OAKSY Doggies Tips

[Oaksnaf]

GOT A FOOTY FUNCTION AT ANGLE PARK TONIGHT
SO WILL BE CHECKING THIS THREAD FOR TIPS LATER GUYS!

no good things tonight Johno, all too hard

Might get lucky then hopefully

cash in now on Oaksy winners

box his top 4 in the exotics and collect

Currently my sample for this year's racing is:

TOP RATING
192 Races
Winners Returning $194.90
Placings $200.52
OVERLAYS
85 Races
Returning $98.40

2ND RATING
192 Races
Winners Returning $216.70
Placings $195.74
OVERLAYS
116 Races
Returning $152

The 3rd rating is a MASSIVE loser @ -60% POT on OVERLAYS. But S/R is still good enough to show my handicapping is right, just that wagering would be extremely poor.

[Oaksnaf]

WARRAGUL RACE 10

1 MILKY $3.50
8 ERICA BLACK $4.80
10 RUBY ROCKET $6.59
3 CAPTAIN CASTILE $7.32
6 WHITE RABBIT $11.15
7 CIA BYE $18.89
5 RAGTIME ADRIAN $23.32
2 CATANKEROUS $31.99

[mighty_tiger_79]

SO BASICALLY THE key is to just load up on the OVERLAYS on the top 2 rated dogs and $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

[Oaksnaf]

SO BASICALLY THE key is to just load up on the OVERLAYS on the top 2 rated dogs and $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

It also helps work out where the value is for exotic betting and how to wager correctly. I'm working out my S/R for all my Ratings at their positions to see if my handicapping is all in order.

[Oaksnaf]

GEELONG RACE 1

7 POPAT PORT $2.77
3 SMITHYS GIRL $6.43
1 DARLEY SOS $7.94
5 HYPER TIME $8.83
2 PURE TULIP $10.90
4 SHOULD YOU DAIRE $16.61
6 GALBA PAUL $20.51
8 BUSTER DOUGLAS $22.78

[mighty_tiger_79]

back the top 2 overlays and and then betfair the 3rd rated!

[Oaksnaf]

WARRAGUL RACE 11

1 HOT SYND $2.92
6 FIRE WITH ICE $5.49
8 ASHTON CAYA $8.37
2 BLOWFLY JO $9.30
7 GEOFFREYS ALONE $11.49
5 TAMMYS LANKAN $15.76
4 HOPETOWN HANNAH $19.45
3 SOUTHWOOD JUMA $21.62

[mighty_tiger_79]

when are healesville moving midweek?

[Oaksnaf]

GEELONG RACE 2

3 WHEELS $4.10
5 LAWN MOWER $5.06
1 BRETT HUNT $6.25
2 LADY BOMBER $6.94
6 SPANISH DUCHESS $9.52
8 WORTH A DIAMOND $14.52
7 STARLIGHT WHIRL $22.13
4 DR HENRY $27.32

I give #3 Wheels a chance to win here even though he will likely go wide at the bend. Can jump quite well, and if holds out 5,6 - then this gives the insides the run a more improved race. #5 though is the best animal in this field I feel and will only need a bit of luck to win. But #3 Wheels to lead this field

[Oaksnaf]

when are healesville moving midweek?

I am not sure. They haven't been approved yet. But they do have 3 mid-week meetings coming up in March/April.

[Oaksnaf]

WARRAGUL RACE 12

3 MISS CONTROL $3.58
6 PARUMBA GLEN $4.91
8 EXPLOSIVE DOLLY $6.06
5 CHEAP FLIGHTS $8.32
2 TAIPA TIGER $12.68
7 EL ZHAR $15.65
1 CITIZIN JANE $21.47
4 WILLY MAKE IT $23.85

[Oaksnaf]

GEELONG RACE 3

4 HEART OF THUNDER $3.74
3 ARVOS RODRIGO $4.62
5 WHO TOLD LOCHIE $7.04
1 WEE BELLA $7.82
7 CARDIAC ARREST $9.65
6 PEDRO SHIRAZ $13.24
2 TOMMIE HUNT $14.71

[Oaksnaf]

GEELONG RACE 4

5 BUNNERONG LASS $3.64
7 LIKE JAMES $5.55
6 SPLENDID SHIRAZ $6.85
1 GALBA BILLY $7.61
2 ROCK MONSTER $9.40
3 ROSIE HUNT $14.32
4 MONT $19.64
8 POSON OAK $24.25

[WestIndiesWonder24]

looking at the box challenege tonight at sandown does number 2 look under the odds is $2 think should be about $4

[Oaksnaf]

I would look at #1 and #4 for the box challenge.

