Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

[mighty_tiger_79]

Quick look at the fields and without doing the detailed form i immediately ruled out the internationals who havent raced here this campaign.

Ive been left with
3-5-7-13--13-19-23-24

3- Humidor - been around the mark its last few starts.
5- marmelo - close up in the Caulfield Cup
7 johannes vermeer - Another from the caulfield cup
13 - big duke. Got him at $41 before winning the St Ledger at Randwick. Happy to forgive last start. Will run top 5.
19 single gaze - another from caulfield cup. Been a fan of this horse for a long time
23 Amelies Star - prior to its laat effort it has been around the mark.
24 - cismontane - havent seen yesterdays win. But has form around Big Duke and will be pushing forward from 17.

[gadj1976]

US Army Ranger will win the Melbourne Cup.

Above posted on 11 Sept 2016. Was I a year too early? Maybe!

I actually like Rekindling.

[Booney]

23 Amelies Star - prior to its laat effort it has been around the mark.

I keep coming back to this one and I'm not sure why, which makes my reasoning fairly flawed.

[OnSong]

I quite like the run of Humidor in the Cox Plate against the mighty Winx.

Another 800m will be the test but felt it had more to give, if the pace suits I can see it motoring late.

Anything that rivals the best horse in the world has to be a live hope.

[JK]

I quite like the run of Humidor in the Cox Plate against the mighty Winx.

Another 800m will be the test but felt it had more to give, if the pace suits I can see it motoring late.

Anything that rivals the best horse in the world has to be a live hope.

Should be better suited to Flemington I reckon and has distance in its bloodlines, but still a query at the trip til it's proven I guess.

Looks such an open affair this year, need to put aside a fair bit of time for study tonight.

[JK]

US Army Ranger will win the Melbourne Cup.

Above posted on 11 Sept 2016. Was I a year too early? Maybe!

I actually like Rekindling.

I've got Rekindling in a sweep so wouldn't be upset if you're right

[OnSong]

Yeah, I think we can get carried away with the study a bit.

Some of the overseas runners have distance form but able to do it on their terms in small fields.

So many variables at play, got to put my money on quality and hope it rises.

Shinn in great form too, I feel comfortable taking double figures for it.

[Jimmy_041]

Yeah, I think we can get carried away with the study a bit.

Some of the overseas runners have distance form but able to do it on their terms in small fields.

So many variables at play, got to put my money on quality and hope it rises.

Shinn in great form too, I feel comfortable taking double figures for it.

Going to have to run hard to beat the horses

[Jimmy_041]

07/11/2017 – Melbourne Cup Preview only (Posted: 11:50am Sunday 05/11/2017 )

Thought I would do the Cup today, then see if I can’t get some others late Monday night or early Tuesday to add. Good Day Saturday (how was Zahra's ride on Merchant Navy??? GOLD!) & a few $$$ to give back to the Bookies on Cup Day.

Each year I wade through the Form Guide trying to find the winner & each year (more often than not) I end up collecting on the race but because I’ve outlaid way too much on the Exotics, I end up losing on the race! Last year I backed the winner Almandin the Place, but lost on the race. I did win on the Day, but only mainly due to a Snowden filly, late on the Card. I usually spend way too much time & energy trawling through the Form Guide & trying in vain to assess the Form Lines of the overseas runners.

I am beginning to come around to the thoughts of ‘The Cups King’ & wanting the Cup to be for Australian & NZ horses only. It seems to be losing its appeal & as far as a punting proposition gets harder & harder to be successful at. But being the compulsive gambler that I am, I can’t resist continuing to try & ‘crack’ a big dividend – but 1 Trifecta collect in 35 years doesn’t suggest I know much about it, but I will always have fond memories of my 39th Birthday & cheering Shocking & Crime Scene down the Flemington straight in 2009.

Speaking of past history.
Only 2 winners of the race have been 8 year olds – the last was ‘Catalogue’ in 1938. That statistic alone is significant when trying to find the Winner of the race. Only 11 (including Almandin last year) 7 year olds have won the race, 4 since What a Nuisance in 1985 – Rogan Josh 1999, Makybe’s 3rd in 2005, Almandin & Vintage Crop 1993.

