Like this bet for Round 8...thoughts?

[Dutchy]

Lads,

Reckon Ive got a good bet this weekend....Richmond come to Adelaide on the back of some floggings and the stats show why -

Average Score of 82 pts against 92 AFL Average
Last 3 games they have scored 65, 75 & 76 against teams that play open footy and not really highly defensive teams
Inside 50's average is 46 against AFL Average of 51

They dont have the midfield to penetrate the 50 enough and havent they got the forwards to score especially if Richo is playing the ruck.

add to this that the Crows are conceding 71 points per game so far and we all know how stingey the Adelaide defence is. Also add that Showers are predicted on Friday at AAMI.

So whats the bet?

Total Low Score for Round 8 - Richmond are $4-00 (were $4.20)

I cant see them scoring more than 10 goals and a good possibility that they will score only 6 or 7 therefore I believe that Richmond are a even money chance of kicking the low score for the round, but the TAB are offering $4-00!!!

The other games -

Ess/Bris - This will be a shootout at the dome
Gee/Freo - Freo worry me a bit, but fine weather is predicted for Sunday so Ill risk them
Hawks/Saints - Should be a medium/high scoring game
Roos/Carlton - Defence isnt a strong point here another shoot out
SS/Port - Fine day predicted and both teams should be able to score 12+ goals
WB/Coll - will be medium to high scoring
WCE/Melb - Melb getting players back and play OK at Subi

Any feedback lads?...Im already on!

[THE MOLE]

Yeah i got on yesterday and probably brought the price in 20c!!!
I also put $10 on the crows for the low score for the round at $42 as a saver, it would be safe to say it will be a low scoring game

[Dutchy]

I like to hear that your on as well Mole being an expert in the high/lows!!!...might look at a few high/lows as well with Rich being the low

[Ecky]

I wouldn't be so sure with rain forecast for Melbourne on Saturday which could easily affect the Geel vs Freo and Haw v StK games.

[Dutchy]

but not on Sunday when the Geelong/Freo game is on....rain doesnt concern me at the G

[THE MOLE]

West coast have been very low scoring the last few weeks, im a bit worried about them holding melbourne to a low score, but i should be able to cover that in my high/lows

[Ecky]

but not on Sunday when the Geelong/Freo game is on....rain doesnt concern me at the G

Geelong vs Freo is Saturday.

[Dutchy]

but not on Sunday when the Geelong/Freo game is on....rain doesnt concern me at the G

Geelong vs Freo is Saturday.

right again Ecky might have a saver on Friday when we know the weather for sure

[Sam_goUUUdogs]

Got $10 on West Coast-Richmond High-low double @ $25.00

[bayman]

yeah i'm on that as well dutchy i've also had nibbles at wce & adel both high into richmond & melbourne both low

[Dutchy]

Opened $4.20 then THE MOLE hit it
Shortened to $4-00 then Dutchy and the Bayman hit it...
Now into $3.75....whose next in line!!!

[Dutchy]

Didnt mention above that Richmond's last 5 games against Adelaide they have scored 69, 62, 86, 59 & 44 points!!!!

[Dissident]

Didnt mention above that Richmond's last 45 games against Adelaide they have scored 69, 62, 86, 59 & 44 points!!!!

Christ, 45 games - that's a lot!

[Dutchy]

Didnt mention above that Richmond's last 45 games against Adelaide they have scored 69, 62, 86, 59 & 44 points!!!!

Christ, 45 games - that's a lot!

WADH!!!

[Dutchy]

Now into $3.25!!!!!!!

[brod]

Just shows that stats dont allow for the HUMAN factor that makes our game so great and shows that nothing is a sure thing

[Dutchy]

Just shows that stats dont allow for the HUMAN factor that makes our game so great and shows that nothing is a sure thing

never said it was a sure thing just good value...90 points...still a show but unlikely I would think....bloody crows defence decided to have a night off!!!