[Oaksnaf]

angle park thursday

just for johno

markets to 100% win only, some dogs cant win but they can place.

race 1

very open race here, no early pace to note. the 8 will be shorter, has a split personality if we just knew which one would rock up, we could analyse this better

4- $5.37
1- $6.63
3- $6.63
2- $8.18
8- $8.18
10- $9.09
6- $10.10
5- $17.11

race 2 - we have early pace from the 1 and 8. i dont rate the red, but it is worth including in exotics as it should get a soft lead. im looking at the placings being filled by slowish beginners who will charge home hard.

3- $5.77
7- $5.77
4- $6.42
5- $7.92
10- $8.80
8--- $8.80
2 $12.07
1- $20.45

race 3 - the 7 looks the early leader here and if it can get a good break it can win

5 - $6.22
7 - $6.92
1 - $7.68
3 - $7.68
6 - $8.54
8 - $8.54
4 - $9.49
2 - $10.54


race 4 - market is done on reputation - the 6 cawbourne jet has good form going back late last year, was beaten by an exciting young bitch Jazzinator and if it can reclaim that run it will win. it will be good odds, as its drawn poorly

6- $4.51
4- $6.18
3- $7.63
7- $7.63
8- $7.63
2- $10.47
5- $12.93
1- $19.71

race 5 -
kick start to the quaddie
lots of early pace here, but im really keen on 1,2,8 being the class runners here and being able to go close to running the trify. the 5,6 and to a lesser degree also the 7 have early pace but from the draw they have, they would need to be quick early.

2 - $5.04
8 - $5.60
1 - $6.22
4 - $6.92
5 - $7.68
7 - $10.54
3 - $17.85
6 - $27.20

race 6 - the class runner here is the 7 Fire tyson

no real early pace apart from the 3 who looks the clear 2nd pick but the 7 is a far stronger dog and should win

quaddie - take the 7 one out on a ticket and then save on the 3 and if wanna go wider only 1,5

7- $1.65
3- $11.01
1- $13.60
5-- $15.11
2- $18.65
8- $23.03
4-- $25.59
6- $35.10

race 7

trifecta jackpot
quaddie players should look at the top 4

2- $4.84
7- $5.98
8- $5.98
6- $7.38
4- $9.11
3- $11.25
1- $13.88
5- $19.04


race 8
great race here, the 8 is the best dog but not quite upto its best form

quaddie top 4

8- $5.40
3- $6.00
4- $6.00
2- $8.23
5- $8.23
6 $9.15
7- $9.15
1- $49.38

race 9 - over 600m the 7 should LAW

7- $3.85
3- $5.28
2- $5.86
6- $5.86
4- $6.51
8- $23.06
1- $81.64


RACE 10
Looks a fairly clear cut race here


5 - $3.99
2 - $4.92
7 - $4.92
8 - $6.75
1 - $12.70
3 - $15.68
6 - $29.50
4 - $55.51


race 11

the 10 goes to box 2, and should settle 4th on the fence at the first turn

8- $4.39
10- $4.88
3- $7.44
4- $10.21
1- $11.34
9- $11.34
5- $12.60
6- $12.60

FANTASTIC work mt will be looking for the overs on top rating and anything over $6 for second rating if it is strong overs in your market

[Oaksnaf]

I will try and get $12 for race 3 #1 and also $8 for your top rating. Might be a night with only 1 or 2 bets.

[Oaksnaf]

Beautiful work mt. I figured if your top ratings salute 30% of.the time then all you need is $3.30 winners to break even. You rated it at $5.60 so I put $20 as it was exactly the price I was after. Let's see if we can find a few more nice ones. I also backed the #6 for $5 given it was well over the odds and probably well above the break even point for your 5th rating. Turns out the value saluted.

[Oaksnaf]

For race 4 need 6.50 for top rating and 10 for second. Will need about $20 for anything else in ranks 3-6.

[Oaksnaf]

Race 6 #3 trying to get $20 and for the favourite $2.00