Federal Election Predictions

[fisho mcspaz]

I'm still hopeful of the independents backing Labor. They're ex-Nationals for a reason, and they've said they won't work with Barnaby Joyce. Shaky ground to base hope on, yes, but there really isn't much else at this stage!

[ca]

For all the triumphalism from the Liberal camp, it's not a good result for either major party.
.

Not sure I agree with this, three years ago people were saying the party were no longer relevant and would disappear. I think given where both parties were at after the last election it's been an amazing turnaround and regardless of if they can form Government which I don't think they will, it's been a good result for the Liberals.

[redandblack]

I agree with what you're saying, ca, but I was framing it in terms of this particular result from the election campaign, as I've said previously. I was referring more to Tony Abbott's speech, which (IMO) indicated he thought the result was a clear win for him.

Compared with where they were 3 years ago, it's a great result for them and poor for Labor.

Compared with where they were 3 weeks ago, it's the other way, perhaps?

[Q.]

I'm loving this. It's great to see both major parties squirming and I am buoyed by the prospect of Australian politics drifting closer to the centre.

P.S. Was I the only one to predict a hung parliament

[mick]

I'm loving this. It's great to see both major parties squirming and I am buoyed by the prospect of Australian politics drifting closer to the centre.

P.S. Was I the only one to predict a hung parliament

smart arse

[Gozu]

"Abbott copied the Howard template":

Tony Abbott has learnt well from his mentor John Howard.

When he came to the leadership, many expected him to implode, wrecking his party along with him, as a result of his ideological fervour and indiscipline.

I suggested he would in effect destroy the Liberal Party, turning it into a “reactionary rump”.

Some rump. He’ll be Prime Minister within a few days, most likely.

Abbott did what Howard — who also had a reputation as an ideological extremist — did in his second stint as leader. He simply removed those elements of his political persona perceived as out of keeping with mainstream thinking. Instead of wanting to gut Medicare, Howard became “the best friend Medicare ever had.” Instead of stopping Asian immigration, Howard ran a high immigration program. Pressed on a GST, he declared “never ever” (although, thankfully, he recanted).

Like Howard’s transformation, it worked in convincing the electorate of his fundamental trustworthiness as a candidate for the Prime Ministership. Tony Abbott’s “unelectability” wasn’t a myth created by the left-wing media and the ALP. It showed up time and again in focus group research. Abbott was perceived as mad. But he assiduously worked to correct that.

In this, he was helped no end by a compliant, or in the case of News Ltd, partisan media.

http://www.crikey.com.au/2010/08/22/abb ... e-rewards/

[redandblack]

Surely he's not suggesting media bias towards Tony

[Gozu]

Surely he's not suggesting media bias towards Tony

Nah never lol Even Keane as a small l Liberal could see that.

R&B, seriously this is depressing. We're going to have this lunatic as PM. Who knows what amount of damage this guy will do to society before the new senate comes in in around nine months time.

Subsidies for chastity belts?

[Q.]

Gozu, didn't you end up preferencing a Liberal candidate over Labor

[Gozu]

Gozu, didn't you end up preferencing a Liberal candidate over Labor

Correct. I live in the seat of Port Adelaide. My vote was always irrelevant, Labor could put a cardboard box up as it's candidate in Port Adelaide and it would still win easily. Mark Butler is alright though.

[redandblack]

Gozu, this is a long way from over.

Seats still in play are Brisbane, Boothby, Dunkley and Hasluck.

My guess is thta all of those will go to the LNP, but it would only take one to Labor to chnage the dynamics.

Denison is now looking a fair chance for Labor over Wilkie as well/

Despite all that, I'd say it's only a 50/50 as to who the Ind's will support anyway.

We'll just have to wait and see.

[Gozu]

I think Hasluck is the only one worth worrying about. IMO whoever wins that seat will form government and I feel it would be closer to 70/30 those ex-Nats Independents fall into line and support the Coalition (much as the Greens MP & Wilkie would to Labor).

I think the main thing Labor has going for it in terms of trying to woo those ex-Nats is if they joined the Coalition they would have a much harder time trying to pass anything through the senate after mid-next year with the Greens holding the balance of power. But still they could almost do what they like in government until then though. Xenophon is a conservative at heart and is close to Barnaby Joyce.

[fisho mcspaz]

Just heard on the radio that Labor is closing in on Boothby and Dunkley.

[dedja]

Just when you thought it doesn't get any better ...

Bill Shorten's mother-in-law is non other than the Governor-General.

How potentially conflicted is that!

[Squawk]

Just when you thought it doesn't get any better ...

Bill Shorten's mother-in-law is non other than the Governor-General.

How potentially conflicted is that!

The GG is seeking legal advice on her position as GG and as Mother-in-Law to Bill Shorten. Smart move because the advice (IMHO) will say that there isn't a conflict of interest, and then she can rest on that if there is any unhappy campers out there. I can't see any party protesting though.

I still cant fathom why the Coalition at any level of govt dont shift themselves closer to the environmental cause, in the same way as Labor lurched to the right. I reckon there's a fair chance that a lot of Coalition voters would be sympathetic towards initiatives to protect the environment, so long as they aren't extreme. Rudd picked up a lot of votes from sympathetic greenies at the 2007 election, and it only takes a modicum of intestinal fortitude to have some slightly greener policy approaches. So c'mon Tony et al, take a few cuttings from some nice green plants, put them in a vase and watch them flower with time.

[Gozu]

I've been very encouraged by some of the things being said by two of those independents over the last few days (especially tonight), Oakeshott & Wilson. Both seem like reasonable people and have some good ideas including the need to put a price on carbon to try and tackle climate change. Those two could along with the Green potentially do a lot of good in government propping up a pretty ordinary Labor party.

[Squawk]

I've been very encouraged by some of the things being said by two of those independents over the last few days (especially tonight), Oakeshott & Wilson. Both seem like reasonable people and have some good ideas including the need to put a price on carbon to try and tackle climate change. Those two could along with the Green potentially do a lot of good in government propping up a pretty ordinary Labor party.

LOL Gozu. Made me think of a small irony - Gillard pledged a 150 person "Citizen's Assembly" to tackle climate change. Yet we have a national parliament with 150 odd seats and they (ie all of Parliament) cant work it out, let alone get a mandate from the people to form a government after an election that only requires the voters to determine the 'winners' for half those seats plus one! It seems that even the Australian public is confused!

[redandblack]

Gillard's Citizens' Assembly was a diabolical decision.

I agree about two of the independents, although Katter is a worry. As someone said to me yesterday "We're in trouble if a bloke who wears a cowboy hat is deciding our government"

I agree with you about the Assembly, squawk, good point.

The reason Tony won't get environmental is that he thinks climate change is crap and knifed Turnbull over it (that didn't get mentioned much by reporters in the campaign).

[Psyber]

Tony may, however, see the light of expediency and make a deal, just as the ALP would in other areas of policy, to gain power.
I am still sceptical about the climate changes we are seeing now being caused by man, but I support cleaning up our act anyway.
I am happier with the Democrats and the Greens policies here than with the token tax the ALP proposed that stripped any incentive to make real changes.
My only argument with the Greens there is that they still won't consider Thorium fission, and I can't see solar or wind power providing the necessary base load.

[Leaping Lindner]

Bob Katter's campaign ad. Yes ! This is legitimate not a pisstake
IMO A man who wears jeans with a tie and shirt shouldn't be allowed to walk down the street let alone in Parliament.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQ_zYZBD ... r_embedded