Greyhounds This Week

[Dutchy]

Thanks Oaks got some good results there

[Oaksnaf]

Race 8

5 FABRICE BALE $2.66
4 DYNA FORTE $3.28
7 STORM DAMAGED $11.62
3 JOSEPH BALE $12.91
1 ARIES $14.35
8 ELITE YIPPEE $21.87
6 DAWNS SPIRIT $41.15
9 SISCO BLUES $62.71

Bit late on this one as forgot to post.

[Dutchy]

Race 8

5 FABRICE BALE $2.66
4 DYNA FORTE $3.28
7 STORM DAMAGED $11.62
3 JOSEPH BALE $12.91
1 ARIES $14.35
8 ELITE YIPPEE $21.87
6 DAWNS SPIRIT $41.15
9 SISCO BLUES $62.71

Bit late on this one as forgot to post.

First 3 in exact order!

Hope you cleaned up, just saw this as they jumped!

[Oaksnaf]

Yeah sorry about that Dutchy. Didn't realise that I hadn't posted the selections.

Had a huge slice at Fabrice Bale. So a nice way to end the night.

[mighty_tiger_79]

bloody hell

gotta love a result like that when your fav wins at $8+

sensational

[Oaksnaf]

Top Ratings

Races 50
Winners 20
Return $61.40

OVERLAYS
Races 23
Winners 10
Return $43.10


This is the part that becomes important. We know how to pick winners with a 40% s/r so far this year. But we must realise what races are the right ones to bet on. And how do we bet on them. Mind you, these overlay odds are only based on TAB odds. We have betfair to play with. And those stats are through the roof. But we have to be realistic. We cannot always place a bet with betfair......... unless we run a BOT.

We can also look at our LAY BETS. 50 races. 0 winners. 3 placings. for our worst ratings.



But if we are betting with the TAB, or IAS, Sportingbet. How do we know if we are going to get OVERLAYS?

Well in the cases where the odds are close and in the last 30 seconds the odds move violantly and your waiting for refreshing and miss placing a bet when the odds tick over into OVERS. Then don't stress. Use betfair. In the cases where you can't use betfair. Stress....... and use your own ability to predict the market. We will also bet +-% of our odds too. You can't ignore a $3.60 chance, because it starts at $3.50.

But you also need to understand that there is a big difference between $2.00 and $1.70. I am less willing to compromise price around the $2 price-range.

In our most confident races: Based on the points that are assigned according to the market.

166 points is our best race... 398 points is our worst. Basically this shows that we believe the race is clear cut and has clear results.

Our results based on these points see's:

166 - Top 2 run Quin
168- Top 3 run Trifecta.... order 1st - 3rd - 2nd in ratings (7th gets 4th)
187 - Top 3 run Trifecta.... order 1st - 3rd- 2nd in ratings (5th gets 4th)
192 - Top rating wins.... UNDERS

As you can see we are quite accurate in these races. That is why, based on the points is my suggested bet type. The more open the race a quinella. The more clear cut. A trifecta.

Have a good S/R and everynow and then you will hit the OVERLAYS in exotics and cash in.

We hope.....



If we can keep track of these kind of results and understand which races are profitable at which bet type and why. Then that is only going to improve our punting skills. Because that is what is most important. If your good at form analysis and bad at punting. Your doomed. Really doomed. If your bad at form analysis but good at punting. Then your going well.

But if your good at form analysis and good at punting. Then your laughing. And that is what we try and aim for.




It's easy to write about your winners. So lets write about the losers.

Once again my second selection struggles immensly. 6/50 winners returning $15.60.


Last year during our trial period.

2nd selection:
714 races
136 winners
$566.10


There is something horribly wrong here with the way I analyse the race. Maybe I am looking at the form the wrong way. I am trying to find the first loser. And if they can't win. Then why am I rating them 2nd?

Where the 3rd/4th selections

3rd"

Races 715
Wins 100
$652.00

4th:
Races 718
Wins 92
$716.80

That is a huge difference. Is it because these are the smokey greyhounds that you see having a winning chance within reason?

