AFL+SANFL RD 19 DISCUSSION

[mal]

Good to see MAL grabbing the bull by the horns and going out on a limb by predicting Centrals will bounce back against South at home.

G
$1-40 was bet PP V CA last round
Anything is possible CD V SA

[Dutchy]

ROUND 19

This round we saw 6 favourites win and 5 of them cover the line. The two outsiders that won (Richmond and Melbourne) were both well support in the market and shortened during the week. Port Adelaide was the only favourite not to cover the line. It looks like Mark Harvey and Brett Ratten have secured the coaching jobs at Fremantle and Carlton for next year and Geelong has confirmed it’s the side to beat for the 2007 Premiership. West Coast looks to be vulnerable with Judd carrying an injury and Embley doing a hamstring in the game against the Kangaroos.



Richmond v Collingwood

The Tigers opened Round 19 with their 2nd win of the year. Richmond opened at 7.00 and there was smart money around for them all week that saw them start at 6.00. Collingwood drifted from 1.12 to 1.18 at game time. The biggest losing bet on Collingwood was 15k @ 1.18; this was offset with a 10k on Richmond @ +33.5 @ 1.92. Most of the bigger multies included Collingwood so a Richmond win got the Bookies off to a winning start on Friday night.



Hawthorn v Brisbane

Good support for Brisbane on game day saw them shorten from 2.10 to 2.00 and the Hawks drifted from 1.80 to 1.88. We managed to lay some good bets for both sides in this game. The winning bets on the Hawks included 5K @ 1.88 and 4k @ 1.85. This was offset by a losing bet of 12k on Brisbane @ 2.05.



Port Adelaide v Carlton

We found it hard to attract much interest in this game due to the potential tanking of the Blues. When the Power lead by 37 points at half time it look all over for the Blues but a spirited 3rd quarter of 8 goals to 1 saw the Blues hit the lead at 3/4 time by 3 points. When they realised they might win they only kicked 2 goals to Ports 6 in the last quarter to keep the supports happy and Ratten looks certain to get the Coaching job for next year.



Melbourne v Western Bulldogs

The wheels seem to have fallen off for the Bulldogs. Brad Johnson was never going to play but we have discussed late changes here before so those in the know took the 4.25 the Bookies offered early in the week. We found it hard to attract much interest in this game. We kept on pushing the Dogs out in the market all week and they finally started at 1.36, but we still found them hard to lay. Melbourne produced their best form in a month, but I suspect it was the Bulldogs terrible form that saw Melbourne win on Jeff White’s 250th. Can they repeat the performance for Neitz’s 300th next week against Collingwood?



Sydney v St Kilda

We gave St Kilda a real chance in this game particularly when Leo Barry and Robert Thompson-Lewis were late withdrawals. The Swans opened at 1.40 and drifter to 1.48 by game time. Not a lot of action at Domebet on this game but we did manage to lay 3k @ 1.48 on the Swans plus a number of bets on St Kilda at +14.5 so the final margin of 17 did help Domebet produce a small profit on the game. Those who took +17.5 following the AFL Guru would have been pleased when the Swans rushed a late behind for the Saints to reduce the margin to 17 points.



Kangaroos v West Coast Eagles

Rumours all week around the fitness of Judd with some suggesting he would not play saw solid support for the Kangaroos at the line at Domebet. We laid a bet of 7k @ +9.5 @ 1.92 and the same punter backed up with another 7k @ +8.5 @ 1.92. Then on Sunday morning we laid a further 2.2k @ +7.5 @ 1.92 on the Kangaroos. They were all betting that Judd was injured and they were right. He played the whole game in the forward line and looked to be struggling, the early loss of Embley with a hamstring got me a little worried but the Eagles finally were to strong winning by 17 points helping Domebet to a nice win on the game.



Geelong v Adelaide

Geelong continues to impress and are now clear 2.60 Premiership favourites at Domebet. During the week on the news that Rutten and Bock would play saw some good money for the Crows including 8k @ 4.50. We did lay some big multies through Geelong 1-39 so we were desperate for the Cats to win 40+, so the final margin of 33 points was not our best result.



Fremantle v Essendon

The last match of the round with the favourite winning and covering the line is never good for bookies and this result was no different. All the multies anchored Fremantle plus we laid 5k and 3.5k on Dockers @ -31.5 @ 1.92. Fortunately we did manage to lay 3k on Essendon @ 5.00. The final margin of 63 points tipped out a few of the multies that took Fremantle 1-39 but overall a losing game at Domebet.

[bayman]

Early mail for next week- Glenelg WILL NOT WIN!

OR THEY WONT LOSE EITHER

[bayman]

Dr Dutchy tried to talk both Mal (Centrals) and you (Port) from backing them!!!

anyway Im sure your not too disappointed, I would have paid for yesterdays result anyway!

DR DUTCHY INDEED !!, its more like PROFESSOR DUTCHY