Since 2000 (Brew) 6 year olds have been the most successful, winning 9 Cups (only 29 in total). 5 year olds have a total of 47 winners (only 3 since Kingston Rule in 1990 – one of which was the Mare’s 1st in 2003, the last was Protectionist in 2014). 4 year olds have won 44 Cups (6 since Let’s Elope in 1991), the last being Shocking in 2009. 3 year olds have won
23 Cups but there are none in this year’s race, although Rekindling is an English 3 yr old.

What does all of this mean, I hear you ask?
Well, I think it is important to recognise historical factors when trying to wade through 24 runners & find a winner. These statistics (& they are only that, statistics) I think are relevant, as I am prepared to rule out all the 8 year olds in the field from winning the race. That means the following Numbers are out: 2 Almandin, 9 Max Dynamite, 11 Who Shot the Barman, 12 Wicklow Brave, 21 Thomas Hobson. This at least brings the field down to 19 contenders as a WINNING chance. With the statistics since 1985, I’m happy to remove the 7 year olds as well because I’m taking the Punt that last year was the ‘odd’ 7 year old winner. That means we can remove: 1 Hartnell, 16 Gallante, 17 Libran, 18 Nakeeta (although I am reluctant to remove him because of his Ebor win, but you can’t have them all).
Now we are down to 15 possible Winners – hard, isn’t it??? Just so you know; Box 15 Trifecta will cost you $2370 for 50% of the dividend!!!

So now we’ve used the Age as an ‘eliminator’, we can move to weights. Since Kingston Rule in 1990, the weight carried by the winner of the Race has ranged between; Brew carring 49kgs in 2000, 51kgs (Lets Elope 1991, Shocking 2009) to 58 kgs (Makybe Diva 2005). Of those, 16 of 27 have carried between 53kgs & 55.5kgs. The weights are so compressed this year, that this isn’t a suitable consideration, except perhaps removing 3 Humidor from winning calculations.

So, if weight isn’t a consideration, we have to now look at DISTANCE performances. Personally, apart from Age, I think this is THE most important consideration. There are a couple of considerations; (1) won at 2400m+, (2) placed 2400m+ in any of last 5 starts. Remove: 3, 7, 10, 19 – now down to a more manageable 11 runners.
That leaves: 4,5,6,8,13,14,15,20,22,23,24

The final ‘elimination process’ is Pre-post Price.
The last 20 years have the following results:
7/2; 6/1; 5/1; 14/1; 9/1; 11/2; 7/1; 5/2; 45/10; 18/1; 17/1; 40/1; 9/1; 12/1; 8/1; 18/1; 7/1; 7/1; 100/1; 10/1 … this suggests that only 15% of winners in the past 20 years have been priced above $15 & that 60% of winners have been 10/1 or shorter!
Of the remaining runners left in the Field (@ Midday Sunday prior to the Race), it leaves us with ONLY Marmelo under 10/1 & leaves us with Wall of Fire & Rekindling under $15.

Looking at the Jockeys for these 3 runners, we find that they are all Australian which is a BIG plus. Rekindling probably has the best Gate of the 3 runners, Marmelo’s ‘slashing run in the Caulfield Cup gives it the ‘form advantage’ & Wall of Fire has had the one ‘lead-up run’ & drops 5kgs from that 2nd in the Herbert Power. I will be backing ALL 3 Horses in the Race, Win & Place & I will have a little something on The Ebor winner Nakeeta.

Trifecta: 5, 20, 22/ 2, 5, 7, 9, 13, 18, 20, 22, 23/ Field (for 20%) $106
Box Trifecta: 2, 5, 18, 20, 21, 22 (for 30%) $36

Pick 4: 5, 20, 22/ 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 13, 18, 20, 22/ 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 13, 18, 20, 22/ 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 13, 18, 20, 22 (for 3%) $31
Box Pick 4: 2, 5, 9, 13, 20, 22 (for 5%) $18

Hope this gives you blokes something extra to ponder upon as you try in vain (like me) to find that elusive BIG pay out. I will assess the rest of the Card & add any thoughts when I get a chance. Happy Punting …

