Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

[OnSong]

On the hunt for value, if I get time for a bet today these are likely the ones I'll follow (all EW)

R1-3
R2 - 1, 7
R3 - 6
R4 - 4
R5 - 5
R6 - 8
R7 - 3
R8 - 17
R9 - 7

Leader’s track so far. Makes everything a little more difficult.

[Spargo]

Balaclava quaddie:
1,5
1,3,6
2,4,7,9,11,16,17
1,2,8,13
$50.40 @ 30%

Cup trifecta
2,4,7,9,11,16,17 boxed
$50.40 @ 24%

[mighty_tiger_79]

Balaclava quaddie:
1,5
1,3,6
2,4,7,9,11,16,17
1,2,8,13
$50.40 @ 30%

Cup trifecta
2,4,7,9,11,16,17 boxed
$50.40 @ 24%

Unlucky with the Cup tri. Only just seen the results.

Obviously going for a lotto sized divvy

[Spargo]

Balaclava quaddie:
1,5
1,3,6
2,4,7,9,11,16,17
1,2,8,13
$50.40 @ 30%

Cup trifecta
2,4,7,9,11,16,17 boxed
$50.40 @ 24%

Unlucky with the Cup tri. Only just seen the results.

Obviously going for a lotto sized divvy

Looked a real chance with 100 to go...

[LPH]

Posted: (Wednesday 12/09/2018 - 9pm)

As has been the tradition over the past couple of years, I have returned to provide my thoughts on the Spring Racing for 2018 – a year that could well see history made by the ‘Great Mare’ Winx. Even I, have resorted to calling her ‘Great’ – as you may already know, that Title (from my perspective anyway) was always bestowed upon the ‘Great’ Let’s Elope & the ‘Greater’ Sunline & the ‘Greatest’ Makybe Diva... but if Winx becomes the only horse in history to win 4 Cox Plates in a month or so, she must surely be ‘crowned’ not only the ‘Greatest of All Mares’, but perhaps the ‘Greatest Horse of All Time’ (in Australia), doesn’t she? We will see.

But that’s a while away yet, & there is undoubtedly some fantastic Racing to enjoy before the big 3 ‘Classics’ in a matter of months.

The Cups weights came out this week, with arguably the 2nd best horse in the Country, Humidor, at the top of the weights for both races. 58kgs is 1 kg below WFA. Personally, I think his best chance is over the 2400m of the Caulfield Cup, rather than the Flemington Classic, but I think he will be targeted for the McKinnon Stakes on the final day of the Flemington Carnival. He is a ‘Flemington Horse’ for mine, & his Australian Cup victory, coupled with his close 2nd to the Mare in last year’s Cox Plate (beaten ½ a length) means the 2000m McKinnon is ideal for him. That said, he could win the Caulfield Cup with the right run – his win @ WFA 2 weeks ago shows he is no ‘slouch’ at Caulfield.

At this early stage, I think the Lloyd Williams runner Homesman is an excellent chance in that race – he’s weighted nicely @ 6kgs under WFA with 53kgs & 2400m is his ‘pet’ distance. I backed him last week & that was a good run to finish 2nd – remembering that the winner of that race gets an automatic Caulfield Cup start, I reckon he’s being set for that race, & the stable would’ve liked to have won the race. The current $26 & $7.25 is a nice early price for a horse that I think will be much shorter on the day – I’ve already taken him in Cups Doubles & in the CC.

WOW – that’s some rant to start the Spring … better get on with this week’s Preview!

I’ll be honest & state from the outset that I have been struggling on the punt over the past 4 weeks – 1 winning day, 2 shockingly bad days & 1 break even day (last week)… not exactly ‘on fire’ at the minute. But as with all ‘Punters’ there’s always another day & hopefully this week will be a good one…
Flemington & Randwick are the Venues for this week:

Flemington R7 – Makybe Diva

This is an interesting race over the ‘Metric Mile’. There are big ‘wraps’ on the 1st starter here in Tosen Basil, as a genuine contender for the Melbourne Cup. This Weir runner is a Japanese import that hasn’t run in over 4 months – this is probably too short for him, having not run over a distance less than 2000m in his last 10 starts – happy to leave him out in this race, but interested to see how he goes & my gut feeling is he will enjoy the open spaces of ‘Headquarters’.

5 of the 12 runners are 2nd Up (No. 1,5,6,8,9) of these, No 1 Happy Clapper has a good 2nd up record & a great Mile record, as has No 6 Comin’ Through but the question on him is running ‘left-handed’ for the 1st time. That said, the length of the Flemington straight should compensate for any ‘wrong foot’ issues that may arise – he’s well worth considering in this race.

No 10 Kings Will Dream is a horse ‘on the rise’. His run for 3rd in the Memsie, behind the stable mate Humidor, was full of merit. Is he too short for this race? I think he is at the minute, but if we could get $2 the Place, he’s a great Place chance IMHO.

Humidor & Kementari the ‘class’ in the race, without doubt. Along with Happy Clapper, the likely winner should come from these 3. At the price, I have to back Happy Clapper – Powered $8 & $2.35.

