Who's going to Sneak into the 5 now?

[am Bays]

Very interesting now with Port having a much easier run home than the Bays, by my calculations it could come down to percentage unless the Bays beat a Sturt, North or Eagles.
The Bays need to beat one side higher on the ladder than them and they will be there for the first time since 1999!

Bottom line if we lose our next three and Port don't we don't deserve to be in the finals pure and simple....

However I'm confident if we play with the same intensity and workrate we showed yesterday yesterday we will winat least one game...

Best thing is the ball is in our court we'll play finals if we want to...

[SnappyTom]

Very interesting now with Port having a much easier run home than the Bays, by my calculations it could come down to percentage unless the Bays beat a Sturt, North or Eagles.
The Bays need to beat one side higher on the ladder than them and they will be there for the first time since 1999!

Bottom line if we lose our next three and Port don't we don't deserve to be in the finals pure and simple....

However I'm confident if we play with the same intensity and workrate we showed yesterday yesterday we will winat least one game...

Best thing is the ball is in our court we'll play finals if we want to...

And Port, who have won 6 from 17, are magically going to win 3 from 3 and make it.
Pfffft...

Bays deserve to be there, after the weekend's win!

[MST]

And Port, who have won 6 from 17, are magically going to win 3 from 3 and make it.
Pfffft...

Bays deserve to be there, after the weekend's win!

ST has hit the nail on the head.

Sturt will finish Port's season next week at Alberton.

[Wedgie]

Updates anyone?

Its going to turn out to be a huge run in into the finals IMHO as I have it ending up the following way:

1 Central 18 wins
2 North 13.5 wins
3 Sturt 13 wins
4 Eagles 13 wins
5 Glenelg 8.5 wins
6 Port 8 wins
7 Norwood 8 wins
8 South 4.5 wins
9 West 3 wins

Having said that if Sturt beat North in the last minor round it would be:

1 Central 18 wins
2 Sturt 14 wins
3 Eagles 13 wins
4 North 12.5 wins
5 Glenelg 8.5 wins
6 Port 8 wins
7 Norwood 8 wins
8 South 4.5 wins
9 West 3 wins

Its going to be bloody interesting to say the least!

[Aerie]

As well if Glenelg lose to Sturt, North and the Eagles, which is possible given they'll go in underdogs for each game, and Norwood beat 2 of Port, Central and South, Norwood will steal 5th spot!

It's looking unlikely the Eagles will catch Sturt's percentage now. Approx 155 points to make up plus Sturt would need to lose two more games and Eagles win all of them. Eagles really need to smash West and South in the next fortnight. Best chance for the Eagles to get a top 3 spot is if North lose another game.

[Wedgie]

As well if Glenelg lose to Sturt, North and the Eagles, which is possible given they'll go in underdogs for each game, and Norwood beat 2 of Port, Central and South, Norwood will steal 5th spot!

It's looking unlikely the Eagles will catch Sturt's percentage now. Approx 155 points to make up plus Sturt would need to lose two more games and Eagles win all of them. Eagles really need to smash West and South in the next fortnight. Best chance for the Eagles to get a top 3 spot is if North lose another game.

Good point about Norwood as I hadn't even taken that into account.
If they just lose to Port the loss of Steve Bailey could cost them a finals berth!

[mighty_tiger_79]

i think Norwood can beat POrt and South but wont beat centrals

i believe that we are good enough to win our remaining 3 games if we can put 4 strong quarters together and then other teams dont come into it.

on the otherhand ive seen how bad we can play and our bad is very very ordinary, but that is behind us now, we will go into the finals with 4 straight wins and we will cause some damage......