They seem to be the better option from the.... 2nd best greyhound. Maybe that is because of the UNDERS that these 2nd favourites represent. Arn't they the first runners the punters back to beat the favourite?




If your actually still reading. Do you have any ideas/advice on how to approach the selection process mentally when your trying to find "2nd". Because I am doing something wrong here to some extent.

[mighty_tiger_79]

a good in depth summary there Oaksy and yes i just scraped through it

it all depends on how you rate a race?

do you do your selections based on the 4 best winning hopes?

or do you base your selections around dogs that cant win but can place?

[Oaksnaf]

Each race is rated differently. And the major influence to the decision making in each race can differ. Things like Track/Distance record and box are important. You have to give boxes 1,8 an extra length in their ability based on the stats. But then you need to compare against their own stats. Something I mess up. Perfect example... Bogie Thunder tonight at Geelong. I thought would clear the field. WRONG!!

I try and place the order of the greyhounds based on a combination of Best Suited/Best greyhound.

More often than not. The top rater will be the best suited greyhound. Like Fabrice Bale tonight. Best greyhound in that race was #4. But it was far from suited.
Easy to say after the race. But yeah.


Mainly my bottom 3 are the greyhounds I think CANT WIN.

[mighty_tiger_79]

well im about to study the quaddie races for the meadows

[mighty_tiger_79]

Meadows Quaddies

5 4 1 4 $3.13
5 4 1 5 $1.81
2 4 1 4 $1.66
5 2 1 4 $1.65
5 4 1 2 $1.65
5 1 1 4 $1.48
5 4 1 1 $1.48
5 4 4 4 $1.35
1 4 1 4 $1.35
5 8 1 4 $1.23
5 4 3 4 $1.09
3 4 1 4 $1.09
2 4 1 5 $0.96
5 2 1 5 $0.95
7 4 1 4 $0.88
2 2 1 4 $0.88
2 4 1 2 $0.88
5 2 1 2 $0.87
5 1 1 5 $0.86
2 1 1 4 $0.79
2 4 1 1 $0.79
5 1 1 2 $0.78
5 2 1 1 $0.78
5 4 4 5 $0.78
1 4 1 5 $0.78
2 4 4 4 $0.72
5 8 1 5 $0.71
5 4 4 2 $0.71
5 2 4 4 $0.71
1 2 1 4 $0.71
1 4 1 2 0 $0.71
5 1 1 1 $0.70
5 5 1 4 $0.65
2 8 1 4 $0.65
5 8 1 2 $0.65
5 1 4 4 $0.64
5 4 4 1 $0.64
1 1 1 4 $0.64
1 4 1 1 $0.64
5 4 3 5 $0.63
3 4 1 5 $0.63
5 8 1 1 $0.58
2 4 3 4 $0.58
1 4 4 4 $0.58
5 2 3 4 $0.57
5 4 3 2 $0.57
3 2 1 4 $0.57
5 8 4 4 $0.53
1 8 1 4 $0.53
5 1 3 4 $0.52
5 4 3 1 $0.52
3 1 1 4 $0.52
3 4 1 1 $0.52
7 4 1 5 $0.51
2 2 1 5 $0.51

[mighty_tiger_79]

CHANGED my quaddie bank to $100 and included those down to a min 50c combo which is a total of 56

[mighty_tiger_79]

MEADOWS race 5

5 - $2.59
2 - $4.88
1 - $6.02
3 - $7.44
7 - $9.18

RACE 6

4 - $2.60
2 - $4.90
1 - $5.44
8 - $6.72
5 - $12.64

RACE 7

1 - $1.78
4 - $4.10
3 - $5.10

race 8

4 - $2.60
5 - $4.40
2 - $4.90
1 - $5.44

[Oaksnaf]

GOod luck tonight Mighty Tiger.

