Federal Election Predictions

[Gozu]

X2 ....except Labor third last Libs second last and I am saving the very last spot on the Senate ticket for Stephen Conroy

Add to that list the refusal to recognise Gay Marriage despite it no longer being on religious grounds apparently

Yes fully agree with gay marriage too, I forgot about that.

[mick]

mick, I've been following politics for long enough to know that if we don't know who's going to win tomorrow, we certainly can't call what's going to happen over the next several years.

You are right of course we don't know who'll win, but I remember quite a few people were calling Abbott and the Liberal Party unelectable less than a year ago, they may may not get elected but consensus suggests it will be a close run thing. Who would have thunk it? You really believe there will be no blood letting in the ALP if they lose office? That is a certainty.

What about the other side of the coin? Do you think Abbott will get the flick if the Coalition aren't elected or has he done enough to secure his position?

He'll be gone, the Liberal party does not tolerate defeated leaders no matter how gallant the defeat. Electoral defeat will embolden the Abbott haters and the Libs will be in turmoil for sometime. Having said that some recycled leaders went on to be be quite successful, Menzies and Howard and I suppose Kennett in the state arena.

[Gozu]

So, basically because the ALP have moved to the right, you'll preference a party far further to the right, Gozu?

Can't quite see the logic.

I'm of the opinion the ALP won't learn anything by me voting for the Greens and then preferencing Labor ahead of the Libs.

The ALP are quite clearly contemptuous of the Left.

[mick]

So, basically because the ALP have moved to the right, you'll preference a party far further to the right, Gozu?

Can't quite see the logic.

I'm of the opinion the ALP won't learn anything by me voting for the Greens and then preferencing Labor ahead of the Libs.

The ALP are quite clearly contemptuous of the Left.

They are realists, they want to get elected.

Anyway I'm off to the boat for the weekend and because of fine Australian wine I'll have good time tomorrow no matter who wins. Although it will be interesting to see whose prediction from this thread is the most accurate.

[Gozu]

Gozu, you really think that the ALP will come out of this with a net loss of only three seats? I am always a realist and I think a first term government losing is unlikely though entirely possible particularly if things go badly for them in NSW and QLD. Apparently the Murdoch Press in both NSW and QLD have overtly urged voters to vote for the Coalition. If the ALP loses, they will begin the process of tearing themselves apart, which will mean another poor government without a credible opposition for some time.

Yes, I think there will be gains in Victoria and potentially in SA and WA too. As I understand it the swings against them in QLD are all over the place. Not interseted in what the Murdoch press think, they ran hard against Labor in the lead up to the last election and the ALP still won. The reality is they don't have as much power and influence as they think they do.

If the ALP do lose they rightly should tear themselves apart. They can start by getting rid of some of the bad eggs in the Right like Arbib, Bitar, Feeney, Shorten, Farrell etc. Of course if they do scrape over the line those clowns will tell anyone that's willing to listen how great they all are.

[Dogwatcher]

mick, I've been following politics for long enough to know that if we don't know who's going to win tomorrow, we certainly can't call what's going to happen over the next several years.

You are right of course we don't know who'll win, but I remember quite a few people were calling Abbott and the Liberal Party unelectable less than a year ago, they may may not get elected but consensus suggests it will be a close run thing. Who would have thunk it? You really believe there will be no blood letting in the ALP if they lose office? That is a certainty.

What about the other side of the coin? Do you think Abbott will get the flick if the Coalition aren't elected or has he done enough to secure his position?

I reckon he'll have done enough.
The powerbrokers will hold on to him long enough before cutting him so that Joe Hockey can have a decent run at the next election.

[Gozu]

They are realists, they want to get elected.

Anyway I'm off to the boat for the weekend and because of fine Australian wine I'll have good time tomorrow no matter who wins. Although it will be interesting to see whose prediction from this thread is the most accurate.

