Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby OnSong » Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:03 pm

Not a bad day overall. Kicking myself as it could have been better.

Results in bold below plus any relevant dividends (will use UBET divs).

I've marked winners I included in my numbers but did not back as no return, but included the exotic dividends if I had the numbers within my selections for the race.

OnSong wrote:Murray Bridge tomorrow (now today, started writing last night):

Not a track I've had much success at but to hell with history, right? Now here's my thoughts on the races based on history...

R1) 1 Olympic Academy carried huge weight last week to just go down when held up in the straight. Also won a race at big odds the week before but will jump close to even money and should have too much class for the field, despite giving away 7.5kg to the rest of the field. Others in the mix are 2 High Rolla, 6 Last One Named and 8 Henry The Dolphin, which has ability but was poor last week along with 4 Connemara Rose, which I can not entertain as a winning chance despite being third favourite at $4.40. 1 over 2,6 and 8

1 wins @ $2.20.
Tri of 1,2,6 paid $87.10


R2) Plenty of speed here from 8 Metro Tramp and 1 A Thousand Degrees. Little surprise they are both in the top two in betting with super trials, but McEvoy's runner and top weight, A Thousand Degrees, appears to have more ability and should win with 8 around the mark. Having said that, its one race start was terrible and raced keenly, which does cast doubt about its performance on track. 10 Picayune would be worth a look if it gets a start as it's only an EMG at this stage, I'm thinking it can run top four along with 3 Crown Fontein, which ran a 5L third this track and distance before a spell. 1 and 8 over 3 & 10.

Late mail 4 wins @ $13.40 (posted below after initial write up)
Tri of 4,1,3 paid $361
F4 of 4,1,3, 8 paid $1047


R3) Tricky affair, with just the five runners but three vying for favouritism. I like 1 Borris in Ossory, form last race in Adelaide was solid behind Ruomaza, a much classier horse which went off to Melbourne. Loves this trip, local trainer and I don't mind young Logan on board, who gets a good weight claim here. Bonus is barrier 4 again. 2 Cannot Be Serious wasn't far away last start at Naracoorte despite being held up. Down in class, two wins from four at the mile. 3 Wanted By All was disappointing in its last two starts in similar company. One from one at track and distance but carrying 59.5kg. Kah on board is a plus but can't justify backing it at less than $6. 5 Big Boy Blev won in impressive fashion at Halidon over the same distance but the horses it defeated that day haven't gone on to do much at all this campaign. Could still run top three, local trainer a plus. Don't mind the roughie at all, 6 Honor The Moment. Seems to be improving and won 8.6L over the mile at Broken Hill last start. One to be wary of. Risking the 3, going with 1 over 2,5,6.

3 wins. Ack. No return

R4) Looks like a race of two classes. 4 Shows Promise was a good thing beaten last start and carries favouritism with Kah on board. Every reason to believe he will be in the finish here. 2 John The Rodent looks to be the early leader, vying for the front with 13 So Intelligent. Both got overrun last start, although 2 was over the mile, 13 over 1400m. 11 Crown Harmonium draws the car park again but has the class to go past a fair few of these, while 7 Meadows Lassie and 8 Notre Temps are other chances. 4 over 2,7,11 then 13 & 8.

4 scratched, 5 Jetabel wins, don't know how, beats 11,13, 8. (No return). Also bombed me out of quaddie

R5) Aside from the two bottom weights, another tough affair to find a winner. 1 Classy Jack doesn't scream winner potential but has place claims. 2 Knotted has form over this distance and regularly threatens. Blinkers on today for Grant Young, barrier 7 not ideal. 3 Ogunde is back sharply in grade but the way it finished its last start over the 1000m hardly fills you with confidence. 4 Musical Query has good first up form, Jamie Kah riding probably deflates the price. 6 Willander Princess has a win at this class, track and distance, if we can get each way value, that's where I'll be heading. 5 Pellina tired late over the 1000m in this class but will be up front boxing on with them early. Thinking 4, 2 & 6 as value, 1,3 & 5 to fill the top 4.

