This is a big weekend for Harness Racing, with monster meetings at Mooney Valley tonight, and Albion Park on Saturday night, not to mentin Globe derby,Harold Park,Gloucester Park, Gold Coast,Ballarat and Newcastle.
I have decided to take an in depth look at the best race for the weekend, the Derby at Albion Park on Sat.night.
What a fantastic race. You would gladly own any of them. And the favourite is a genuine risk.
1...115 Atomic Ark...$8...Has done nothig but improve this season. Drawn to get the easiest run in the race, and will appreciate the distance and expected speed of this race. If he end up behind the leader, he is the best E/W bet you have ever seen. Even three back the fence won't be a major problem. I expect this horse to be a Grand Circuit horse next year. My main selection.
2...114 Permission...$16...Fifteen starts for nine wins, and he can do it at both ends. May not be the best stayer in the race, and when the pressure goes on should be found wanting. You don't need my permission to back him, but I wouldn't. Save your money, and risk him.
3...212 Advance President...$7...A classy visitor from the Shaky Isles, he should be the first horse to the fence,or in this case the pegs. He can hold the lead if he wishes, or take a sit, as he did last week behind Tip Your Hat. But, as the best place in a harness race is in front, I believe he will hold the lead. This alone gives him a major chance.\
4...401 Rising Stature...$26...A New South Wales visitor, who has been bullying the locals aroun Sydney, but will find this field far too hot. Can't Place.
5...116 Ima Fairlane...$21...Is often seen as the bridesmaid, but with 11 wins to his name, he can run a big race. Needs the speed on,which should happen, but needs to get a cart up at some stage, and that is doubtful.
6...624 After the Reckoning...$17...N.Zer, who came here with a big reputation, but a driver that is somewhat suspect. Hard to judge his form on last weeks run, where he showed no speed from the mobile. He can reckon without me.
7...133 Four Trumps...$5...The second fav.in this race. Has been monsterind good fields at Harold Park, and appears to have real depth to his ability. Drawn for a tough run, but will push forward, looking for the lead. He is the horse who will put lots of speed to this race. May come up Trumps, but I believe he will get snookered.
8...111 Tip Your Hat...#2.80...By far the best horse in this race, with 21 wins from 28 tries. You would love to own him. However, he has drawn the worst possible barrier for this horse, and Luke will be trying to get him off the fence immediately. Three or four back the fence would almost destroy his chances, so I see him going back to last, to get a clear run. Any other draw would see him start an odds on fav. Will risk him, but he is a champion.
9...022 Simon B Anvil...$17...The Victorian in the field (although he is really a NZ) but the Vics will claim anything for themselves. Has untold ability but is a real head-case. The Robert Muir of equines. Can do anything on his night. but who knows. Even he doesn't know. If you like him, take insurance.
10...117 Royal Agent...$13...Tough as Tungsten. Could be the knockout. Stays better than the mother in law. Even looks like the M.I.L. Will do it tough, but likes it like that. If he cops a three wide trail at some stage, lookout. Has won 12 races, this could be the luvky 13.
11...818 Tisaknockout...$151...The emergency. He is a good horse. Has won eight races, and like the rest of the field, has started fav. many times. In fact, they have all been odds on at some stage in their short racing life. But, this is a hot field. he would need to start five minutes before the others, and even then they would beat him home. No hope.
So, there you have it. An in depth look at a great race. And if you think this is too long, this is the form of study that the bayman has to do for every race in order to come up with some simple numbers for each and every race he looks at. This is what makes the game so fascinating.
My selections are Atomic Ark E/W, from Tip Your Hat, with Mad Dog Simon B Anvil the roughy.
Regardless, wherever you are at 7.40PM on Saturday night, make sure you catch this race. The speed will be on. They will break the 2.00 minte mile rate for the long journey. Only the fittest will be left standing. Go the Ark!!
Good luck with your punting, and enjoy the moment.