[mighty_tiger_79]

thats my prediction

1 Central 20 18 2 0 1909 1172 36 61
2 Eagles 20 13 7 0 1526 1452 26 51
3 Sturt 20 13 7 0 1559 1371 26 53
4 North 20 12 7 1 1543 1326 25 53
5 Glenelg 20 9 10 1 1686 1523 19 52
6 Norwood 20 9 11 0 1403 1625 18 46
7 Port 20 6 13 1 1594 1553 13 50
8 South 20 4 15 1 1336 1952 9 40
9 West 20 4 16 0 1232 1814 8 40

[Wedgie]

thats my prediction

1 Central 20 18 2 0 1909 1172 36 61
2 Eagles 20 13 7 0 1526 1452 26 51
3 Sturt 20 13 7 0 1559 1371 26 53
4 North 20 12 7 1 1543 1326 25 53
5 Glenelg 20 9 10 1 1686 1523 19 52
6 Norwood 20 9 11 0 1403 1625 18 46
7 Port 20 6 13 1 1594 1553 13 50
8 South 20 4 15 1 1336 1952 9 40
9 West 20 4 16 0 1232 1814 8 40

You predict the Eagles to be 2nd despite being level on points with Sturt and having a lower percentage?

[mighty_tiger_79]

thats my prediction

1 Central 20 18 2 0 1909 1172 36 61
2 Eagles 20 13 7 0 1526 1452 26 51
3 Sturt 20 13 7 0 1559 1371 26 53
4 North 20 12 7 1 1543 1326 25 53
5 Glenelg 20 9 10 1 1686 1523 19 52
6 Norwood 20 9 11 0 1403 1625 18 46
7 Port 20 6 13 1 1594 1553 13 50
8 South 20 4 15 1 1336 1952 9 40
9 West 20 4 16 0 1232 1814 8 40

You predict the Eagles to be 2nd despite being level on points with Sturt and having a lower percentage?

thats how the footy calculator worked it out!!!!

[Rucciangelo]

Looks like the Eagles will win their last 3 making it 5 from 5.
North needed to win yesterday but didn't, will only have two more wins.
I see Sturt winning our last 3 with great faith.
Glenelg won't win again as they face North, Sturt and the Eagles.
So my fifth team will be Norwood by one game point.
Their run home is against Port, Centrals & South.

So after Round 23 the top 5 should look like this.

Ladder After Round 23
.......TEAM.................P.....W...L...D...B....Pts
1.....Central District...20...17...3...0....3....34
2......Sturt......................20...15...5...0....3....30
3.....Eagles...............20....13...7...0....3....26
4.....North Adelaide...20....12...7...1....3....25
5.....Norwood............20.....9..11...0....3....18

[stampy]

see you on snouts hill in r22 rucci! you sturt people never learn do you?

[Rucciangelo]

I'll be there Stampy.
Be looking forward to the payback from the Adelaide Oval belting you gave us!

[PhilH]

For 5th place

For Glenelg to finish ahead of Norwood
- need at least 2 of the following 6 results to occur

Rd 21 - Glenelg d North
Rd 21 - Port d Norwood

Rd 22 - Glenelg d Sturt
Rd 22 - Central d Norwood

Rd 23 - Glenelg d Eagles
Rd 23 - South d Norwood

For Norwood to overtake Glenelg
- need at least 5 of the following 6 results to occur

Rd 21 - North d Glenelg
Rd 21 - Norwood d Port

Rd 22 - Sturt d Glenelg
Rd 22 - Norwood d Central

Rd 23 - Eagles d Glenelg
Rd 23 - Norwood d South


--------------------------------------------------------

For the Magpies to overtake Glenelg

ALL FIVE of the following five results must occur

Rd 21 - Port d Norwood
- North d Glenelg

Rd 22 - Sturt d Glenelg

Rd 23 - Port d West
- Eagles d Glenelg

Also Magpies need to Make up approx 150-170 points over the five results in for & against to equal percentage

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

So this weekend;

- Magpies will be eliminated with
- a draw or loss to Norwood
OR Glenelg win over North

- Norwood will be eliminated with
- a loss to Port
AND Glenelg win over North.

- Glenelg will qualify for its first finals since 1999 on Saturday if
- Glenelg d North
AND Port d Norwood.

