Spring Carnival - Long Term Betting

[Squawk]

To those far more astute than I - is there any value in the Cox Plate, Caulfield Cup, Melbourne Cup markets for those willing to risk a longer term punt?

[the wonder elephant]

where are u thunder down under u are usually good for one of these types of tips mate ????

[Plunge Penguin]

Squawk - last Thursday I backed Blue Monday to win the Cox Plate at $35. English import, rated by Hayes as one of the best they have ever brought over. Finished a sound 5th in its first Austn run last Saturday.

Now into $21. That may be one lead to look at.

Have taken Caul Cup/Melb Cup doublesof
- Efficient/Activation at $1212
- Sky Conqueror/Tosho Knight at $570 (this was prior to the Asian flu issue that has just come out though)

[Booney]

I have looked at Activation too.

Bit early just yet,unless you go on country runs.About 4 weeks time,a couple of early runs on the harder tracks will bring some names in.

[Thunder Down Under]

Squawk I dont believe you can win at that caper as a lot of things can happen to a horse between now and when the starter says go. In some instances a horse is not yet guaranteed a start, let alone be fit and healthy on the day.
What about all those who took the special odds that the TAB was offering recently on the Japanese horses and now they find out about the flu in Japan. Thats another way to do your wager. I don't want to put you off having a go for a small investment but as a keen follower of the sport I can tell you that at this point in time last year very few pundits were talking about the chances of Pop Rock. An unknown can turn up from anywhere. Each week now you will see a horse that puts in a good run shorten on the fixed odds but equally more will drift. I now wait until at least final acceptances and the Barrier draw before I put my hand earned on as for many years I tried but did not succeed. Closest I got was $20,000/$10 Fields of Omagh (CC) into Media Puzzle (MC).......beaten by that much, Northerly spoilt the party, I left it out of all my doubles as the trainer said it would not run in the CC. You see another way to lose your bet !!

[SCD]

Squawk I dont believe you can win at that caper as a lot of things can happen to a horse between now and when the starter says go. In some instances a horse is not yet guaranteed a start, let alone be fit and healthy on the day.
What about all those who took the special odds that the TAB was offering recently on the Japanese horses and now they find out about the flu in Japan. Thats another way to do your wager. I don't want to put you off having a go for a small investment but as a keen follower of the sport I can tell you that at this point in time last year very few pundits were talking about the chances of Pop Rock. An unknown can turn up from anywhere. Each week now you will see a horse that puts in a good run shorten on the fixed odds but equally more will drift. I now wait until at least final acceptances and the Barrier draw before I put my hand earned on as for many years I tried but did not succeed. Closest I got was $20,000/$10 Fields of Omagh (CC) into Media Puzzle (MC).......beaten by that much, Northerly spoilt the party, I left it out of all my doubles as the trainer said it would not run in the CC. You see another way to lose your bet !!

I have actually won quite well on these in the past 3 - 4 years.. (last year was the exception!! - even though I had Tawqeet to win the Caulf Cup @ $41 before he won the Metrop into 6 runners in the cup.... )
BUT I put my bets on some 2 - 3 weeks before the Caulfield Cup at the earliest..
That way you've had a chance to see a bit of spring form and should have a good idea on who will be in / out...
I work on the theory of 7 - 10 horses in each leg for varied stakes to ensure that even if the 2 favs win i get a profit if I get the result.. Now is too early to be betting on them, but it's the right time to be watching and looking for value for later in the spring...

[Squawk]

Cheers all. I wondered if it might be a bit early but just wanting the thinking caps to come out!

Since I'm no where near a big punter I'd rather have a few smaller bets. In past years I usually bet in race lead up but this year I thought I might have a stab at a longer term bet and see what happens.

Reminds me of the time I asked Thornton for odds on Hewitt to win a Grand Slam after he won the Adelaide Hardcourt International. Thornton wouldn't offer me that bet and the rest is history for Hewitt and I.

[the wonder elephant]

an unknown like media puzzle tdu ?
me thinks you are better of backing a few horses u fancy at the post when u know the form than outlaying you cash on something you know nothing about ......
form is everything my friend

[mighty_tiger_79]

Caulfield Cup

CLASSIC DE LAGO. $151.00 $38.50

AG - whats going to happen???? is this worth a punt??

[the wonder elephant]

ran a stinker yesterday

[JK]

I got on Miss Finland at 13's a week or two ago.

[the wonder elephant]

in what race cp i presume the cox plate ..if there was ever a time for her to get beat it would be first up have heard on the grapevine she is not going as well as the papers and media suggest and could be retired if she fails in her first couple of runs this time in ..having said that she is starting of in the same race as foo did last year so maybe the trainer might know best !!

[The Silver Fox]

Squawk I hope you did not take any doubles with horses from Qld or NSW as they will be at a disadvantage now from a fitness perspective.

When they put the markets up again I would suggest you concentrate on Melbourne and the D Hayes based horses.

As I said before there is plenty of water to go under the bridge before the Cups are run.

[Squawk]

Squawk I hope you did not take any doubles with horses from Qld or NSW as they will be at a disadvantage now from a fitness perspective.