Yeah so going by that logic they should come out and say they will up the anti on Abbott and shoot boat people on arrival, hey it would get them elected? If a government has anything about them they will bring the people with them like Howard did to a degree. Labor have done none of this in their time in government, why? Because they don't give a s__t. They only care about opinion polls and focus groups and stand for nothing other than remaining in power.

Have a good time on the boat Mick but watch out for that 'armada' on the horizon!

[am Bays]

Yes, I think there will be gains in Victoria and potentially in SA and WA too. As I understand it the swings against them in QLD are all over the place. Not interseted in what the Murdoch press think, they ran hard against Labor in the lead up to the last election and the ALP still won. The reality is they don't have as much power and influence as they think they do.

If the ALP do lose they rightly should tear themselves apart. They can start by getting rid of some of the bad eggs in the Right like Arbib, Bitar, Feeney, Shorten, Farrell etc. Of course if they do scrape over the line those clowns will tell anyone that's willing to listen how great they all are.

Gozu, forget WA ALP are on the nose over there thanks to the mining tax - fly in fly outs living in Perth. A good result for them will be to hold on to what they've got - Swan and Hasluck. If the ALP lose the Hasluck the HOR will get its first Indigenous representative through the Liberals.

My guess is a nett Loss of six seats in QLD, nett loss of three in NSW, lose a set in WA, no loss in VIC (will lose to the Greens but gain one from the Libs). No change in NT, SA, ACT and TAS.

[Gozu]

Gozu, forget WA ALP are on the nose over there thanks to the mining tax - fly in fly outs living in Perth. A good result for them will be to hold on to what they've got - Swan and Hasluck. If the ALP lose the Hasluck the HOR will get its first Indigenous representative through the Liberals.

My guess is a nett Loss of six seats in QLD, nett loss of three in NSW, lose a set in WA, no loss in VIC (will lose to the Greens but gain one from the Libs). No change in NT, SA, ACT and TAS.

I wouldn't have thought so myself but I've heard there might be the potential to pick up a seat in WA, I can't remember which one but it's supposedly why Gillard made a quick trip over there on Wednesday morning.

[The Apostle]

Same as the last state election...Labor to win but lose a few seats...

[Brucetiki]

Early results (Sky News)

Labor: 13
Liberal: 26
Others: 3

So far they've got 4 seats going to the Libs

[Brucetiki]

Looking stronger for Labor, but WA not counted yet (ABC)

Labor 63
Liberal 49
Others 3

In doubt 35

[am Bays]

Looking stronger for Labor, but WA not counted yet (ABC)

Labor 63
Liberal 49
Others 3

In doubt 35

And a lot of those in doubt will most likely go blue.

Steve Smith is now starting to sweat on WA where Swan and Hasluck are likely to go Blue...

Going to be a long couple of days...

[Brucetiki]

in SA, it's looking like a Liberal massacre

10% swing to Labor in Kingston
5% swing to Labor in Wakefield (pity neither counts for much in the long run)

So far the swing to Labor in Boothby is 1.81% (21% counted), needs about another 1.2% for Southcott to finally fall. Pyne looking safe in Sturt

[dedja]

Pyne looking safe in Sturt

[am Bays]

in SA, it's looking like a Liberal massacre

10% swing to Labor in Kingston
5% swing to Labor in Wakefield (pity neither counts for much in the long run)

So far the swing to Labor in Boothby is 1.81% (21% counted), needs about another 1.2% for Southcott to finally fall. Pyne looking safe in Sturt

Was always going to happen, and as you said don't count for didly squat in the big picture.

We're heading for a hung parliament people, but Labor will govern with the support of a couple of independants.

[dedja]

That, or a Labor majority by a bee's appendage ...

[am Bays]

That, or a Labor majority by a bee's appendage ...

Assuming the mining tax has no impact in WA.....

[dedja]

who knows what the sandgropers will do ...

[Brucetiki]

Current ABC projections

Labor 71
Coalition 64
Others 5

10 in doubt (including Boothby in SA)

Looking more likely that Labor will maintain government, either in it's own right or in a minority government. Costello is even admitting it's looking like a Labor minority government.