Backing: No 1 Happy Clapper for 2 x 5 Units.
Exacta: 1 / 3 for 3 Units
Pick 4: 1, 3 / 1, 3, 6, 10, 11 / 1, 3, 6, 10, 11 / Field for 10%

Flemington R4 – Antler Luggage Plate

The ‘spruk’ on No 3 Brutal is enormous. Seeing IS believing, I guess, & he absolutely ‘spanked’ his opposition 1st up at Caulfield & then ran down the leader @ The Valley to score by ½ a length. I can’t back him @ the short quote, but I will be watching with great interest to see how he copes with the 7 Furlongs of this race. He could be anything, but it’s still very ‘early doors’ with him. Good luck to you if you back him & he wins, but I’m prepared to watch him at this stage.

Looking for something at a price, I would be prepared to gamble on the Hayes runners No. 2 & 16 as Place propositions here, particularly No 16 Qafila. She ran really well 1st up & the runner up in that race ran well, winning last start. I am concerned about her ‘strike rate’ - 5 starts & only 1 placing (as a 2yr old) before her 1st up run is a worry, but she might be a filly that ‘beefs up’ & comes back as a better 3 yr old. There’s been a bit of money for her, having come in from $14 to $12 during the week, so a gamble on her is not a bad prospect. The gate is a concern, but there is a few inside her & the stablemate outside her that might give her some cover coming around the turn, & I can see her swinging out toward the centre of the track between the 2 furlong & 300m mark, finishing off the race with a strong finish.

Backing: No 16 Qafila for 1 x 4 Units
Box Trifecta: 2, 3, 6, 13, 16 for 50%

Flemington R6 – Let’s Elope Stakes

This is a really good race for the Mares over 7 furlongs. Bella Martini has the form reference having run 4th behind last week’s winner Land of Plenty, but I think there is one here that is way over the odds at $14 & $4.20, in No 7 Samovare. Her record at the distance, track & trip, & 2nd up is very good. The price is too juicy to avoid & I am happy to take the gamble on her.

Backing: No 7 Samovare for 1 x 4 Units

Flemington R3 – The Sofitel

Nice 12 horse field here for a good quality race over 7 Furlongs for the Males. I am surprised by the price on offer for the Weir runner Cliff’s Edge. $12 (Powered) & $3.30 is too good to refuse. I heard ‘Gator’ on Get On last week state that many of the Weir runners are ‘sling-shotting 2nd up’ – he’s been in rare form tipping-wise, so that (along with the price) is good enough for me.

Backing: No 5 Cliff’s Edge 1 x 5 Units

Randwick R7 – Tea Rose Stakes

Can the ‘Female Tom Melbourne’, Oohood, finally break her ‘duck’? Just like ‘Tommy’, $2.50 (6/4) the Place, looks a good price on her. If she stays a ‘Maiden’, can she run in ‘The Kosiosko’? LOL…
I can’t have her, she had every chance last start but failed to produce when it counted – some horses just find it hard to win. Personally, I think that once she ‘cracks it’ for a win, she may well keep doing so – but I’m prepared to wait until that happens, that said, I concede her a Place chance for sure.

Again, the Hayes runner, No. 7 Futooh is a nice price here at $13 (Powered) & $3.40. Her run in the Silver Shadow was good, beaten less than a length. I have the same opinion here as for Qafila - she might be a filly that ‘beefs up’ & comes back as a better 3 yr old. Invariably, these ‘colours’ run well for this stable, with many quality horses over the years. At the price, happy to back her in a VERY OPEN Filly’s race.

Backing: No 7 Futooh 1 x 4 Units
Box Trifecta: 2, 3, 7, 9, 10, 13 for 35%

Randwick R4 – The Shorts

Backed Redzel last start for the win after he ‘drifted’ to 6/4 ($2.50) Powered – just thought he was too good a price & a class above the field on that occasion. Different story here, I think, for the following reasons; Being set for The Everest next start, out to 5 ½ Furlongs, Won’t be able to ‘sit’ on the Leader, as Ball of Muscle will make it a fast pace out in front. Having said all that, he IS the one to beat, but Odds On again? Will he drift again? If he gets out to 6/4 again, then I’ll ‘back up’ on him – don’t think that will happen this time, I expect him to start at best, $1.90.

Brave Smash is the one to take him on at the price, I think. Bowman engaged is a big plus, as is the gate (5) & his racing ‘pattern’. He’ll get the last crack at them. Is the distance too short? I would’ve liked another 100m to be more confident of a win, but Win & Place, he’s the one for me at $10 (Powered) & $2.15.

Backing: No 2 Brave Smash for 1 x 5 Units
Exacta: 2 / 1 for 4 Units

There we go Lads, also posted early (Wednesday Night) so hopefully the prices ‘hold up’ & no scratchings occur. Looking forward to another enjoyable few hours in the Unley UBET Agency, betting on my phone – due to the ‘Money Back’ options.

Enjoy the Day, let’s hope for a couple of winners.
It’s going to be another long, enjoyable Spring Carnival – no doubt!
Giddy Up!