4 wins @ $4.50 & $1.70
6 second @ $2.20 place
Tri of 4,6,3 paid $118.40
F4 of 4,6,3,1 paid $438


R6) I'm actually pretty enthused about the two top weights here, 1 Autmed and 2 Cool Fonzy. Is it just me or does Todd Pannell seem to be riding very well without the plaudits of his female colleagues? He's on the 2 here, which has a win and three placings from four second up starts, and three placings from four starts this track and distance. Wanting closer to $6 though, opened about $3.80. Barrier 10 for 1 doesn't help but a weight claim and staying pedigree if made to work does. Still want about $10. Tipped 3 Euro Gold at $18 two starts back and this is its distance but step up in class casts doubt. 7 Lizzie Louise won its maiden here but struggled in this class. Not blown away by 5 Just Live On and 6 Texas Miller. Again, Kah on 6 deflates the price, but Shane Cahill on 5 means it should get every chance and recent form holds up. 5, 2 & 1 if we get the price. 3 and 6 other maybes.

6 wins @ $4.50 (no return)
1 third @ $2.50
Tri of 6,2,1 paid $80.50
F4 of 6,2,1,5 paid $289

R7) I'm keeping a close eye on 13 Bonify, which beat home Kumo in a BM45 at Broken Hill last start. Kumo then went to Hamilton yesterday and a solid 4th at huge odds in a BM58 over the same distance. Blinkers on, barrier 2, think it's worth a tinkle each way for sure. I'm again looking at Pannell's ride 9 In The Fast Lane as my main winning hope, 3 Art Music has good second up form, 4 Exalted Dee carries winning form in but wide barrier will test, 5 Majestic Ridge has each way claims, while 10 Sand Cat has enjoyed some success this campaign. 9 to win, 13 each way, then 3,4,5 and 10

3 wins @ $11.30 (no return)
Tri of 3,10,9 paid $344
F4 of 3,10,9,4 paid $1967


Hope these numbers helped others fill up. I give myself $20 to just place interest bets but it doesn't really allow for boxed exotics etc. Sad really, could have cleaned up! Ah well, bit of fun for the day.
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Lightning McQueen » Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:01 am

OnSong wrote:Hope these numbers helped others fill up. I give myself $20 to just place interest bets but it doesn't really allow for boxed exotics etc. Sad really, could have cleaned up! Ah well, bit of fun for the day.


Roving trifecta's are your friend when trying to jag small tri's.
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby OnSong » Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:39 am

Lightning McQueen wrote:
OnSong wrote:Hope these numbers helped others fill up. I give myself $20 to just place interest bets but it doesn't really allow for boxed exotics etc. Sad really, could have cleaned up! Ah well, bit of fun for the day.


Roving trifecta's are your friend when trying to jag small tri's.

Can’t do them with Ladbrokes
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Lightning McQueen » Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:54 am

OnSong wrote:Can’t do them with Ladbrokes

Or sportsbet, it pisses me off, I have to go into ubet, it does have it's advantages though, my winning tickets stay in my wallet until the following Saturday.

I'm a bit cooked with sportsbet now though, it's worked out well that they've slipped lately as I don't do midweek betting now.
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby LPH » Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:34 pm

17/11/2018 (Posted Thursday Evening 15/11/18 21:35pm)

It would be fair to suggest that 2018’s version of the Spring Carnival has not brought the ‘riches’ One might have expected or sought – in fact the percentage loss has been a significant 28% on Outlay. I apologise for this overall loss (if you followed my Tips) & can only hope that 2019 will bring a better result. To be fair, I have been a little unlucky with a number of 4ths (at good prices) & missing a couple of decent Trifectas but that’s the nature of the game & I have to cop any ‘abuse’, sweetly. This week I won’t be going to the Races or TAB because (as is the tradition) I will be attending the Cross-Country Day of the International 3-Day Event, in the City. I am a lover of Jumps Racing, so naturally, I also enjoy this type of Equestrian Event too. That said, you can have Dressage – just doesn’t have the same appeal for me.

Anyway, to Sandown Classic Day…

MR 8 – The Zipping (Sandown) Classic 2400m

I backed The Taj Mahal last year in this race & he ran well to win. Can he back it up again, just like Zipping himself (having won it 4 times!)? Certainly, he can win here but he’s too short for mine. There’s not a lot of value in the race with Who Shot the Barman the outsider at 11/1.

