2006 Melbourne Cup

[PerceThePunter]

Folks,

Only a week, at time of writing, to the Cup, and time to put the proverbials on the line. As many of us know, it is the race that stops the nation, but often a fair few in the field that really aren't up to it.
Having said that, with such big pools, there is often real value to be found.

Saw one of the best Cup trials on Saturday, in the Moonee Valley Cup. Dolphin Jo - watch its run carefully if you get a chance. Held up midrace, looked caught on the rails on the turn, and hit the line better than anything else - including Zipping - in the field. Very promising trial, and at $81, well worth a look in the big one.

Liked the way Grand Zulu has been grinding away in its last three starts, both on pace and coming from behind. Remember, he beat Makybe Diva in 2004 before he went amiss, and its fair to say that is reasonable form in this one. At $51, excellent each way value.

Nothing wrong at all with Art Success' last two runs. Hit the line very hard in the Cranbourne Cup - generally a fair form race for the Melb. Cup - and was working home stylishly in the M.V Cup Sat also. $41 is very good odds for a horse that will get the trip, having won the 3200m Brisbane Cup this year.

Naturally, Tawqueet is very impressive and in the pink of form, but have liked On A Jeune's last three starts. 6th in the Geelong Cup, when he looked a little one-paced, but was still grinding home well. Good Cup pointer in that run also, and solid EW value at $17.

At this stage, will work around these 5 for the big one. Will cost $5 for a 1/2 unit box quinella on them, and will work out some other multiples.

We say this every single year, and yet fall into the trap - do NOT go big on the overseas raiders. Grey Swallow was tipped to be anything, and was heavily beaten Saturday. Pop Rock's and Delta Blues' runs in the Caulfield were good, but strongly suspect they will get lost around the wide expanses of Flemington. Really far too uncertain about Yeats' form against some of these, and absolutely NOT AT ALL at $5.50 - remember Oscar Schindler/Drum Taps/Double Trigger/Mamool...do I keep going on? If I was forced into an overseas horse, take a good look at Mandela. Very authoritative win in the Geelong Cup, and it was only 4 years ago that a horse took out both Geelong and Melb Cups.

Let's put them on the line, folks!

[Punk Rooster]

The Mad One's right, Mandella hasn't gained a run yet- not sure how these things are worked out, but I like it, as I liked On A Jeune last year, due to Geelong Cup form. Guess I would back On A Jeune again, in the absence of Mandella.

[Punk Rooster]

link regarding all you need to know about the Melb Cup (requires Adobe Acrobat Reader)

http://www.racingvictoria.net.au/images ... -10-06.pdf

[SCD]

link regarding all you need to know about the Melb Cup (requires Adobe Acrobat Reader)

http://www.racingvictoria.net.au/images ... -10-06.pdf

Also - anyone interested in Derby day (the premier day of racing in the land) - Noms are in the link below, including the SAAB noms, which is an important lead up race for those low in the order of entry

http://www.ozracing.net.au/cgi-bin/rsb/ ... GN?State=V

[PerceThePunter]

Geelong Cup holds up very well as a Melb Cup formline, thinking of Media Puzzle in 02 and On A Jeune last year at least.

[scoob]

She's archie in 2003 also perce, good formline in recent times.

[another grub]

a few may have run placings from the Geelong Cup... but I dont think it will provide any placegetter this year.... The visitors are in this race and a couple of the favs are classes above anything that went round at Geelong.... OAJ will be strong at the end of th 2 miles and is the only one to consider for a drum.....

[Frosty]

Has the Vic Derby winner ever backed up to win the Melbourne Cup?

Reason I ask is that the TAB have a fixed price bet on the Melbourne Cup with the winner of the Vic Derby (whatever horse it is) paying $71 to win the big race. Seeing those odds I figure the Derby/MC double is rarely done or they wouldn't be offering $71 for any horse that wins the Derby to also win the Cup.

Any thoughts?

[Dutchy]

it wasnt sure of running in the derby until this week and if it does win it will be worth $$$$$$$$ so i would seriously doubt it would run in the cup hence the odds quoted....

[scoob]

1 from recent times i think was Arena, won the derby and then backed up in the cup ran midfield i believe. the derby is the 'grand final' for the 3yo's, a melbourne cup would be somewhat of an after thought.

[another grub]

sorry dutchy... efficiant wont be winning the Melb Cup..... lets have a look what it beat today.................ABSOLUTLY NOTHING..... and they were ultra tired at the end and it flattered his performance.......... he looks a nice type BUT wont be winning on Tuesday!!!!!!!!!!

[Dutchy]

sorry dutchy... efficiant wont be winning the Melb Cup..... lets have a look what it beat today.................ABSOLUTLY NOTHING..... and they were ultra tired at the end and it flattered his performance.......... he looks a nice type BUT wont be winning on Tuesday!!!!!!!!!!

would be interested in its time compared to other years, noting the track was dead today....well Ive backed it at $11- only for it to come straight into $7-, Ill probably LAY it closer to Tuesday to g'tee a profit....

[another grub]

Great thinking to lay it..... if you have overs already..... You seem an astute punter dutchy?? do you make good money out of the punt???

[PerceThePunter]

Of the 6 I originally mentioned at the top of the preview, 5 will getting a run in the big one: Tawqueet ($5.00 eq. favorite), On A Jeune ($21), Mandella ($26), Art Success($51), Dolphin Jo ($101). Will box the 5 in a quinella, for the 1/2 unit of $5.

Have put just the $5 each way on Dolphin Jo on fixed odds - while it will have to create history and be the first horse ever from barrier 18 to salute, feel it can run into a place at nice odds. Really like the run last week and looks like the extra 700m could suit. Will work out the best way to place the others for a profit situation!

[mighty_tiger_79]

the 5 horses that i have come up with at the moment are pretty obvious

1 - yeats
4 - tawqeet
5 - geordieland am really keen on this horse
23 - maybe better
24 - efficient

[Booney]

Im going Pop Rock the win,($9 fixed odds).

So--1 -- Pop Rock
2 -- Tawqeet
3 -- Demerger
4 -- Mandela

Will be my box Trifecta.Hey,one of those races that anything can come home 2nd or 3rd.

[heater31]

righto might as well declare my hand for tommorrow,


2 Tawqeet WIN
11 On a Juene EACH WAY

[Dissident]

I have money on GEORGDIELAND each way

[scoob]

worst race all year to have a punt on but as an interest will have a bit on Yeats (slow-medium pace race will help) and Onajeune (faster the pace the better, 15mm overnight would also be handy)

[mal]

Best horse YEATS wins unless home sick.
This is an ordinary field by cup standards.