with my original prediction of a Liberal victory with less than 50% of the popular vote, but the ALP getting slaughtered in QLD, NSW and WA marginals, nothing much to change in the remaining states and territories, there was a bookie on 5AA this morning saying a lot of money now coming back to the Liberals. However the bookies are still predicting an ALP victory and apparently have 100% success up to this point.

[fisho mcspaz]

I might have to change my vote to Labor - was going to give them second preference after Greens. I can't say I'm happy with Labor at the present time, but I can't bear the thought of Tony Abbott as PM.

[am Bays]

Don't bother Fisho, you live in Southern Adelaide? Kingston aint going to change regardless of who you vote for, Green or Labor.

Now if you lived in SE Qld or the mortgage outer belt of Sydney your vote may count....

No small coincidence in why both leaders have been conspicuous by their absence here in SA.

Pyne is Safe, only Lib introuble is Soutcott but he will probably hold on.

Still unlikely that Abbott will win much to Mick's and my chargrin. But if he does I'm moving to NSW and joining the NSW ALP right - I want to be a fly on the wall to watch the blood letting. Mark Arbib you better hope and pray Gillard gets up....

[fisho mcspaz]

True - Kingston is safe Labor.

This is a long shot but I don't suppose there's any chance of the Greens taking Mayo?

[am Bays]

True - Kingston is safe Labor.

This is a long shot but I don't suppose there's any chance of the Greens taking Mayo?

About as much chance as I have of pushing a pound of butter up a parrots ar5e with a hot needle....

If labor hadn't stood in the seat maybe but the left wing vote will be spilt between them (labor and greens). So no chance.

[CK]

True - Kingston is safe Labor.

This is a long shot but I don't suppose there's any chance of the Greens taking Mayo?

Absolutely none whatsoever, without quoting Am Bays's very good analogy . I lived in this seat for many years and while the demographic is more Green oriented than it was, this is simply too safe to change.

Amanda Rishworth to be returned in Kingston with an increased majority, after running a much stronger campaign than Liberal, Chris Zanker. This is my local seat and we simply didn't see Zanker during the campaign. It was almost like the Liberals saw the writing on the wall early here and reduced campaigning here. Having said that, Ms Rishworth's plethora of posters in the area is simply staggering - the most I can ever recall in any seat in my memory.

The one SA seat I believe will change hands is Boothby. Andrew Southcott had a stronger drop in primary vote last time against a candidate that had an error-riddled campaign, than was reflected in the national swing. Annabel Digance looks to have run a solid campaign here and I'm tipping this will fall midway through the evening to the ALP.

The Greens to make history with their first Lower House seat, by narrowly winning the seat of Melbourne.

Maxine McKew to just hang on in Bennelong, but only just, against tennis great, John Alexander.

[Media Park]

Maxine McKew did her job last time around... she can't be asked to do more...

[Gozu]

Prediction: Labor to win 80 seats (thus a reduced majority) and to take Boothby.

I always vote Greens in the Senate and this time will be voting Greens in the HoR then going through all the independents/Democrats etc, Liberal Party 3rd to last, Labor 2nd to last and Family First at the bottom.

I just don’t think voting 1) Greens and then 2) Labor will get the message across. Like Hawker, Richo etc have said during this campaign they know the vast majority of Greens votes will be coming back to them regardless which allows the ALP to continue it’s march to the Right.

This Rudd/Gillard Labor government have been disappointing in my opinion and with things like these I can’t support them:

-the mandatory internet filter

-bringing in welfare quarantining nation wide for people on unemployment & single parenting benefits

-the capitulation on climate change culminating in the farce that is/will be the citizens assembly

-the East Timor ‘solution’

-the blatant tax grab with the 25% price hike on packs of cigarettes which for the most part hurts low income earners

[Leaping Lindner]

Prediction: Labor to win 80 seats (thus a reduced majority) and to take Boothby.

I always vote Greens in the Senate and this time will be voting Greens in the HoR then going through all the independents/Democrats etc, Liberal Party 3rd to last, Labor 2nd to last and Family First at the bottom.

I just don’t think voting 1) Greens and then 2) Labor will get the message across. Like Hawker, Richo etc have said during this campaign they know the vast majority of Greens votes will be coming back to them regardless which allows the ALP to continue it’s march to the Right.

This Rudd/Gillard Labor government have been disappointing in my opinion and with things like these I can’t support them:

-the mandatory internet filter

-bringing in welfare quarantining nation wide for people on unemployment & single parenting benefits

-the capitulation on climate change culminating in the farce that is/will be the citizens assembly

-the East Timor ‘solution’

-the blatant tax grab with the 25% price hike on packs of cigarettes which for the most part hurts low income earners

X2 ....except Labor third last Libs second last and I am saving the very last spot on the Senate ticket for Stephen Conroy

Add to that list the refusal to recognise Gay Marriage despite it no longer being on religious grounds apparently

[Dogwatcher]

Gillard to be PM, by a nose.

[redandblack]

So, basically because the ALP have moved to the right, you'll preference a party far further to the right, Gozu?

Can't quite see the logic.

[am Bays]

Prediction #1 - Don't bother staying up tomorrow night expecting to know who has won, with 800 000 postal votes to count (6%) won't know the PM until Tuesday/Wednesday next week.

Prediction #2 - Labor 78, Coalition 68, 3 Independants and 1 Green.

Prediction #3 - No SA seats to change hands.

[mick]

Gozu, you really think that the ALP will come out of this with a net loss of only three seats? I am always a realist and I think a first term government losing is unlikely though entirely possible particularly if things go badly for them in NSW and QLD. Apparently the Murdoch Press in both NSW and QLD have overtly urged voters to vote for the Coalition. If the ALP loses, they will begin the process of tearing themselves apart, which will mean another poor government without a credible opposition for some time.

[redandblack]

mick, I've been following politics for long enough to know that if we don't know who's going to win tomorrow, we certainly can't call what's going to happen over the next several years.

[Q.]

Hung parliament!

[mick]

mick, I've been following politics for long enough to know that if we don't know who's going to win tomorrow, we certainly can't call what's going to happen over the next several years.

You are right of course we don't know who'll win, but I remember quite a few people were calling Abbott and the Liberal Party unelectable less than a year ago, they may may not get elected but consensus suggests it will be a close run thing. Who would have thunk it? You really believe there will be no blood letting in the ALP if they lose office? That is a certainty.

[mighty_tiger_79]

Gillard to be PM, by a nose.

how about by a lobe

[Q.]

mick, I've been following politics for long enough to know that if we don't know who's going to win tomorrow, we certainly can't call what's going to happen over the next several years.

You are right of course we don't know who'll win, but I remember quite a few people were calling Abbott and the Liberal Party unelectable less than a year ago, they may may not get elected but consensus suggests it will be a close run thing. Who would have thunk it? You really believe there will be no blood letting in the ALP if they lose office? That is a certainty.

What about the other side of the coin? Do you think Abbott will get the flick if the Coalition aren't elected or has he done enough to secure his position?