Viva Le Tour - Tour de France 2011

[The Sleeping Giant]

the sprinters to have some fun at the end, otherwise a leisurely ride for everyone else ... token rest day.

A scenery and history stage on SBS tonight.

[mickey]

Tom Boonen has just got in the team car and is out of the tour.

Crashed heavily in stage 5 never recovered, actually surprised he fought on this far

[Grahaml]

Probably knew when he got back on his bike right after the crash, but what other option does a rider have than to battle it out? Not as sad as watching Rogers withdraw from the virtual yellow jersey when Contador won his first tour after a crash though.

There's talk of a possible post intermediate sprint attack using a cross wind on the TV coverage, but I think that's just talk. Would be great to see it tried though.

Comment about Cadel being mentally weaker than the others is 100% wrong. He mightn't have the pure power that Schleck and Contador has but a tougher and mentally stronger rider there isn't. Which is why he's still a chance.

[geppscrossrams]

Bradley Wiggins has pulled out of the tour after crashing in today's stage.

[Grahaml]

I went away briefly and came back to hear the carnage. Apparently not even any camera shots of the actual accident just of blokes picking up bikes and swapping wheels around. Wiggins no doubt the biggest casualty. I'm amazed at the way you see blokes unable to move an arm or something yet they want to get onto the bike anyway. Always looked a collarbone and you feel for the teammates who could do nothing but wait and watch their tour goals vanish before their eyes.

Cadel and his team though, once again unscathed. After the last few years of seeing him get caught in these moments I keep waiting to see him picking himself up. In fact whenever a Radioshack rider is down I half expect it to be Cadel since they've got similar colours.

We also saw a lot of other podium chances more or less dashed. Leipheimer looks like he might now have to become a helper for Kloden (who I rate but never seems to get the #1 job anywhere) so RS aren't done with just yet. The upcoming rest day, even though it's after 2 slightly tricky stages, will probably come just in time for some riders who worked harder than they'd have liked on such a flat stage, like Vinkourov.

[Grahaml]

Looking towards the next 2 stages, the scene is set for a breakaway to stay off the front on both stages. Sunday's stage in particular might see someone break off to get points in 8 different KOM spots. Max points there would only be just a little more than an HC win is worth, but they add up in a competition like the tour. Expecially if you can be somewhere near the front on some of those epic stages later on.

Tomorrow I expect a lot more interest in a breakaway. We might even see a larger group split off with perhaps most teams wanting at least 1 rider to get into it. The main sprinter's teams probably won't chase and Hushovd won't expect to be able to defend yellow so unless there's a dangerous rider up front it'll be the age old story of any team not in the break gets to do the pacemaking.

Best hope for an aussie win tomorrow is Simon Gerrans. Sky without Wiggins to ride for will need a shot in the arm. Gerrans has the ability to go off on breakaways and is a good enough uphill sprinter to get the job done. The other Sky riders who have the ability are too dangerous to be allowed to get back into the race. Coupled with my gut feel that unless someone dangerous gets into a breakaway the peloton will just control the time lost I think Cadel will stick with the group and wait for Bastille Day, which promises to be an epic stage.

[whufc]

Feel free to move if this belongs in the gambling thread BUT Phil Liggett last night was talking about tomorrows stage with a sports director for one of the teams and they mentioned that David Millar was going to have a real crack at tonights stage victory.

I noticed he was paying $196 on Sportsbet!!!

1- does that sound about right

and

2- does he have a realistic chance of winning.

[Grahaml]

He's got a chance, but if he wins it'll be jumping away in the last kilometre or so to try and get a few seconds on Cadel Evans. But I personally don't think he'll be in the group that crosses the line first or able to shake the serious climbers. So $196 sounds about right to me.

[redandblack]

graham, I agree with you 100% about Evan's mental strength.

Some of his efforts in past years when he's had to do it alone against team riding in the mountains took real courage.

The Tour is one of the great TV events. Some of the early stages this year brought back memories of some years ago when I drove some of the roads in Brittany covered by the riders.

[Jim05]

I know its early but what would this mean to Australia if Cadel wins?
Been arguing at work and most people dont rate it very highly but personally id rate it better than a Wimbledon win. With the Tours history and prestige id rate it as one of Australias finest sporting moments. Please help me out guys im badly out numbered with most rating a wimbledon win far superior.

[mickey]

STAGE 8 TONIGHT

The last 1.5km sis uphill, and the 1st real decent climb of the tour so far

[pels]

I know its early but what would this mean to Australia if Cadel wins?
Been arguing at work and most people dont rate it very highly but personally id rate it better than a Wimbledon win. With the Tours history and prestige id rate it as one of Australias finest sporting moments. Please help me out guys im badly out numbered with most rating a wimbledon win far superior.

