by gadj1976 » Fri Sep 21, 2018 8:42 am
by helicopterking » Fri Sep 21, 2018 11:14 am
LPH wrote:22/09/2018 (Posted 7:45pm Thursday)
OMG… an absolute ‘Barry Crocker’ last week, proving once again, that as a Tipster I can get it horribly wrong at times. Seriously considered a ‘Roman Bath’ last Saturday night!
It is days like that, that seriously dent a Punter’s confidence & make him question whether or not it is wise to continue to pursue this past time! But, as always, there are more races this Saturday to peruse… And so it is to Caulfield & Rosehill that I venture this week – somewhat ‘gun shy’ it has to be said!
I’m thinking it could be a very successful day for Godolphin, particularly in Melbourne, but at both venues. The big fields have me concerned at Caulfield & the small fields in Sydney have ruined any decent win/place value priced runners – for these reasons I’ve only focussed on the 3 main races of the Day.
Caulfield Race 8 – Sir Rupert Clarke
Huge field to contest this very interesting race. Godolphin hold the keys to the race IMHO.
Osbourne Bulls ran really well fresh & his 2nd up record is superb. I think he’s likely to get a good ‘cart’ into the race & if Williams can get him in clear running, he’ll go very close to winning the race. $2.40 (Ubet) the Place is pretty good odds but we might get better on the day - $2.60 perhaps? The stable mate Home of the Brave is the likely leader in the race & should set a steady tempo up front.
I do like the Hawkes runner Showtime, at the value. Forgive his last run & go on the previous win here in the PJ Lawence Stakes, beating Hartnell. Gate 1 is a concern, in terms of being able to get clear passage around the turn, but recent history at Caulfield suggests the inside IS an advantage, so he’s worth a small gamble at $17 (Powered) & $4.40 the Place (Ubet)
Jungle Cat is a very interesting runner. Trainer has sent a number of horses out here early this year & we can take a lead from that, over the Spring. Godolphin are clearly VERY serious about winning our ‘Majors’ & dominating the Carnivals. 3 x Trainers (Cummings, Appleby & the ‘Shiek) will have an all-out assault over the next few months, & you can throw in Michael Freedman too!
Backing: Osbourne Bulls 16 Units the Place & Showtime 1 x 3 Units
Box Trifecta: 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 13 for (35%)
Caulfield Race 7 – The Bendigo Bank Cup (The Naturalism Stakes)
I’m pretty sure the winner of this race gets an exemption from the ballot for the Caulfield Cup. That suggests that a number of contenders for that race would be keen to win this. As a result, I would say the winner will come from Nos 1, 3, 5, 10 & 13.
Folkswood is 1st up but don’t be put off by that – he won the Cranbourne Cup over 2000m last time in. He has to go into all multiples. As you know, I am a big fan of the Mare, Hiyaam. She’s been good to me, winning at nice prices, & she owes me nothing. That said, her last run was poor but she was wide & The Valley is not a place you want to be caught wide at.
I have a sneaky suspicion that the Weir runner, Yogi, is going to win a good quality race this Spring. This may not be it, but I certainly concede it a place chance, at least. His form is good, he’s 3rd up & he drops weight here. The gate is the concern on Saturday, but watch out for him in something like an Underwood in 2 weeks or even a Lexus @ Flemington on Derby Day, at a price.
I have settled on Our Venice Beach at $8.50 (Powered) & $2.90 (Ubet). Love backing Lloyd Williams’ runners in anything above 1800m because you just know they will be fit & they generally like to run in the front 5 or 6 runners, so they make their own luck. He’ll do me at the price, would love 2/1 the place on the day!
Backing: Our Venice Beach 2 x 5 Units
Pick 4: 1, 5, 10 / 1, 5, 10 / 1, 3, 5, 10, 11, 13, 18 / Field (6%) – 3 Units
Rosehill Race 7 – The Golden Rose
Danawi is the obvious leader in the race. If he goes ‘gang-busters’ up front, it will set up the finish for those back in the field, in; Graf, Seabrook, The Autumn Sun & Lean Mean Machine.
Seabrook won the Champagne in the Autumn (1600m), after running a creditable 5th in the Golden Slipper, here at Rosehill. There are only 3 horses (Danawi, Seabrook & The Autumn Sun) that have won over 1350m. Is that a significant statistic? I think it is.
Can the Filly beat the Colts? If this was in Melbourne, I would say no question, as the Melbourne crop of fillies are better than the colts. In Sydney? At the price, I’m going to back her to do it.