I do like the stablemate Libran to run well in this race. This 8 yr old is a good Stayer who has performed well just below the top level (like this race) in the past & particularly his last 2 starts. His 3rd in the Queen Elizabeth last week was full of merit, running on late. The one thing you know is he’ll ‘stay the trip’. He does go up 1 kg on that run, under WFA conditions. The ‘knock’ is he has been up for a while & his Metropolitan run was average, but if you look at his Form, his poor runs have come from poor barriers. I think at the price, he could upset the favourite.

Backing: Libran 3 x 8 Units
Box Pick 4: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 (50%) 4 Units

MR 4 The Eclipse Stakes 1800m

This race is probably the one race I’m looking forward to watching on my phone in Rymil Park. The Michael Moroney runner Radipol loves this distance. He gets a great run from the gate sitting behind the likely leader, Darren Weir’s Tradesman. I am wary of his other runner Kiwia as a run on chance but I’m prepared to back Radipol to have enough ‘in the tank’ to hold them off. Happy with the Powered $12 & $3.10 the Place is really good value for a race like this. Going with my gut (substantial as it is).

Backing: Radipol 1 x 5 Units
Box Trifecta: 1, 3, 5, 6, 8 (50%) 3 Units

MR 6 – The Sandown Stakes 1500m

There are a lot of runners that we’ve seen at various Venues throughout the Spring here in this race. 1500m is always a difficult distance to weigh-up Form IMHO because the Punter has to decide between ‘Milers’ & ‘Sprinters’. With this in mind, I’m looking at weights as the decisive factor in determining which runner to back.

Fifty Stars is the rightful favourite but the extra 100m is a concern at the $2.20 IMO. The price rules him out for me anyway, but if I was prepared to take a price like that, I think he can get beaten – so he’s a risk for me. That said, if you are going to back him, the fact he won over 7 furlongs on a Heavy Track, might ease any angst.

The McEvoy runner Dollar for Dollar has been racing in high quality races & he was just pipped at the post in The Rupert Clarke by a good one in Jungle Cat. But the 59 kgs is a worry & I’d prefer to back the stablemate Fox Hall, with a big drop in weight & the trainer’s nephew Kerrin in the seat. The Powered $15 & $3 is juicy & worth a gamble IMO. Concede a winning chance to Sircconi despite the last start failure & Linda Meech is a good rider, but again, the weight might be an issue.

Backing: Fox Hall 1 x 5 Units
Box Trifecta: 1, 3, 4, 6, 8, 9 (35%) 4 Units

MR 9 – The Doveton Stakes 1000m

Very interesting sprint race. The speed map suggests that those in the outside gates (14, 1, 11, 4) try to go forward, with 13, 6 & 8 pushing up to hold them out. I’m looking at something to do no work early, sit off the speed, get out in the long straight & run over the top of them. That horse might just be Guard of Honour (No. 7). Kris Lees has had a good Spring in Melbourne & this fellow is 4th Up into this race, this is the least amount of weight he’s carried & he might just enjoy the weight advantage over the more fancied runners. There’s been some money for him, shortening from $20 to $15 during the week – so I’m happy to take the Powered $18 & $4.60 in what should be an open race.

Backing: Guard of Honour 1 x 5 Units

So there it is Lads – the final rant for the Spring of 2018.
Thanks for indulging me once again this year.
Disappointing results across the 9 weeks but we live to fight another day, next year.
Enjoy the Day.
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Spargo » Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:54 pm

Thanks for all your work through the spring & putting your plums on the line @LPH
Much respect. =D>
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby OnSong » Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:40 pm

Libran was absolutely mauled at the top of the straight last start too but battled on well. Think there’s improvement there
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby mighty_tiger_79 » Fri Nov 16, 2018 8:15 am

A former Glenelg player who got married on the weekend receiving an interesting gift from an invitee who couldnt make it.
Bets of $1k placed for all groomsman and also on behalf of the groom for a little bit more. And it netted a handy divvy for all involved.
Booooooooooo
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Lightning McQueen » Fri Nov 16, 2018 10:58 am

I seen that I had $10 in the sportsbet account last night and I was bored so I went against my wishes and had a little punt, closed the night with over $150 with a few tri's in place for tomorrow already ,it was up to $198 as I just wanted to get over the next $50 bracket to close it off.