[mighty_tiger_79]

Thank Allah the great man is back fill our mattresses

[Spargo]

Great to have you back @LPH

[Lightning McQueen]

How much have you outlayed in that lot there @LPH?

I'm the punter this week in our syndicate and I have $195 at my disposal.

I did place a few personal multi's on last night and was going to put a few more on today, I was toying with Happy Clapper as he is generally around the mark and I rate Zahra as a jockey, I think I'll find something today for him.

So far:

MR7 & 8: Humidor (EW) into Marcel from Madrid (EW)
SR6, 7 & 8: Winx (W) into Pretty in Pink (EW) into Avilius (W)
AR4 & 5: Light 'n' Fire (EW) into Trembling (EW)

[Lightning McQueen]

On the hunt for value, if I get time for a bet today these are likely the ones I'll follow (all EW)

R1-3
R2 - 1, 7
R3 - 6
R4 - 4
R5 - 5
R6 - 8
R7 - 3
R8 - 17
R9 - 7

$5 EW on every selection would've seen a $100 outlay for a $55 return, wasn't a great day for value until late for the exotics. I'm glad I left the meeting alone for most of the day as my tri's would've paid squat.

Quaddie wasn't too bad if you play the low numbers, would've picked up $1174 for $100 picking no's 1-5 for each leg.

[mighty_tiger_79]

On the hunt for value, if I get time for a bet today these are likely the ones I'll follow (all EW)

R1-3
R2 - 1, 7
R3 - 6
R4 - 4
R5 - 5
R6 - 8
R7 - 3
R8 - 17
R9 - 7

$5 EW on every selection would've seen a $100 outlay for a $55 return, wasn't a great day for value until late for the exotics. I'm glad I left the meeting alone for most of the day as my tri's would've paid squat.

Quaddie wasn't too bad if you play the low numbers, would've picked up $1174 for $100 picking no's 1-5 for each leg.

I just realised, and im sure others already knew, but you do the form as if its keno/lotto!

[OnSong]

Got this messaged to me yesty from my younger brother. It's his mate's horse, so he put a "conservative bet" on it. Yikes.

[Bum Crack]

Got this messaged to me yesty from my younger brother. It's his mate's horse, so he put a "conservative bet" on it. Yikes.

I gather he got serverely munted last night then.

[OnSong]

Got this messaged to me yesty from my younger brother. It's his mate's horse, so he put a "conservative bet" on it. Yikes.

I gather he got serverely munted last night then.

He was in the shearing shed at the time, and given the way the cropping season is going at the farm, it's probably a drop in the ocean in the grand scheme of things. But still...

[JK]

Imagine if he hadn’t taken the unders?? Nice collect regardless!!

Glad I only bet on the cup yesterday

[Bum Crack]

Got this messaged to me yesty from my younger brother. It's his mate's horse, so he put a "conservative bet" on it. Yikes.

I gather he got serverely munted last night then.

He was in the shearing shed at the time, and given the way the cropping season is going at the farm, it's probably a drop in the ocean in the grand scheme of things. But still...

Must be going OK to afford $150 bets on 151/1 shots

[OnSong]

Imagine if he hadn’t taken the unders?? Nice collect regardless!!

Glad I only bet on the cup yesterday

Unders? He got 151/1. It paid $60 on the tote.

[OnSong]

Got this messaged to me yesty from my younger brother. It's his mate's horse, so he put a "conservative bet" on it. Yikes.

I gather he got serverely munted last night then.

He was in the shearing shed at the time, and given the way the cropping season is going at the farm, it's probably a drop in the ocean in the grand scheme of things. But still...

Must be going OK to afford $150 bets on 151/1 shots

Funny that, I spent $150 and got $90 back and he spent $150 ($75EW) and got $13k.

[JK]

Imagine if he hadn’t taken the unders?? Nice collect regardless!!

Glad I only bet on the cup yesterday

Unders? He got 151/1. It paid $60 on the tote.

Oops Only saw the place div, lol nicely played!!

[Brodlach]

The ratings in the paper has
Le Romain 100
Winx 97

[LPH]

How much have you outlayed in that lot there @LPH?

I'm the punter this week in our syndicate and I have $195 at my disposal.

I did place a few personal multi's on last night and was going to put a few more on today, I was toying with Happy Clapper as he is generally around the mark and I rate Zahra as a jockey, I think I'll find something today for him.

So far:

MR7 & 8: Humidor (EW) into Marcel from Madrid (EW)
SR6, 7 & 8: Winx (W) into Pretty in Pink (EW) into Avilius (W)
AR4 & 5: Light 'n' Fire (EW) into Trembling (EW)

Hey, Lightning...

For ease of conversion, I will use 1 Unit = $10.
That way with the Multiples (Quin,Exact,Tri,P4) its easy to convert the cost...

Just for fun, I thought I'd run a Spreadsheet too, updating the % returns per week - that way you can all 'bag' me @ the end of the Spring
(Happy to put my 'credibility' on the line )

BTW, Redzel has been scratched in Sydney today, so no Exacta bet with Brave Smash & the price on Brave Smash got hammered due to a number of scratchings in the race.
Good Luck today, hope you get your $195 back