94% market on Showdown last night

[Dutchy]

This is what happened last night between the TAB and SPortsbet you could get a 94% market on the total game score as TAB adjusted theirs cause of the weather but SPortsbet didnt -

There are some huge differences in markets across the 2 bookies that offer total game score lines, dont know if they are hugely popular therefore the books dont monitor the prices as much but this is what happened last night -

TAB open the score at 180.5 under/over @ $1.85 each

I took the under for more than I usually bet knowing I could save, I then looked at 181-190 which was $6.50 and 190-200 ($7.50) & 201-210 ($8-00), whacked in into a spreadsheet to work out the permutations etc...weather was getting worse during the arvo so decided to hold off and see is the prices change, they did and the under 180.5 came into $1.55 on the TAB (they closed this market 1/2 hour before the game) and the 181-190 went out to $9-00 191-200 $11-00 & 200-210 $13-00 which allowed me to lay off on these confident the score wasnt going to go over 210 and improve my profit on the under should it hit....the rest was history BUT just before the bounce I noticed Sportsbet hadnt changed their market all day and still had <150 points at $5.50 (TAB bought this into $2.70) and 150-160 @ $9-00, so I had more on these options....

anyway between the 2 bookies you could have got this market 1/2 before the bounce if you merged the best odds from both -

<150........$5.50 (S/BET)
151-160....$9-00 (S/BET)
161-170....$8-00 (S/BET)
171-180....$7-00 (S/BET)
181-190....$9-00 (TAB)
191-200....$11-00(TAB)
201-210....$13-00(TAB)
211-220....$17-00(TAB)
220+........$25-00(TAB)

which if my calculations are correct is a 94% market, you cant lose if you back all options, I massaged it so I made big profits under 190 and small losses if it went above, but could have made it a small profit if I backed them all...

SOme days you can beat the bookies, not matter what the result!!!!

[another grub]

Great punting dutchy.... I know a few of my mates who couldnt beleive $5.50 was left up for so long given the defensive tactics mentioned before the game.... they laughed all night as they cleaned up!!!!! I think Sportsbet would have lost a packet......

[Ecky]

Great work Dutchy!

Further proof that gambling is not a risky way to invest money if you are smart and wait for the right opportunities to pounce.

My advice to all members of the gambling room - if you aren't confident about a bet, don't bet at all or only put a couple dollars on just so you have an interest in it. This probably indicates that the bookies have got the odds right and the odds are against you.
But when you see the bookies make an obvious stuffup, don't be afraid to bet BIG and you will reap the rewards.

[Dutchy]

good thoughts Ecky, sometimes not betting is best decision, be patient and wait for the next opportunity with your untouched bank roll at the ready!

[Aerie]

It's been interesting reading the punting stories on this forum. I've only ever really bet on the Melbourne Cup before, but after Dutchy started up the punting competition I got some interest and opened up a sportsbet account with $20 (yes, I am a tight-arse). Having had some family history of bad gambling problems and being drilled by Mum never to bet, I decided I'd spend $20 for the fun of it and not put any more in for the season. Have kept it going so far to have it up to $60 and depending whether West Coast beat Freo, it will go up to close to $90. Have decided once it gets to $100, I'll withdraw $50 and keep on going. Have only bet on the SANFL and AFL. All good fun and for me a low risk way of keeping the games interesting.

[Dutchy]

It's been interesting reading the punting stories on this forum. I've only ever really bet on the Melbourne Cup before, but after Dutchy started up the punting competition I got some interest and opened up a sportsbet account with $20 (yes, I am a tight-arse). Having had some family history of bad gambling problems and being drilled by Mum never to bet, I decided I'd spend $20 for the fun of it and not put any more in for the season. Have kept it going so far to have it up to $60 and depending whether West Coast beat Freo, it will go up to close to $90. Have decided once it gets to $100, I'll withdraw $50 and keep on going. Have only bet on the SANFL and AFL. All good fun and for me a low risk way of keeping the games interesting.

