Who will be Prime Minister?

[Squawk]

Tony's costings were done on the back of an envelope and they lost the envelope and hoped nobody would notice

R&B that's a bit of a generalisation - the Libs did use Horvath's to do them.

To be fair, even Treasury costings are prone to being rubbery. Many policy announcements lack sufficient detail to enable costing with comfort re their accuracy. Wait until the state budget is released and I bet careful scrutiny will unveil some discrepancies. All covered over by the "savings" initiatives of the Sustainable Budget Commission. And why did we have to have that? Because otherwise the budget/balance sheet is completely ****.

[Leaping Lindner]

I can't see how either Party can form minority Government. Both the Libs and ALP showed during the election campaign they hate minorities.

Sorry LL would love to reply in full to this obviously erroneous statement but the Adelaide Hills regions have just been overrun by a swarm of illegal dusky skinned queue jumpers demanding sunbeds and 3D plasma screens.

My God! That's dreadful. I hope they aren't gay as well.

[redandblack]

I stand corrected, squawk, it was an A4 sheet of paper

Seriously, though, Joe Hockey said Horvath's had ''áudited'' them. They did no such thing, of course, they merely affirmed the calculations, but said they just accepted the assumptions.

Not worth the proverbial.

[dedja]

[dedja]

I note that Stephen Fielding has made some noises about his voting intentions in the 'dead' senate period between the end of the election and June 30.

He claims that Labor has no legitimacy for government ... so he thinks he can help decide the next governnment by voting accordingly as a senator who has been rejected by the people and hence has no legitimacy, only because of a stupid quirk in the senate electoral process.

So if the coalition didn't get the required 76 seats either, how are they more legitimate than labor?

This is the same senator who only got into parliament in the first place on 20,000 odd votes by a preference quirk.

Oh, and by the way Stephen, the House of Reps decides the government of the day, not the Senate, so you're wasting your breath anyway.

FFS, Mr Fielding, you are the weakest link, goodbye!

[Psyber]

Guys, this is not a moral issue and the rights and wrongs of what people did won't matter unless somebody actually breached the Electoral Act, [or whatever it is called].
It is an issue of who can muster the numbers, and moral right or behaviour will have nothing to do with it.
[Just as well, as one man's moral may be another's immoral when it comes to politics.]

[Psyber]

PS: Well done, Psyber, most posters I read (not on this intelligent forum) write 'tow the line', so I thank you for your correct use. (yes, I know I'm pedantic).

Me too. At least some of us, who actually learned English, are still around!

[redandblack]

I've noticed that Tony Abbott is now calling on people to support him by using the term 'patriots'.

People are only patriotic if they support you, Tony?

Worrying dogwhistling, borrowed directly from the US right.

[Leaping Lindner]

aB, I am heartened, but a lifetime of watching close election counts makes me pessimistic that Labor will win, even though my psephological opinion would be that he should

My summary remains:

If Labor hold Corangamite and/or win Brisbane, they'll form government.

If they lose both, Tony will do so.

In any event, it's as close as you could get.

Phew, Theresa Gambero has increased her lead from 382 to 684 votes of Bevis this morning. Wyatt is looking a good thing in Hasluck. It is going to be good to have an indigenous voice in the lower house.

First women (HoR), youngest ever (HOR and Senate), first indigenous member (HoR and Senate), first member of Asian decent into the Senate. The Labor party talks diversity of electable members, the Liberal party practices it.

Yeah...not really going to plan that one.....

http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western ... 5911296823

[southee]

I've noticed that Tony Abbott is now calling on people to support him by using the term 'patriots'.

People are only patriotic if they support you, Tony?

Worrying dogwhistling, borrowed directly from the US right.

Bit like "working familes" or the usual Labor Union hack word "my conrads"

[Psyber]

Meanwhile back at the count: http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/
At this point it looks like being: Labor 72, Coalition 73, Greens 1, Others 4.

[redandblack]

We've been down that track, Psyber.

72-72 -1-1-4.

Southee, with respect, there's a big difference between campaign slogans of either side and the deliberate use of language to dogwhistle.

[ca]

Edit : A bit to inflamatory so will delete, will just say Bob Katter is a nutter.

[smac]

I agree ca. How is the fate of a democracy left in the hands of three to decide? Particularly when one of the three is Katter.

[Psyber]

Meanwhile in SA we have a reminder of what will be the priority of any Federal government we eventually get:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010 ... 996209.htm

Super boost for MPs riles public servants Posted Sat Aug 28, 2010 6:25pm AEST
A 6.4 per cent boost to superannuation benefits for South Australian MPs has been condemned by the Public Service Association (PSA).
Treasurer Kevin Foley says the proposed rise from 9 per cent to 15.4 per cent will bring the state's politicians in line with their Federal counterparts. The change has bipartisan support.
But PSA chief industrial officer Peter Christopher says it will not be a popular move with $750 million in public sector cuts forecast for next month's state budget.

[Psyber]

We've been down that track, Psyber. 72-72 -1-1-4...

Point taken, I'd overlooked the fact that the ABC may be counting the guy from WA as a Coalition member, and just quoted their figures.

PS: I picked up this aside that may explain why the ABC put him in with the Coalition:

The Nationals will meet for the first time since the election in Canberra, with newly elected WA MP Tony Crook joining the party room for the first time.
Mr Crook, who ousted veteran Liberal MP Wilson Tuckey, has said he is not keen to join the coalition party room, initially entertaining the idea of siding with Labor until Prime Minister Julia Gillard refused to rule out the mining tax.

http://au.news.yahoo.com/election/a/-/l ... -heffernen

[bulldogproud2]

The numbers may even get lower for the Coalition. There is talk of the National Party breaking the Coalition unless their members are given the same benefits that are being offered by Tony Abbott to the Independents. I can't see it happening but you never know with the Nationals.
Sort of makes any disunity in the Labor Party seem fairly insignificant.
Cheers

P.S. I did find that news report fairly strange because I didn't think Abbott was offering the Independents anything.

[Psyber]

The numbers may even get lower for the Coalition. There is talk of the National Party breaking the Coalition unless their members are given the same benefits that are being offered by Tony Abbott to the Independents. I can't see it happening but you never know with the Nationals.
Sort of makes any disunity in the Labor Party seem fairly insignificant.
Cheers

P.S. I did find that news report fairly strange because I didn't think Abbott was offering the Independents anything.

It does sound odd. The Coalition Nationals get a percentage of the Ministries, as part of being in a coalition, whereas the real Independents have already said they aren't looking for that.
I would expect any concessions for rural development would apply equally to all rural seats anyway and the Independents would want that too.

[ca]

We've been down that track, Psyber.

72-72 -1-1-4.

Southee, with respect, there's a big difference between campaign slogans of either side and the deliberate use of language to dogwhistle.

For what it's worth which could be nothing Warren Truss seems fairly confident that Crook would at least help form Government. Nothing public from Crook but it looks like we can now settle the argument of who won the most seats. If he helps form a stable Government long term is another story.

[Q.]

We've been down that track, Psyber.

72-72 -1-1-4.

Southee, with respect, there's a big difference between campaign slogans of either side and the deliberate use of language to dogwhistle.

For what it's worth which could be nothing Warren Truss seems fairly confident that Crook would at least help form Government. Nothing public from Crook but it looks like we can now settle the argument of who won the most seats. If he helps form a stable Government long term is another story.

Crook to the Coalition. Bandt to Labor. Makes it 73 each.