At least now I wont have to chew into my own money for the day for bets tomorrow, I could've really nailed a couple of bets too if I had more balls and stuck with my initial plans, scabbed out and went tri's when I should've gone P4's, anyway, stiff shit.
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby mighty_tiger_79 » Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:58 am

P4s are so 1999
F4s now
Booooooooooo
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Lightning McQueen » Fri Nov 16, 2018 12:00 pm

mighty_tiger_79 wrote:P4s are so 1999
F4s now

Yeah, should have a different name altogether. Sorry.
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Spargo » Fri Nov 16, 2018 12:22 pm

Rosehill R3 # 10, currently $4.80 - you won’t get that tomorrow

The rest are all each way;
Doomben R4 # 7 & R9 # 18 (both now scratched)
Sandown
R2 # 1
R3 # 3
R4 # 7 & 8
R5 # 8
R9 # 1
R10 # 1
Last edited by Spargo on Sat Nov 17, 2018 9:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby OnSong » Fri Nov 16, 2018 1:21 pm

More text to dig through. Heading to Vigneron's Day on Sunday. Went through the acceptances before markets were up. See how close I am to the market. Haha. Could be miles off. Again, purely for interest.

Strathalbyn Sunday!
No prices up yet, so flying blind to some degree with only form to follow.

R1) My top selection would be 9 Stalagmite, which has improved its fitness and showed it can stay the trip last start. Gatt retains the ride so he should know what its capable of and give it every possible. Hoping for each way odds of about $6. Next selections would be 5 Go Straightandhard with Jamie Kah in the saddle. Boxed on gamely and held ground last start, back in grade. 3 Berkshire Babe showed good staying potential, doing its best work late in a BM60 at Penola over 1700m having been wide for the trip. 2 Rex Goliath closed late to score at big odds over 1500m last start. Different jockey in the saddle, extra 500m the test, but was held up for a long portion of that race so I think it had more in the tank.

9, 5, 3, 2 my top four, 6, 7 & 8 outsiders and really can't see 1 or 4 figuring in the finish on recent form.

R2) Interesting maiden affair. Lots of speed from the inside barriers with 9 Pam's Journey and 8 Leggero drawing 1 & 2. This is vital from the 1100m start as you basically lob straight onto the lengthy bend before you're into the home straight. Pam's Journey will benefit from a weight claim with Gary Lo on board. Think it's got a bit more ability than Leggero, which led last start over 1200m and was swamped in the final 200m at Morphettville in a tougher race. Did the same this track and trip before that run. Will be right in the finish again but extra weight a concern. These two will fight out most of the race up front, while 4 Panzer Princess has shown great consistency without making a breakthrough. Maybe fading after a distant third last start. Same goes for 1 All Things Nice, a long way off in second last start but showed good early speed. 5 Picayune was disappointing Wednesday and on the short turn around, can't see it figuring for first, while 6 Issara wasn't terrible when third in a trial up against short fave A Thousand Degrees, beaten on Wednesday but would have won at 1000m+.

9 & 8, then 1, 4, 6, then 5, while hard to comment on 2 and 3, one a first starter with no public trial form, the other hasn't been sighted for more than a year. Check the early market.

R3) Going to the inside barriers again from the 1200m start, with 5 Tailgunner coming from Barrier 2. Finished close up to A Thousand Degrees in the recent trial, which ran well enough at Murray Bridge on Wednesday to think it's destined for better things. Forgive the recent run of 11 Sizzling Affair, it has plenty of ability and Jamie Kah on board looks promising. 12 Take It Up a Gia comes from Barrier 1 and could run a race at each way odds if it doesn't blow the start. 8 Airmail has the speed from 10 to cross and lead early and is fit enough to hold on to a place, along with 4 Kyd Rock. Look for 10 Purely On Spec to close late, while 1 Gourmelin produced a close up fourth from a wide barrier in its first start on this track and trip, capable of doing that again after a four-week freshen up. 2 Heroes Quest is bothering me a bit. Hard to have but Jeff Maund is capable of causing an upset.

5, 11 over 4, 8, 10 and 12, then 1 or 2 if you're feeling lucky.

R4) On recent form, you should get genuine, honest efforts out of 11 Down Under Prince and 12 Jarrvis. Look for decent odds around those two, closer to the $10 mark is reasonable value. 8 Finniss Moment can figure for the minors along with 1 Grand Armada, which does enough work early but can't close the deal of late. The improvement of 6 Claiborne King is credible and Maund will give it a chance. Also had 2 Big Boy Blev as a chance on Wednesday before he was scratched, so logic says this should be easier and he must be included.

