IS the NBN really the goods?

[Psyber]

I came across this post on another forum - sound analysis or sour grapes from a Telstra employee?:

Re: Labor to form government - Postby xxxxxx » Wed Sep 08, 2010 4:43 pm

I got sent this from a friend's brother, my son an IT consultant in town agrees with the sentiments expressed, I thought I would pass it on for your thoughts

"I am a network architect for one of Australia ’s largest Telco’s - so I speak with some authority on this issue.

Here are the technical reasons NBN will fail :

1) fibre optic cable has a maximum theoretical lifespan of 25 years when installed in conduit. Over time, the glass actually degrades (long story), and eventually it cant do it`s bouncing of light thing any more. But when you install fibre outside on overhead wiring (as will be done for much of Australia ’s houses, except newer suburbs with underground wiring), then the fibre degrades much quicker due to wind, temperature variation and solar/cosmic radiation. The glass in this case will last no more than 15 years. So after 15 years, you will have to replace it. Whereas the copper network will last for many decades to come. Fibre is not the best technology for the last mile. That`s why no other country has done this.

2) You can not give every house 100Mbps. If you give several million households 100Mbps bandwidth, then you have exceeded the entire bandwidth of the whole internet. In reality, there is a thing called contention. Today, every ADSL service with 20Mbps has a contention ratio of around 20:1 (or more for some carriers). That means, you share that 20Mbps with 20 other people. It`s a long story why, but there will NEVER be the case of people getting 100Mbps of actual bandwidth. Not for several decades at current carrier equipment rates of evolution. The “Core” can not and will not be able to handle that sort of bandwidth. The 100Mbps or 1Gbps is only the speed from your house to the exchange. From there to the Internet, you will get the same speeds you get now. The “Core” of Australia ’s network is already fibre (many times over). And even so, we still have high contention ratios. Providing fibre to the home just means those contention ratios go up. You will not get better download speeds.

3) new DSL technologies will emerge. 15 years ago we had 56k dial-up. Then 12 years ago we got 256k ADSL, then 8 years ago 1.5Mbps ADSL2, then 5 years ago 20Mbps ADSL2+. There are already new DSL technologies being experimented on that will deliver over 50Mbps on the same copper we have now. $zero cost to the tax payer

4) 4G wireless is being standardised now. The current 3G wireless was developed for voice and not for data, and even so it can deliver up to 21Mbps in Australia . There are problems with it, but remember that it was developed for voice. The 4G standard is specifically being developed for data, and will deliver 100Mbps bandwidth with much higher reliability (yes, the same contention issues apply mentioned earlier). $zero cost to the tax payer

5) The “NBN” will be one of the largest single networks ever built on earth. There are only a few companies who could do it - Japan's Nippon NTT, BT, AT&T;, Deutsche Telekom etc. Even Telstra would struggle to built something on this scale. Yet we are led to believe that the same people who cant build school halls or install insulation without being ripped off are going to to do it ??? Here at Telstra, we are laughing our heads off !! Because when it all comes crumbling down, after they have spent $60+billion and the network is no more than 1/2 complete, it will be up to Telstra to pick up the pieces ! (shhhh don't tell anyone, it`s our secret)

[Trader]

If you could find holes in his points then yes, sour grapes perhaps. I know SFA about this wizz bang technology stuff so I cant.

[dedja]

There are some true, some deliberately misleading and some outright untruths in the commentary above.

As a few on this site would have realised by now, I work in the IT industry ... in fact, I am an IT Manager who currently has responsibility for a very large and diverse network (amongst other things).

This network could only ever be sustained by optic fibre ... nothing else comes close when it comes to flexibility and scalability. Also, the cost differential of installing fibre vs copper is negligble from a cabling perspective.

To not commence deploying fibre now as proposed by NBN, either as a very large project or on an incremental basis, would be sheer lunacy.

To quickly address the comments above:

1) mostly bullshit ... if it was true, why do Telstra currently largely provision through fibre and not copper now?

2) mostly true ... speed will only be as good as the weakest link, but this is the case at the moment. Current internet experience and speed varies dramatically and will continue to do so with the NBN solution. What NBN does do is futureproof as much as possible which is still worth the effort.

3) This is a Hail Mary! ... copper is very distance dependent ie. the speed and service degrades over distances of only a few Kms. This will be true of any DSL or other technology. The degradation of speed and service utilising fibre is over a much, much larger distance. If in doubt, ask anyone who has a basic understanding of physics.

