by Dutchy » Fri Jun 22, 2007 1:44 pm
Melbourne - With no real conviction I pick Melbourne in a close one, neither side is setting the world on fire but are much better in the last month, Melbourne losing 3 games in their last 6 by less than a kick, got belted by the Eagles, but then had good wins against Adelaide and Collingwood. They are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 so that shows they are going OK and the opposition they have faced in the past 6 weeks is much better than what Richmond have faced yet they are still to get the W. Richmond however are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 with 3 close losses and a draw. Now Melbourne have broken thru i expect them to break the Tigers soul tonight....Melbourne 1-39
Sydney - These are always close tussles and expect this one to be the same, probably the one game which there could be an upset. Collingwood are going OK but the opposition they have faced in recent weeks is poor - Carlton, Bullies, Brisbane, Freo & Melbourne yet only 3-2 in that period. They meet a determined team that is on the way up. Sydney have beaten final 8 contenders Port and the Bullies convincingly, tripped up against Essendon but got back into that game when they had no right to, but beat the quality Hawks side with a come from behind win, what really impressed me in that game was the way they completely changed the momentum from the Hawks to themselves. Only thing that worries me here is Collingwood are 5-1 at night this year (excluding TD games) and Swans 1-2. This one will be low scoring physical clash....Sydney 1-39 plus will be looking for Total Game score lines (under)
WCE - This could get really ugly for the Saints, they are a team with talent but little direction and confused with the game plan and its execution. last 4 weeks they have averaged 55 points while conceding 94.5 points yet their Inside 50's are around the AFL average. Worse news is ahead when you look at WCE at Subi this year are only conceding 60 points on average in their 6 home games so far, with Collingwood the leading team with 75 in Round 2. WCE are also averging 57 Inside 50's over the last 4 games while conceding 44. Gerhig is out which also doesnt help. Im expecting a big win here, one team that will appreciate the break is the WCE who have travelled 4 of the last 6 weeks....WCE -34.5