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/sport/sup ... c70c5901a4

I backed him last night and got 12/1 boosted LPH
Thanks again for the preview - ripping stuff

[helicopterking]

Time to bounce back. Shocking day on Sat, Going to go wide with some exotics(Ex,Tri,F4)put them on early, try get a collect. Drinks for the day, enjoy the entertainment. * my only win/place bets.
Good Luck gents
R1-1,2,8,7,5
R2-3,5,8,9,10
R3- 1,3*,9,6,8
R4- 2,3*,4,1,11
R5- 1,5,9,4,2
R6- 1,2,4,9,12
R7- 2*,3,5,9,22,23
R8- 4,5,9*,12,19
R9- 3,6,16,15,18
R10- 1,3,6,10,11

[mighty_tiger_79]

Just had a look at my quick picks yesty

Just like Big Duke even moreso now.

Close up last time.
Didnt get a run.
Should be sitting in the front half of the field. Avdulla is in good form.

Top 10 at $2 just looks a gift.

[mighty_tiger_79]

Cup Day fillups

R2-3
R5-5
R6-3
R7-13
R9-16

[Sheik Yerbouti]

I quite like the run of Humidor in the Cox Plate against the mighty Winx.

Another 800m will be the test but felt it had more to give, if the pace suits I can see it motoring late.

Anything that rivals the best horse in the world has to be a live hope.

Same, getting smashed by the pundits & drifting pricewise, leave out backing him untill latish tomorrow with a boost.

[LaughingKookaburra]

I quite like the run of Humidor in the Cox Plate against the mighty Winx.

Another 800m will be the test but felt it had more to give, if the pace suits I can see it motoring late.

Anything that rivals the best horse in the world has to be a live hope.

So You Think was the best horse in the World after winning the 2010 Cox Plate and Americain smashed it (What a horse!). Melbourne Cup Day brings up a lot of surprises. Reckon it needs bigger prize money though now the Everest has come on board.

I'll go Big Duke.

[OnSong]

I quite like the run of Humidor in the Cox Plate against the mighty Winx.

Another 800m will be the test but felt it had more to give, if the pace suits I can see it motoring late.

Anything that rivals the best horse in the world has to be a live hope.

So You Think was the best horse in the World after winning the 2010 Cox Plate and Americain smashed it (What a horse!). Melbourne Cup Day brings up a lot of surprises. Reckon it needs bigger prize money though now the Everest has come on board.

I'll go Big Duke.

Green Moon won the Turnbull, got blitzed in the Cox Plate and won the Cup.
There's all sorts of variables and form lines you can follow, I'm just backing class I've seen with my own eyes, but I do respect the distance argument.

I'll be on Balf's Choice in R8 again. 1800m the tester but if it lobs in the spot, it will figure in the finish. Up against Brown Ben which beat it in Tokyo City race of same distance, Kah on board for McEvoy stable, could do worse than back that one at EW odds too.

[LPH]

I am a Humidor Fan, but don't think it will run the trip - in terms of needing to accelerate ('turn of foot') between the 4 & 3 Furlong mark, the SUSTAIN the run. He looked to me to be 'spent' at the 100m in the Cox Plate.

[Spargo]

After suffering the pain of Vengeur Masque missing out by a bees’ dick for a second year running (300/1 last year 750/1 this year) these are my no’s for the Cup ; 1,3,5,6,7,17,18,23 Box tri & First 4

[gadj1976]

Trifecta for myself; 20.9% 4, 5, 6, 7, 18, 20, 22, 23 boxed
Trifecta for my daughter: 1.33x 4, 9 15 boxed
Roughie: 14 $5ew

[OnSong]

I am a Humidor Fan, but don't think it will run the trip - in terms of needing to accelerate ('turn of foot') between the 4 & 3 Furlong mark, the SUSTAIN the run. He looked to me to be 'spent' at the 100m in the Cox Plate.

It's a big question mark, totally agree.
Big field, could get a reasonable cart into the race.
What about the credentials of JV? Barrier 7, well weighted, prime age. Lot of numbers in its favour.

[OnSong]

Anyone got any money left for quaddies? Got a good strategy?