I can see Santos hitting the front with a Furlong to go in the race, & Seabrook coming hard with The Autumn Sun down the outside. Seabrook at $11 Powered & $3 the Place is the value in the race.
Backing: Seabrook 2 x 7 Units
Quinella: 2, 6, 11 for 3 Units (cost 9 Units)
Exacta: 2 / 11 for 4 Units
Box Trifecta: 1, 2, 3, 6, 11 for (50%)
There you go Lads – hoping that I get a couple of collects THIS week, if for no other reason than to rebuild a bit of confidence for the weeks to come. Not to mention the Bank!
Enjoy the Day.
I’m attending the SANFL Grand Final on Sunday – 1st one for 5 years.
Looking forward to a big day on the piss with the Boy!
Come say Hello - look for the 'No 19' at the Cathedral End
by Lightning McQueen » Mon Sep 24, 2018 1:16 pm
by mighty_tiger_79 » Mon Sep 24, 2018 1:19 pm
Lightning McQueen wrote:Jason Whiting at regional meetings, gee he's won me some coin, was on fire yesterday again.
by LPH » Mon Sep 24, 2018 1:45 pm
by Lightning McQueen » Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:46 pm
mighty_tiger_79 wrote:Lightning McQueen wrote:Jason Whiting at regional meetings, gee he's won me some coin, was on fire yesterday again.
I love the Fish
by Lightning McQueen » Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:46 pm
LPH wrote:Lost another 59 Units this week ...
To quote The Simpsons... "Aughhhhhh, I don't know what I'm doing"
That's 119 Units down in 2 weeks!
Oh Dear...
by LPH » Thu Sep 27, 2018 9:20 pm
by mighty_tiger_79 » Thu Sep 27, 2018 9:49 pm
by heater31 » Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:05 pm
by Brodlach » Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:18 pm
Brodlach wrote:Rory Laird might end up the best IMO, he is an absolute jet. He has been in great form at the Bloods
by mighty_tiger_79 » Fri Sep 28, 2018 11:09 pm
by OnSong » Sat Sep 29, 2018 9:28 pm
by LPH » Sun Sep 30, 2018 11:37 am
OnSong wrote:Hartnell and Oohood surely made for a better day LPH
by OnSong » Sun Sep 30, 2018 1:58 pm
by Spargo » Sun Sep 30, 2018 3:48 pm
by Sheik Yerbouti » Sun Sep 30, 2018 5:10 pm
LPH wrote:Sunday: Caulfield – MR 7 – The Underwood Stakes 1800m
I am a fan of Homesman as you know, having got him at $26 & $7.25 for the Caulfield Cup. As such, I am hopeful he’ll run really well in this race as a lead up. His run in the Feehan at The Valley over the Mile was great, just missing out on the win, beating a good one in Night’s Watch. This race might still be a bit short for him at 1800m, but don’t dismiss him whatever you do.
As I stated last week, Charlie Appleby & Godolphin are deadly serious about taking out our feature races this Spring – Jungle Cat’s win 1st up proved that last week. So, you have to think Blair House should be competitive in this race on Sunday – the price would suggest that Punters feel the same.
Humidor is the Class horse here IMHO. He’s 2nd only to the Greatest Mare (possibly Horse) we’ve ever seen, in terms of WFA quality. He beat Kings Will Dream here 2 starts ago, over the unsuitable 7 furlongs, & that horse is widely tipped as the Caulfield Cup likely winner. That alone has to suggest a bet in him is almost a given, with the extra 2 furlongs being suitable. He’ll get a great sight from the gate & with the rail expected to be back in the true (isn’t it?) he’ll need the same sort of luck he got in that race to get through along the fence & win. I love him as a horse but he’s again way too short for me.
Last year’s winner Bonneval is a silly price at $21 if you ask me. She’ll run well here again, particularly if the track is a bit soft after the expected rain in Melbourne over the weekend. She’s worth an early gamble at that price because I think she’ll be shorter on the day. $4.60 the place is nice little gamble ‘early doors’ too. I don’t think Comin’ Through will run a good 9 furlongs & I’m not sure Caulfield suits this horse either – more a Flemington type IMHO.
Backing: Bonneval (early) 1 x 4 Units
Box Trifecta: 2, 4, 7, 8, 9, 10 (35%) for 4 Units
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by mighty_tiger_79 » Sun Sep 30, 2018 6:02 pm
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