Good work Aerie...just keep it fun and you'll be fine, only 1-2% of punters actually make money out of it gambling, luckily we have a higher % of that on here!...to be honest while the money is nice its the challenge that enthralls me...

[Ecky]

Good work Aerie...just keep it fun and you'll be fine, only 1-2% of punters actually make money out of it gambling, luckily we have a higher % of that on here!...to be honest while the money is nice its the challenge that enthralls me...

I agree Dutchy - I get a bigger thrill from outsmarting a bookie and winning $2, than I do from winning $100 from a lucky bet.

The number one rule is to always keep it fun and bet within your limits - if you know it is going to make you upset about it for more than a couple minutes if you lose the money you just put on, you shouldn't have put it on in the first place.

[G]

THRILLS be F**ked !
Money talks all languages and winners are grinners.

If you're not serious about punting, go and take an Any2 or play Keno.

[Dutchy]

THRILLS be F**ked !
Money talks all languages and winners are grinners.

If you're not serious about punting, go and take an Any2 or play Keno.

No one said we aint grinning G....I heard PUNITAB are bringing in quaddies but with the small pools surely it aint going to be ny better than NSW or VIC?

[Grahaml]

Excellent point Ecky. Sometimes I fear that people who don't understand gambling may look at these pages and think it's easy. I hope they realise it's not, and that while some here might make money (or at least say they do, but nobody would lie about that here would they?) they do it through research and knowledge and to make a lot of money takes a lot of hard work. I was fortunate to have an uncle who has been a pro punter for several years to educate me about the real risks of gambling and for that I will be eternally grateful. He actually offered me the opportunity to mirror his bets on Unitab while he was on Supertab (or vice versa, can't remember which) but it was his warnings of not gambling that saw me err on the side of caution and turn it down. $1000 a week on average he apparently was making over the course of years. Would have been nice, but......

[mighty_tiger_79]

THRILLS be F**ked !
Money talks all languages and winners are grinners.

If you're not serious about punting, go and take an Any2 or play Keno.

obviously our illustrious MAL is not serious about punting because he punts into the pools that are the ANY 2

[Dutchy]

I hope they realise it's not, and that while some here might make money (or at least say they do, but nobody would lie about that here would they?)

Good post Graham, exactly why I encourage more people to keep punting records on here to confirm that you actually do win (e.g. my footy thread) keeping records of your punting is a great way to face reality of your punting pursuits, one nice winner can be quickly offset against many small losses and unless you see it on paper you may still think your winning...

[Grahaml]

Most of the guys here post their winners and losers and bets before they pay off, and good on those who do. Anyone out there who doesn't understand how hard it is would just need to look at Mal's million dollar thingo to see how much research goes into it. If you got those dogs and horses at actual prices instead of the paper guestimates he'd have a few thousand not a few hundred thousand at a guess. I know my uncle has gone backwards $20'000 before getting things back on track a few times.

Sorry if this seems obvious to everyone but there are so many people out there who aren't educated about gambling that I would like to think we help the problem a little here and don't perpetuate it. If you ever doubt how dumb people are when it comes to gambling watch deal or no deal and see people gamble $10000-$50000 on a complete guess with no hope of ever getting thayt chance again in their lives.

[mal]

There are certain types of gamblers
recreational[punt for a good time irrespective of wins or loses]
compulsive gamblers[generally losers]
semi to full professional [winners and grinners]



there are some very shrewd gamblers who do win

off all the people i know on this site I would say ECKY is the best punter.

[Ecky]

off all the people i know on this site I would say ECKY is the best punter.

I definitely don't feel like a good punter at the moment, after being confident that the Port/South game was an even-money game last week!

[mal]

off all the people i know on this site I would say ECKY is the best punter.

I definitely don't feel like a good punter at the moment, after being confident that the Port/South game was an even-money game last week!

A modest post from our ECKYSTEIN