When they put the markets up again I would suggest you concentrate on Melbourne and the D Hayes based horses.

As I said before there is plenty of water to go under the bridge before the Cups are run.

Ive taken the advice above and not done a thing yet! Thanks.

[JK]

in what race cp i presume the cox plate ..if there was ever a time for her to get beat it would be first up have heard on the grapevine she is not going as well as the papers and media suggest and could be retired if she fails in her first couple of runs this time in ..having said that she is starting of in the same race as foo did last year so maybe the trainer might know best !!

Yeah I think it was the CP mate ... I did it in a rush at the insistance of a mate who is a much keener and more knowledgable punter on the GG's than I am.

[Plunge Penguin]

First nominations out today, 128 nominated for Melb Cup. Full list as below, apologies for both length and formatting:

EMIRATES MELBOURNE CUP - First Declarations 3200 M
Of $5,000,000 and $100,000 trophies. 1st $3,000,000 and trophies of $80,000 to owner $8,500 to trainer $8,500 to jockey $3,000 to strapper, 2nd $750,000, 3rd $375,000, 4th $200,000, 5th $125,000, 6th $110,000, 7th $110,000, 8th $110,000, 9th $110,000, 10th $110,000. Starter Subsidy: $170 for non-prize earning runners. (GROUP 1). No allowances for apprentices.