The Meadows Race 2

1 MILITANT RAIN $3.13
8 EAGAN BALE $4.77
2 WHY NOT NICK $6.54
5 PROVEN VINTAGE $7.27
6 CALM PRESENCE $13.68
7 DYNA FLETCHER $18.76
4 FAST FORWARD $35.30
3 CALLIGNEE $39.22

Quinella

[rooburger]

Just a thought.
with some of the selections maybe any 2's can come into play.
or maybe the double rover trifecta.

[Oaksnaf]

The Meadows Race 3

8 DEMONSTRATE $3.62
3 JODY JONES $4.97
6 SURE COOL $7.57
7 COOPER BALE $8.41
1 GO WILD FLEP $10.38
5 TALON BALE $14.24
2 RITUALS $15.82
4 ENZO BALE $24.11


Quinella bet.

This is an interesting race based on the amount of speed from boxes 1,6 in the early stages. In the perfect world Sure Cool can't run anything better than 30.20 at Meadows as just struggles in the final 50-60m big time. Even with a first split of 5.04 (flying) she couldn't hold onto win. #8 Demonstrate can begin well and will have plenty of room on the inside to move with 1,6 leading. Should be stronger in the finish than these and all things considering will be HUGE overs.

Jody Jones is the danger as might be the one who gets the sit on the rails. From there she can muster up in the middle stages and boot underneath Rituals to take the lead.

Cooper Bale is the main concern. Should win this, but in reality isn't the best suited.

[Oaksnaf]

Just a thought.
with some of the selections maybe any 2's can come into play.
or maybe the double rover trifecta.

I have never looked at Any 2's Rooburger.

And am obviously unsure of how to play them or stake them.

If you have any suggestions on that, it would be appreciated then I can look into them.

[Oaksnaf]

The Meadows Race 4

1 PURE TASTE $2.67
7 NELLY BALE $4.07
5 POT THANKS CORK $9.45
10 BERNIE BEETROOT $10.50
9 PHELAN READY $12.97
4 COLD ALCATRAZ $19.76
6 KULU BUNYIP $30.12
8 FAST BOND $56.67

Exacta race.

[Oaksnaf]

The Meadows Race 5

2 PRINCE FUSER $3.01
6 JEDDY BOY $5.10
5 INFURIATION $6.29
7 FIRE SALE $10.66
1 KADER BALE $13.16
3 JOSHUA ALLEN $14.62
8 KIER MARIA $22.28
4 TEARAWAY BALE $33.96

[Dutchy]

The Meadows Race 3

8 DEMONSTRATE $3.62
3 JODY JONES $4.97
6 SURE COOL $7.57
7 COOPER BALE $8.41
1 GO WILD FLEP $10.38
5 TALON BALE $14.24
2 RITUALS $15.82
4 ENZO BALE $24.11


Quinella bet.

This is an interesting race based on the amount of speed from boxes 1,6 in the early stages. In the perfect world Sure Cool can't run anything better than 30.20 at Meadows as just struggles in the final 50-60m big time. Even with a first split of 5.04 (flying) she couldn't hold onto win. #8 Demonstrate can begin well and will have plenty of room on the inside to move with 1,6 leading. Should be stronger in the finish than these and all things considering will be HUGE overs.

Jody Jones is the danger as might be the one who gets the sit on the rails. From there she can muster up in the middle stages and boot underneath Rituals to take the lead.

Cooper Bale is the main concern. Should win this, but in reality isn't the best suited.

Pretty spot on with the assessment Oaksy, 6 was gone on the turn

[Oaksnaf]

Race 6

2 SAME CONSQUENCE $4.34
4 SILENT GUARDIAN $4.82
5 OCTANE SHOW $5.36
3 OLGA DOLL $6.62
1 SURFING BOY $10.08
7 KATIES TEARS $18.97
8 VIOLET CRUMBLE $21.08
6 ALLEN SHAUL $39.67



Non exotic race this one. Just too hard to predict.
Try and find some nice PLACE BET overs on our top selection. Want $2.