IMHO it would be much bigger than a wimbledon win.
7 games to win a wimbledon crown compared to 21 days 3,000 km cycling not even a comparison in my opinion

[pels]

The 1st week has been absolute chaos with all the crashes.
Tonight should give us a good indication of who can win this tour, should be an interesting stage.

[Squawk]

I know its early but what would this mean to Australia if Cadel wins?
Been arguing at work and most people dont rate it very highly but personally id rate it better than a Wimbledon win. With the Tours history and prestige id rate it as one of Australias finest sporting moments. Please help me out guys im badly out numbered with most rating a wimbledon win far superior.

IMHO it would be much bigger than a wimbledon win.
7 games to win a wimbledon crown compared to 21 days 3,000 km cycling not even a comparison in my opinion

Closer to having parallels to the America's Cup win of 1983, or making the final of the World Cup Soccer, IMHO.

A win at Wimbledon takes 7 consecutive singles wins over two weeks, with 128 competitors and playing every second day. These guys are riding 6 hours a day with about 2 rest days over 3 weeks plus. And they can't win it individually, they can only win it on behalf of their team's effort which is 8 other riders plus all the support behind the scenes. Each team has a squad of around 20+ riders they use throughout the UCI season, with the best 9 picked for the TDF. The big names will very much pick and choose their races and often they don't do the other two grand tours of Italy and Spain. Essentially, they train year round to peak for the TDF. As well as finish each stage, a team member must finish within a determined percentage of the winning time, or they are eliminated.

Wimbledon has very few variables to factor in to the equation, whereas in the TDF there are so many things that can go against an individual or a team on any one day of the tour and cost that rider/team overall victory. Remember, when Cadel was runner up it was by a mere 23 seconds IIRC. That's like winning every set in a tiebreaker and then playing a monster 5th set in the final when you suddenly break a string serving at deuce and then break a string again on break point, and lose the title.

[Jim05]

Fantastic ride by Rui Costa to lead from start to finish. Evans had a great ride to finish 3rd.

[mickey]

What a good nights racing, breakaway succeeds (1 rider out of 9) contador didn't look overly comfortable over the last km and couldn't really go with Cadel when he attacked...

[NFC]

Cadel looks freaking sublime out there, he's totally in control.

Fingers crossed.

[Grahaml]

Evans is clearly in much better form than ever. Whether that remains for the whole tour remains to be seen, but kicked away from Schleck and Contador nicely there. Looks punchier than ever too. Once again, not hanging onto, but leading the main 2. I'd be watching him very carefully if I was Leopard-Trek and SaxoBank. Especially with the strength his team showed. Contador's team did nothing but follow and still fell off the back.

I'm going to call it, might be early, and I won't write off a 3 time champ, but he's no longer the favourite in my eyes. I give that title to Andy Schleck now.

As for what this means, I immediately thought of the America's cup too. Was a fairly obscure sport we had little mainstream interest in until we did it. Tennis is clearly a different sport, where luck plays a greater part, you only need to beat 7 people and one totally horrible mistake costs you 1 point. In the TDF 1 moment's error sees you on the ground or missing a move. Either one can cost seconds, minutes of the whole tour as Wiggins saw yesterday.

Finally, I did call success in a breakaway and I think it'll happen again tomorrow. Gerrans is our breakaway stage winner chance and Sky will be racing for stages and young rider titles now. But even young rider they look rather unlikely for now. So every day, we'll see them out front. One day it'll be Gerrans on probably a stage with an uphill sprint finish where he'll give it a crack.

[Squawk]

The difference this time around for Cadel is clear - his team and the support it gives him. I cant help but think that in past years he has used a lot more personal energy stores to stay near the front and be in a position to try and at least 'hold' Contador, Schleck x 2, etc and pray for good results in the TTT and ITT to get him over the line.

This year, he has had a great pilot in Hincapie and amazing team support that has been with him at the FRONT of the peleton throughout. He's often sitting 5th wheel getting great protection.

Tonight's stage looks to be the first real test. Last night I had to admire Vinikourov's individual determination which nearly came off for him. I still cant fathom how he ended up losing 30-40 seconds in the last km though after being 12 seconds behind Costa. Did he have a mechanical issue or did he just hit the wall? No one seems to be talking about his great fadeout in the last km.

Notwithstanding, Evans, Schleck and Contador were still all focussed on one another. I reckon a few other potential winners might have learnt something from Vinikourov last night and try and steal a break tonight, especially with the rest day to follow and the opportunity to put a bit more effort in tonight and have a full day to 'recover' via a leisurely 150km team ride.

[Squawk]

I'm gonna tip Voeckler tonight - he sits just around Contador in the GC standings and will be keen to get a stage win, especially as a Frenchman is yet to do so. A stage win would be a double bonus if he could advance up the GC as well.