Federal Election Predictions

[Booney]

Hanging in the balance with little counting to be done, both skippers come out and speak...

What a way to ruin a nail biter.

[mal]

69 LABOR
71 LIBERALS
Its not over till its over
I didnt vote for either
Neither party had a policy to restrict the AFL Interchanges next season

[dedja]

FFS, now they're interviewing Little Johnny Howard ...

[southee]

Quite enjoyed tonight ....just quietly

[fisho mcspaz]

I am beginning to feel pessimistic... may not sleep tonight after all.

[Gozu]

Not looking good, I could see the Libs going into government with the support of a few of those ex-Nats Independents.

[southee]

Not looking good, I could see the Libs going into government with the support of a few of those ex-Nats Independents.

I can only hope.....

[GWW]

Its interesting that when the state election resulted in a hung parliament a few years back the 2 ex Liberals, Bob Such and Peter Lewis, both sided with Labor. I guess it will depend on how these ex National Party members feel about their former party and the coalition in general.

[Leaping Lindner]

Its interesting that when the state election resulted in a hung parliament a few years back the 2 ex Liberals, Bob Such and Peter Lewis, both sided with Labor. I guess it will depend on how these ex National Party members feel about their former party and the coalition in general.

Exactly. It's not like they've been treated well by the coalition in the past. One thing is for sure a couple of electorates in Queensland and New South Wales are going to do very nicely thank you very much. Democracy. What a concept.

[Wedgie]

Could Liberal win the unwinnable election?
Tony Abbot?
FFS, and Labor got us through the GTS.
Who were the retards in Labor HQ that got Gillard to take over from Rudd? If she loses this election she'd have to go down in history as the worst leader of all time, Mark Latham would be laughing his tits off.

Till Friday night I'd say anyone who treats an election like a footy game is a moron but after seeing the scoreline in the West v Port game I'd be confident in saying any election would be much more entertaining.

[Sojourner]

Cant see the Liberals forming a government with the Greens holding the balance of power in the senate, the same thing happened in Tasmania in the State Election where Liberals got more of the primary vote but Labor got in a hung parliament on preferences and the deal was done with the greens for power. If a Liberal government was formed federally it would not go remotely near three years and a double dissolution election would soon be held. I think the independents will realise this fact and take the various Cabinet and the Speaker positions in parliament so that a minority Labor government can be formed that will implement Green policy as directed by Bob Brown accordingly. Brown will have considerably more power courtesy of Labor preferences than any muppet the ALP put up as Prime Minister.

[Media Park]

Well Pyne's back in, with a greatly increased majority.

[redandblack]

Sojourner, with respect, very little of that is remotely likely.

Both sides have problems. I can't see the ALP being able to govern, unless they can persuade the independents that they are the only party to offer stability, as they will control the Senate (with the Greens). However, they will only be in this position if they can win an extra seat or two to bring themselves up to 73 seats or so.

The most likely scenario is that Abbott will govern with the ind's support. His problem will be that he will have come to power with everything conceivable going right for him at the election.

I would think that no serious analyst on here (it's OK, southee, I'll exclude you ) would argue that Abbott would have got near winning if the NSW and Qld State governments weren't so toxic.

For Labor, they achieved a huge swing in Tas and lost a seat there, a big swing in SA and gained nothing, a good swing in Vic for only a small gain.

The Liberals vote fell almost exactly to gain the maximum seat advantage, so as I've said all along, I think they're in a much better position to form a government.

[mick]

My prediction looking good He's not the mad monk - he is the messiah

[redandblack]

A couple of random points.

1 Labor currently have 50.7% of the 2PP vote, If that holds up, I look forward to the comments from the SA Lib supporters about democracy

2 Postal votes will be crucial. These usually favor LibNP, but sitting members can also be favoured.

[CK]

Postals will indeed be crucial here, R&B, couldn't agree more. As a rule, I've always considered they favour the sitting member, so that might throw a real wildcard into things there. Not the best outcome really, no matter which side wins - a recipe for instability.

Not sure what to say about Maxine McKew's speech on ABC last night, except that it was somewhat late to be raising all of her concerns about the campaign

[am Bays]

Postals will indeed be crucial here, R&B, couldn't agree more. As a rule, I've always considered they favour the sitting member, so that might throw a real wildcard into things there. Not the best outcome really, no matter which side wins - a recipe for instability.

Not sure what to say about Maxine McKew's speech on ABC last night, except that it was somewhat late to be raising all of her concerns about the campaign

Agree with that statement in bold - with respect to maxine i think she was raising it to a diferent audience, I got the impression she riased her feelings before in teh party room and during the election behind closed doors. Seems like others in teh NSW right (Arbib) know better

[am Bays]

Sojourner, with respect, very little of that is remotely likely.

Both sides have problems. I can't see the ALP being able to govern, unless they can persuade the independents that they are the only party to offer stability, as they will control the Senate (with the Greens). However, they will only be in this position if they can win an extra seat or two to bring themselves up to 73 seats or so.

The most likely scenario is that Abbott will govern with the ind's support. His problem will be that he will have come to power with everything conceivable going right for him at the election.
I would think that no serious analyst on here (it's OK, southee, I'll exclude you ) would argue that Abbott would have got near winning if the NSW and Qld State governments weren't so toxic.

For Labor, they achieved a huge swing in Tas and lost a seat there, a big swing in SA and gained nothing, a good swing in Vic for only a small gain.

The Liberals vote fell almost exactly to gain the maximum seat advantage, so as I've said all along, I think they're in a much better position to form a government.

R&B you thoughts about the likelihhod of a double disollution election within 18 months??

[Sojourner]

I think that a far more likely outcome will be that the Liberals will take the step backwards and let the Labor Party form the minority government with the Greens so that they can step back and watch whilst Labor have to find the coin to pay for all of their election promises in addition to implementing all the Green policy along with the Carbon Tax and the Mining Tax, both of which will push up inflation and interest rates for which Labor will be blamed for at the next election, allowing the Liberals to win by enough margin to keep them in for several campaigns as opposed to most likely only the one if they take power now and are themselves blamed for everything that goes wrong over the next three years.

[redandblack]

Sojourner, you're a thoughtful poster on a number of topics and more strength to you, but politics obviously isn't one of your strong points based on that post.

No political party ever 'lets' the other mob govern. Full stop.

aB, because of the senate position, it's always likely that there will be a DD, but I'm not convinced that will be a certainty. I'll have a think about it and respond to your good question.