No Horse Trainer Ballot Wgt
1 YEATS (IRE) Aidan O'Brien 1 59
2 SCORPION (IRE) Aidan O'Brien 2 58.5
3 SKY CONQUEROR (CAN) Darwin Banach 3 57.5
4 SEPTIMUS (IRE) Aidan O'Brien 4 57
5 TAWQEET (USA) David Hayes 5 56.5
6 BLUE MONDAY (GB) David Hayes 6 55.5
7 BELLAMY CAY (GB) Dermot K Weld 7 55
8 BLUTIGEROO Colin Little 8 55
9 GALLIC (NZ) Graeme Rogerson 9 55
10 RAILINGS Roger James 10 55
11 STAGE GIFT (IRE) Saeed Bin Suroor 11 55
12 BEST ALIBI (IRE) Saeed Bin Suroor 12 54.5
13 FORMAL DECREE (GER) Saeed Bin Suroor 13 54.5
14 OBRIGADO (FR) Neil Drysdale 14 54.5
15 EFFICIENT (NZ) Graeme Rogerson 15 54
16 FALSTAFF (IRE) Lee Freedman 16 53.5
17 ICE CHARIOT Ron Maund 17 53.5
18 MAYBE BETTER Brian Mayfield-Smith 18 53.5
19 MIGHTY (GB) Jane Chapple-Hyam 19 53.5
20 TUNGSTEN STRIKE (USA) Amanda Perrett 20 53.5
21 ZIPPING Graeme Rogerson 21 53.5
22 ACTIVATION (NZ) Dale Sutton 22 53
23 ADMIRAL'S CRUISE (USA) Brian Meehan 23 53
24 BLACK TOM David Hayes 24 53
25 MARSH SIDE (USA) Michael Dickinson 25 53
26 MISS FINLAND David Hayes 26 53
27 PURPLE MOON (IRE) Luca Cumani 27 53
28 TACIT AGREEMENT (USA) Danny O'Brien 28 53
29 KOCAB (GB) Andre Fabre 29 52.5
30 LEICA FALCON Richard Freyer 30 52.5
31 CINQUE CENTO Peter G Moody 31 52
32 KING OF ASHFORD (NZ) Lee Freedman 32 52
33 LAZER SHARP David Hayes 33 52
34 MANDELA (NZ) Richard Yuill 34 52
35 ON A JEUNE Peter Montgomerie 35 52
36 SCENIC SHOT Daniel Morton 36 52
37 SOULACROIX (GB) Lee Freedman 37 52
38 MALDIVIAN (NZ) Mark Kavanagh 38 51.5
39 SARRERA Michael Moroney 39 51.5
40 TESTAFIABLE David Kelly 40 51.5
41 ANAMATO David Hayes 41 51
42 ANNENKOV (IRE) Peter G Moody 42 51
43 BOOK OF MUSIC (IRE) Saeed Bin Suroor 43 51
44 CRIME SCENE (IRE) Saeed Bin Suroor 44 51
45 DRACS BACK Darren Weir 45 51
46 EXPUNGE Mick Price 46 51
47 NEW KID IN TOWN (NZ) Lee Freedman 47 51
48 RESPECT (NZ) Paul Cave 48 51
49 SIRMIONE Bart Cummings 49 51
50 DOURO VALLEY Danny O'Brien 50 50.5
51 ESKIMO QUEEN (NZ) Michael Moroney 51 50.5
52 LACHLAN RIVER (NZ) John Morrisey 52 50.5
53 LILAKYN (NZ) Guy Lowry 53 50.5
54 METTRE EN JEU (NZ) Lee Freedman 54 50.5
55 MUDAWIN (IRE) Jane Chapple-Hyam 55 50.5
56 PRINCESS COUP Mark Walker 56 50.5
57 RENA'S LADY Gary Portelli 57 50.5
58 SCULPTOR (NZ) Peter Mckenzie 58 50.5
59 TUBULAR BELLS Andrew J Payne 59 50.5
60 UTILITY (NZ) Pat Carey 60 50.5
61 VIZ VITAE (NZ) David Hayes 61 50.5
62 ALL THE GOOD (IRE) Gerard Butler 62 50
63 ANNA JOY (NZ) Peter G Moody 63 50
64 ASSENT Graeme Rogerson 64 50
65 BARLINNIE (NZ) Peter G Moody 65 50
66 BAUER (IRE) Luca Cumani 66 50
67 BAY STORY (USA) Brian Ellison 67 50
68 BLESSED (NZ) Peter G Moody 68 50
69 BUGATTI ROYALE (USA) Peter Morgan 69 50
70 CANCANELLE Robbie Griffiths 70 50
71 CARNEGIE DANCER (NZ) Bruce Wallace 71 50
72 CEFALU (CHI) Lee Freedman 72 50
73 CHINA CAUSEWAY Michael Kent 73 50
74 CHOLULA (NZ) Brian Mayfield-Smith 74 50
75 CLASSIC DE LAGO David Hayes 75 50
76 COMPLETION (NZ) Graeme Rogerson 76 50
77 CONQUISTADOR (NZ) Bruce Wallace 77 50
78 DERRINGER John Salanitri 78 50
79 DESERT MASTER Brian Jenkins 79 50
80 DESERT ONSLAUGHT Nigel Blackiston 80 50
81 DOLPHIN JO Terry & Karina O'Sullivan 81 50
82 EIGHTH ARMY (NZ) Lee Freedman 82 50
83 EL CAZADOR Steve Richards 83 50
84 EMIRATES SKYLINE (USA) Saeed Bin Suroor 84 50
85 FALSETTO (NZ) Mick Price 85 50
86 FERERONOCHE Sue Jaensch 86 50
87 FIRST WORLD Rick Hore-Lacy 87 50
88 GALISTIC (IRE) Patrick J Flynn 88 50
89 IWANTITALL (NZ) Rick Hore-Lacy 89 50
90 KERDEM (IRE) David Hayes 90 50
91 LANCETTIER (ARG) David Hayes 91 50
92 MAGONIUS Lee Freedman 92 50
93 MAHLER (GB) Aidan O'Brien 93 50
94 MASTER O'REILLY (NZ) Danny O'Brien 94 50
95 MASTERCRAFT Leon Corstens 95 50
96 MOJO PIN Brian Mayfield-Smith 96 50
97 MOONLOUSHE (NZ) Peter G Moody 97 50
98 NEW GUINEA (GB) Saeed Bin Suroor 98 50
99 OUR FLYING BEAUTY Bart Cummings 99 50
100 PACINO Clinton McDonald 100 50
101 PALIO ARCHWAY Brendan McCarthy 101 50
102 PENTECOSTER (NZ) Cliff Brown 102 50
103 PHANTOM AGENT Diane Poidevin-Laine 103 50
104 POST THYME (NZ) Lee Freedman 104 50
105 RED LORD Anthony Cummings 105 50
106 ROANOKE Anthony Cummings 106 50
107 SADDLER'S STORY Robbie Laing 107 50
108 SEAFARER David Hayes 108 50
109 SEFRAH (NZ) David Hayes 109 50
110 SENTIRE (NZ) Robbie Laing 110 50
111 SHUAILY (PER) Lee Freedman 111 50
112 SOUTHERN COURAGE (NZ) Mick Price 112 50
113 SPEELBERG (NZ) Troy Corstens 113 50
114 TAIKOREA (NZ) Howie Matthews 114 50
115 TAYLLAROO Shane Oxlade 115 50
116 TEMPLE HILLS (NZ) Peter G Moody 116 50
117 THE BAVARIAN Colin Little 117 50
118 THE FUZZ (NZ) David Hayes 118 50
119 THE WOLVERINE (NZ) Troy Corstens 119 50
120 TRICK OF LIGHT (GB) Michael Kent 120 50
121 UBERALLES (NZ) Mark Walker 121 50
122 VIETNAM Liam Birchley 122 50
123 WILLIN (NZ) Barry Dunn 123 50
124 ZAVITE (NZ) Anthony Cummings 124 50
125 ZILZIE (NZ) Peter G Moody 125 50
126 ZINGARA Cliff Brown 126 50
127 ZULU KING (NZ) Brian Mayfield-Smith 127 50
128 BEST BEWARE Lindsey Smith 128 49


Second Declarations close at 12 noon on Tuesday, October 9

The ban on NSW and QLD horses undoubtedly hurts the quality (good on the connections of FERERONOCHE, for example, but if it can't even win a Naracoorte Cup, hard to see it taking this out), but still some pretty handy entrants there. Will be interesting to see both how this affects markets, and what will happen on bets placed pre-flu outbreak (all-in betting suggests they will be lost, but an announcement pending)

[Plunge Penguin]

Good news there - ALL bets placed prior to EI outbreak on non runners refunded regardless of reason why horse not running (good if you backed Pompeii Ruler, for example). New market just released.