[PhilH]

For the Double Chance it's a lot more complicated

Currently 4 teams still mathematically in the running for 2 spots.
- Sturt 24pts, 3 games left, Pct 53.58
- North 21pts, 3 games left, Pct 53.49
- Eagles 20pts, 3 games left, Pct 51.12
- Glenelg 17pts, 3 games left, Pct 52.53

Current "Magic Number" of premiership points to secure double chance is "27"

8 remaining games will decide the double chance.

Rd 21
- North v Glenelg
- Eagles v West
- Sturt v Central

Rd 22
- North v West
- Eagles v South
- Sturt v Glenelg

Rd 23
- Eagles v Glenelg
- North v Sturt

Glenelg's chances are pretty thin given they would have to
- win all three games
and
- rely on Eagles losing to either West or South
and
- rely on North losing to West and Sturt
or
north losing to either West or Sturt and the Glenelg making up 0.96 in percentage,

Eagles have a few connotations to make it.
OPTION ONE
- Eagles win last three
and
- North lose at least once
or Sturt lose twice and Eagles make up 1.05%
OPTION TWO
- Eagles win two of last three
and
- North lose twice
or Sturt lose all last three and Eagles make up 1.05%
OPTION THREE
- Eagles win one of last three
and
- North lose all three
and
- Glenelg lose one of last three



North - will finish top three if they win all of last three, regardless of other results.

Sturt - will finish top three if they win at least two of last three, regardless of other results


Double chance will NOT be finalised this weekend.
however
- Sturt can qualify with a win over Central AND an Eagles loss to West
- Glenelg will eliminated with a loss to North.

[spell_check]

Well done on that review Phil, I think it makes things interesting with all the subplots that the race to the finals bring.

[StrayDog]

For the Double Chance it's a lot more complicated

Currently 4 teams still mathematically in the running for 2 spots.
- Sturt 24pts, 3 games left, Pct 53.58
- North 21pts, 3 games left, Pct 53.49
- Eagles 20pts, 3 games left, Pct 51.12
- Glenelg 17pts, 3 games left, Pct 52.53

............

Eagles have a few connotations to make it.
OPTION ONE
- Eagles win last three
and
- North lose at least once
or Sturt lose twice and Eagles make up 1.05%
OPTION TWO
- Eagles win two of last three
and
- North lose twice
or Sturt lose all last three and Eagles make up 1.05%
OPTION THREE
........

Thanks for that Phil, good work.

Just a picky point, though. It appears as though that 1.05% (around 10 to 11 goals) refers to Glenelg's gap on Sturt. The Eagles gap on Sturt is (currently) close to 28 goals.

[mighty_tiger_79]

IM GOING TO have to print his page out when i go to the footy on sat, just in case things are going horribly wrong at prospect...........i know what the best options are after that

[Rucciangelo]

Looks like the Eagles will win their last 3 making it 5 from 5.
North needed to win yesterday but didn't, will only have two more wins.
I see Sturt winning our last 3 with great faith.
Glenelg won't win again as they face North, Sturt and the Eagles.
So my fifth team will be Norwood by one game point.
Their run home is against Port, Centrals & South.

So after Round 23 the top 5 should look like this.

Ladder After Round 23
.......TEAM.................P.....W...L...D...B....Pts
1.....Central District...20...17...3...0....3....34
2......Sturt......................20...15...5...0....3....30
3.....Eagles...............20....13...7...0....3....26
4.....North Adelaide...20....12...7...1....3....25
5.....Norwood............20.....9..11...0....3....18

OK, I was wrong Mark Williams!
Was listening to the game on the way home from the pub, it was half time and the Bays were belting the Rooster!
So I said to my son let's go and see the last half. Glenelg wanted in way more than North, forced plenty of errors and out ran and out skilled the "Chooks", in fact North were soft! The North supporters were turning on their own and gave plenty to Perrie.
Anyhow back on track, congratulations to Glenelg for making the 5 with todays win, after Port closed the door for Norwood.
From here I predict that the Bays will go further into the finals series than North after today's performance.

[Stevie_K]

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