Magarey & Premiership Betting

[Punk Rooster]

[mal]

LONIE AND MASSIE still on his list.

[another grub]

yeah still on list MAL, good value too, class players who have both dominated at certain stages in the SANFL. Lonie is out to $101 now..... spewing I got on at $81 and thought that was good shopping.

[Dutchy]

interestinly their is only 2 WWT players in the top 20 in betting - surely there might be some value for a few of the other WWT players - not that I would know who they are as I havent seen enough of them

Spelly - if you read this - do you have stats for eagles players this year? e.g. possies

[Punk Rooster]

I got on C O'Sullivan (CD) at $101 (e/w)- he finsished in the top 10 in the Footy SA POTY award....

[another grub]

Dolph Williams has Cicollela over the line..... so load up there... he is in the know too.

[mal]

I got on C O'Sullivan (CD) at $101 (e/w)- he finsished in the top 10 in the Footy SA POTY award....

Check your ticket Punk it must be 10/1 not $101.
Did you have a saver on Ben Eckermann as well

[Punk Rooster]

Are you having a crack at my selection?
Do you think that a top 10 finish warrants being 100/1?
His last 2 games (all I could find in the voting) he was given BOG- we'll see how he goes, I thought he was better value than Lonie- same price, played 1 game for 1 BOG....

[mal]

Are you having a crack at my selection?
Do you think that a top 10 finish warrants being 100/1?
His last 2 games (all I could find in the voting) he was given BOG- we'll see how he goes, I thought he was better value than Lonie- same price, played 1 game for 1 BOG....

You idiot Punk, I MEANT CHECK YOUR TICKET FOR A misprint Johnny
Joketon must have given you the wrong odds the 100/1 should be 10/1

[another grub]

dont confuse him mal..... Lonie is a much better bet....

[Maddogmike]

Haha GILL will not win the Magarey - can we bet on things not to happen, if so give me $20K on that!

[Punk Rooster]

Haha GILL will not win the Magarey - can we bet on things not to happen, if so give me $20K on that!

Who suggested Gill will? Lay him on Betfair would be the way to go.

[Maddogmike]

no i mean just looking at the odds - he is 21/1 and some of the players around those odds are alot more likely to pop up and win it, but he is NO chance to WIN.

[Punk Rooster]

Now, I've had an overall look at the Magrey Medal Markets, & I've put together a chart assessing genuine chances as follows (I've used Footy SA POTY Award for a Mock-Magarey).
Use this as a rough guide to assessing whether you want to bet or not. This is subjective, as the votes were cast by various footy supporters, & not umpires (who will view things differently).
I guess what I'm saying is, let's have a look & see if we can't find some value. (Ie- if you disagree with my assessment, don't bother asking me if I want to lay it, keep it constructive!)

The 1st Price is "my" price



I have listed Jeremy Clayton as value, because according to the mock, he would win it. I however will not be rushing the $2.50. (I think he got virtually 7 BOG's =21 votes, 6 ahead of Backwell).

Mal, I don't want to here that this is flawed, there may be mistakes there, it is just my view of things.

[mal]

Very informative intelligent chart PUNKY.
If bookies were ever looking for a SANFL market assessor
they could do no worse than ECKY !

Seriously that chart and the formulation of the chart is concise
and a very accurate assesment of the players chances.
As none of us can be at every venue, it does give us an
overal insight from a wider consensus.
A very very good chart indeed.

[Ecky]

Now, I've had an overall look at the Magrey Medal Markets, & I've put together a chart assessing genuine chances as follows (I've used Footy SA POTY Award for a Mock-Magarey).

Interesting, Punk - a nice analysis. I presume you went through Spelly's table of POTY votes and converted the 5-vote system to a 3-vote system?

My comment on your odds though is that I reckon you are placing too much weight on the correctness of the POTY votes - I wouldn't have that great a difference in odds between the 9 vote and 12 vote players - all it takes is for the umpires to think differently in a single game and those players are back level again.

[mal]

ECKY considering Punky has formulated this at short notice it is
a good guide and I reckon the bugger has done well.

[Punk Rooster]

My interpratation of the data, is that I feel Clayton has it "sewn up". It really is a raffle from there on in (for minor placings).
It doesn't mean that Bayman backing Backwell @ $41 is a bad bet, but backing him @ $4 is (imo).
As I said, there's variance in the voting due to the umpires seeing it differently, but it helps re-assure me that backing O'Sullivan at $101 is not such a silly bet (in games where he got 2 or1, Gowans got "3"- Gowans is not generally a vote getter).
I put it up as a starting point for discussion, & welcome anyone elses assessment/interpretation.

[Ecky]

The one that I think will surprise by polling well, who isn't even on Thornton's list, is Justin McConnell.

He won't win it, and shouldn't win it, but he does many flashy things that the umpires would take notice of - the sort of player they will remember to give votes to on the days when they are struggling to come up with 3 names.

[Punk Rooster]

I've effectively had a crack at naming the top 15, be very keen to see how close I get with it.
Realistically, anyone not on my list would be $101 & greater imo.
McConnell did his best work in front of an umpire on Saturday