am Bays wrote:Trader wrote:I'm not too worried about the extra 6 cases announced this arvo.
While it hasn't been confirmed yet, it would be a safe assumption it was the same bloke (the 81 year old who went to Argentina - case #1) who was at both the Greek (saturday night) and the Winery (Sunday arvo) (or if not the bloke, his daughter who was case #2).
If it was someone who caught it at the greek and then was already spreading it on Sunday afternoon, then I'd be worried, as that is meaning its cycling through in under 24 hours.
If its case 1 or 2, not worried. If its case 4 or 5 that's spreading it on Sunday arvo, then we'll have a heap of people who spread it everywhere on Monday and Tuesday before we locked down tuesday night.
Hopefully the Journo's are able to ask an intelligent question at tomorrow morning's conference and confirm which case it was that spread it around at the winery, that will let us know how worried we need to be.
Having said the above, even if it was case 4 or 5, that's bad, and we'll have a sh!tload of people that need to go into quarantine, however the process remains the same:
1) work out who has it,
2) find out where they went,
3) quarantine those that also went there, and test them, if positive, refer to step 1.
The above cycle only needs to run through the loop until you get to 6pm Tuesday night. They shouldn't be spreading it after 6pm Tuesday.
Even if they need to run through the above three steps for 100 people (currently at 12), they have already caught up to cases that caught it on Sunday afternoon. If they can keep up the same pace, it's only another 52 hours or so between Sunday afternoon's spreading event, and the Tuesday 6pm lockdown.
If we keep this pace, 52 hours after today's 6 which were known at about 11am today, gets us to roughly 3pm Friday. Absolutely no reason we can't have this wrapped up by 6pm on Tuesday.
Agreed the one proviso is they may want to see the day five and day 13 testing data for those who went into quarantine up until Tuesday this week.
For that reason I can see an extra seven days of restrictions at least and maybe lockdown.
By 6pm Tuesday next week we'll have all the day 1 and day 5 tests back from everyone that's been at a 'super spreading' event.
So there should be enough data for the trio to make informed decisions.
Nothing that's come to light yet suggests they need to extend the lockdown.
Oh, and lets not forget, the Lockdown is for the state, quarantine is for those that have been at exposure sites.
I 100% support those instructed into quarantine to remain in quarantine for the full 14 days (and would support this being extended to 21 days given recent examples of people testing positive after they've served their 14 day period).
I'm talking about the general population and the blanket statewide lockdown.
This is what needs to finish at 6pm Tuesday (27th, if not earlier given the lag is only 52 hours).
This morning there were 5,121 people in instructed quarantine, this number will grow as more sites come to light, but even if it doubles after today's cases doubled the total case numbers, 10,000 people in quarantine for 14 (or 21) days is strongly supported. 1.5m people in total lockdown for anything past 6pm Tuesday 27th is not supported by the science.
And yes, I don't expect the general population to go back to stage 0 restrictions, we will still see things in place, but they should be stage 2 or 3, not stage 4 (a lockdown without the title) or stage 5 (full lockdown).