SANFL GRAND FINAL PICK TREBLE WIN $50

[mal]

TERMS AND CONDITIONS
TREBLE
Any poster can submit 1 entry
Pick the 3 winners and win $50
If 2 or more posters pick the 3 winners , there will be a play off

A : EXACT MARGIN
B : FIRST GOALSCORER OF THE MATCH
C : JACK OATEY MEDAL

Very unlikely to have a winner of all 3
However , there will be bragging rights for anyone who picks 1 or more winners

My predictions
25 Points
Josh Hone
TOM Lewis


I think ST will win by 25 , keeping GL at arms length during the game
I reckon the 3rd inside 50 that ST have the ball will spill off hands and Josh to snap the first goal of the match
TOM Lewis to get this seasons double the Magarey MedAL and the JackO MedAL

[daysofourlives]

Sturt 88
McFayden
Snelling

[Booney]

A : EXACT MARGIN - Sturt 32
B : FIRST GOALSCORER OF THE MATCH - Hosie
C : JACK OATEY MEDAL - Hone 5 goals

[another grub]

I might make a hat and put on it 'Jacko'

thanks for the idea MaL

[carey]

Sturt by 38
Sam Conforti
Casey Voss

[another grub]

St 42
Giacometi
Lewis

[wenchbarwer]

Sturt 27
McBean
Snelling

[carey]

The odds on picking all 3?

Be huge I would've thought.

[beef]

A : EXACT MARGIN - Glenelg 14
B : FIRST GOALSCORER OF THE MATCH - M Allen
C : JACK OATEY MEDAL - L Reynolds

[another grub]

The odds on picking all 3?

Be huge I would've thought.

MaL does it most weeks

[mal]

The odds on picking all 3?

Be huge I would've thought.

I will answer this like a Politician

Im ineligible to win
You can win some you lose none
Grub thinks a good idea

[PatowalongaPirate]

Bays by 10pts
Bailey
J Lyons

[Trader]

The odds on picking all 3?

Be huge I would've thought.

At least 6000:1

A specific point margin in aussie rules is generally considered a 60:1 shot (Ie: bookies offer between 50 and 67s for a draw for example).
First goal scorer odds generally range from about 8s through to quite long.
Short priced favorites in norm smith betting are still usually 8s+.

Giving 60, 10 and 10 gets you 6,000:1

Now, you could counter with an argument that these events have a degree of dependency, ie: if a certain team wins, then a player from that team is more likely to pick up the medal.
Similarly, if they win by a big margin, and the medallist is a forward, the odds that that player also kicked the first goal shorten somewhat too.

In saying that, the odds the bookies offer are also shorter than they should be, so the true odds are longer.

With all that in mind, I would suggest 6,000:1 is a fair assumption of the likely odds of getting all three.