4) Mostly bullshit. Contention over wireless is many, many more times over wired. Always has been and always will be. If you are currently a 3G user of Optus services you will understand the argument.

5) LOL at Telstra ... the NBN will bring the much deserved competition the Australian consumer has been yearning for years. Telstra are currently holding back innovation and progress solely to protect their market share. There is already a significant FTTN (fibre to the node) network currently in place within the Telstra network, but we as consumers don't see the benefit because Telstra are too busy squeezing out their competitors from utilising it that they have dropped the ball on behalf of the consumer.


The vision and strategy opportunity to be provisoned by what is known as NBN will be one of the most innovative and best things for this country for many, many more years to come.

The Federal Government should also show some balls and immediately implement a forced restructure of Telstra to seperate their wholesale and retail arms. We will then start to get true competition in the telco sector.

Amen.

[Media Park]

i voted for the other guy

[Q.]

i voted for the other guy

You don't get awesome broadband then

[Kahuna]

The source of this "email" appears to be a reply to an Andrew Bolt article---
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andr ... will_fail/

Look in the comments about a third of the way down the page

[dedja]

good pick up ...

[Kahuna]

Dedja what do I need to do to make my link clickable?

[dedja]

a reply on the same blog http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andr ... _will_fail


Jeremy replied to PMG
Tue 17 Aug 10 (09:32am)
PMG, there are reasons to be critical of Labor’s NBN but you’ve failed to mention any. To rebut each of your points:

1. Better tell your bosses at Telstra to tear up the tens of thousands of kilometres of fibre they’ve installed - the stuff doesn’t last forever!

2. Every network has a contention ratio, even an office LAN isn’t built to deliver 100% bandwidth to every node simultaneously. I don’t see why this should be a problem for NBN specifically, typical use patterns are well understood and the network can be designed accordingly.

3. The amazing new DSL technology involves two copper pairs instead of the usual one - so basically two DSL services running side by side, and what do you know, it’s twice as fast as just one! So how does this help the million or so Australians who can’t get DSL at all, and the much greater number with such poor quality copper lines they can’t even reach half of the theoretical maximum speed of ADSL2+? The copper network was never designed to do this sort of thing and it’s time it was replaced.

4. You claim to be a “network architect” but suggest wireless technology can deliver broadband to the entire country. There are always better wireless technologies around but the laws of physics won’t go away, and a shared wireless service will fall in a heap if it’s subjected to the sort of loads placed on the current fixed-line network. Who cares if 4G delivers 100Mbps, that bandwidth has to be shared by hundreds of people trying to watch iView at the same time every night.

5. The network is being built by NBNco, not the Labor party, and it employs a lot of very smart people who have so far delivered on time and under budget. This isn’t something Telstra is well known for so I wouldn’t laugh too hard! SNIPPED

[dedja]

Dedja what do I need to do to make my link clickable?

I've done it in my post ... hit return after you past the link next time.

[redden whites]

There are some true, some deliberately misleading and some outright untruths in the commentary above.

That is all I need to read......Thank you Dedja

[Kahuna]

Dedja what do I need to do to make my link clickable?

I've done it in my post ... hit return after you past the link next time.

Thanks for that

[Media Park]

i voted for the other guy

You don't get awesome broadband then

totally... like... bummer dude...

[fish]

i voted for the other guy

You don't get awesome broadband then

No you get Tony Abbotts "high fibre" network!

[Media Park]

As long as I don't cop an eyeful of him in his budgie smugglers...

In all seriousness, I don't expect to get any difference re my internet anyway, so it wasn't a big selling point in who to vote for.

[mick]

I'm pretty happy with the ADSL2+ service I have now as I'm within 1.5km of the exchange , but I couldn't give a toss whether I can download movies on demand. I can always schedule downloads whilst at work. It is a huge issue for the regions, where many are still tied to dialup speeds. I must admit the NBN was not an important issue for me.

[Psyber]

I was surprised by the trend in these figures - I thought the support for the NBN would be higher.
Admittedly the numbers are very small and it is a poll of Yahoo7 users.

Yahoo7 Poll: Are you pleased the NBN will now go ahead as planned?
Yes 43% 217 votes
No 57% 292 votes

[redandblack]

Margin of error - up to 100%

[Psyber]

I suspect all polls are push polls these days.
I agree there is a huge margin for error with such small numbers, but I expected any poll on such a pop web site to be overwhelmingly for the NBN.

[dedja]

Structural separation of Telstra a step closer ...