2, 11, 12, then 1, 8 and 6.

R5) 7 No Joy should be a class above here after good trial form. Also leaning towards 1 Bubblewrap and 2 Fulton Street as leaders in the market. 4 Fort Necessity could grab a place, while 5 The Trooper and 6 Artistic Focus could back up their maiden wins in this tougher event. I've always made time for 10 Artistic Escape and watch 9 Vein Choice closely. Interstate raider which can play up but if it behaves, it has the ability here.

7 over 1 and 2, then 5, 6 and 10, maybe 4.

R6) Hard to look anywhere other than 3 Tsaritsyn. Been on a spell for more than a year but you've got to think Jolly has it right ahead of resuming following a good trial on November 9. Others to figure include 2 Oamaru Owl, which beat 7 Snowbrook last start over 1200m, although if Snowbrook is within striking distance, the extra 150m will be in its favour. I also don't mind 9 See Me Rollin as a chance, been very consistent this campaign, and respect 1 Little Akie's record here, although recent form suggests it's not going so well.

3 and 9, then 2 and 7, 1 as a rough chance.

R7) Think 1 Tambang Bessie had more to give after breaking its maiden over the 1100m last start. Another 250m might be the big query. 3 Exacting should be in the finish if it doesn't do too much wrong. 4 Getouttheway has shown ability and you can forgive its last start. 5 Big Call closed well to the line last start over 1200m and you'd think 1350m suits. 8 Hilumiere finished well at Morphettville last start, working home for third after circling the field. 10 Regal Eagle wasn't far away from Tambang Bessie and with racing room, could challenge, while two runners give me rough tingles, 12 Swift Jet and 7 Sylvan Crest, having its first run for a new stable.

5 and 3 over 1, 4, 8 and 10. 7 & 12 rough chances
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby LPH » Fri Nov 16, 2018 10:13 pm

Great Preview... Country Racing :)
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby OnSong » Sat Nov 17, 2018 8:17 am

LPH wrote:Great Preview... Country Racing :)

Looking forward to it! I really enjoy SA provincial racing, I live across the road from the Balak track so I tend to see a lot of these horses and trainers over the year. Not so much of late, lost two meets due to track issues. Ack

Wondering whether it’s beneficial to do form before the prices come out. I reckon I saw someone doing it in a greyhound thread...?
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Brodlach » Sat Nov 17, 2018 9:08 am

I think when prices are up it is easy to “second guess” your selections
July 11th 2012....
Brodlach wrote:Rory Laird might end up the best IMO, he is an absolute jet. He has been in great form at the Bloods
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby OnSong » Sat Nov 17, 2018 7:07 pm

Anyone not get **** over today?
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby mighty_tiger_79 » Sat Nov 17, 2018 7:39 pm

OnSong wrote:Anyone not get **** over today?

Me.
My punting has just started!
Booooooooooo
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby mighty_tiger_79 » Sat Nov 17, 2018 7:43 pm

OnSong wrote:
LPH wrote:Great Preview... Country Racing :)

Looking forward to it! I really enjoy SA provincial racing, I live across the road from the Balak track so I tend to see a lot of these horses and trainers over the year. Not so much of late, lost two meets due to track issues. Ack

Wondering whether it’s beneficial to do form before the prices come out. I reckon I saw someone doing it in a greyhound thread...?


Its much more beneficial.
You have got to back yourself in.
As Brodlach has mentioned, once you have a market up, and there is a big discrepancy you can 2nd guess yourself. Which ultimately leads to a poor outcome.
You have to be confident in your process. At the end of the day, its your opinion vs someone else.
Booooooooooo
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Re: Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

Postby Spargo » Sun Nov 18, 2018 12:20 pm

Rosehill R3 # 10, currently $4.80 - you won’t get that tomorrow. Backed in to $2.40, ran second.

The rest are all each way;
Doomben R4 # 7 & R9 # 18 Both scratched
Sandown
R2 # 1 ran 3rd $2.60
R3 # 3 ran 2nd $4.60
R4 # 7 & 8 ran 3rd $2.30
R5 # 8 ran 3rd $2.80
R9 # 1 $14 in to $4.50 - unplaced
R10 # 1 scratched
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