The Big "C"

[Frosty]

Just reflecting on the Spring tipping competition and the number of roughies that filled the placings I considered what criteria I'd used to pick my horses. After Valedictum came third paying $13.80 I recalled the only reason I gave it a chance was that it had a "C" in the form column, i.e. (won at distance and at track).

So for a bit of fun I checked every race in Australia today (Sunday 12/11) for horses with a "C" in the form. Not surprisingly a number of horses with the "C" either won or ran a place today. I won't publish them all but some of the dividends paid are as follows;

SR 4 NO.11 won and paid $11.50 and $3.00
SR 6 No.9 won and paid $11.80 and $3.10
SR 7 No.6 came third and paid $3.70 the place
MR 9 No.7 came third and paid $5.00 the place
AR 3 No.6 came third and would have paid $5.80 had there been a third dividend
AR 4 No.2 won and Paid $5.60 and $1.80
AR 6 No.7 came second and paid $6.60 the place
PR 7 No.4 won and paid $11.20 and $5.00

Any investment of equal value to win and place on every horse with a "C" in the form would have netted a positive result. By my calculations a $2 e/w bet on 31 horses in total would have cost $124 but returned $157.70 for the day. A small profit but a profit nonetheless.

I will be watching this closely over the next week or two to see whether this continues and perhaps formulate a betting system of my own - stay tuned.

[another grub]

good luck with it frosty... plenty of systems out there....
there would be plenty of old hacks going around that won at the track and distance earlier in their careers.....

My mate swears by backing topweights until they win at each metropolitan meeting.... eg... Race 1 no 1 win..... if it goes under double up on race 2 no 1..... if it goes under double up again on race 3 #1..... ect.. until one WINS then you stop betting at that venue....

Check last Saturdays results to see how he would have gone??/

[Dutchy]

sounds interesting Frosty - might be best to try it for just a place or on a 1/4 staking system. then you dont have to rely so much on them winning.

An interesting track to research would be Mooney Valley, many good horses fail there at their first start (Racing to win)...I remember one recent meeting the first 3 in the market on one race had never run a place there so I layed them all on BF not to run a place and they all duely ran down the track.

Some horses dont seem to like to accelerate around corners and once in the straight its not long enough for them to balance up and run on.

[Frosty]

NR Race 6 No.8 won and paid $17.50 the win and $4.20 the place
NR Race 6 No.9 was unplaced
VR Race 5 No.3 was unplaced

They were the only horses with a "C" but using the $2 e/w method again it would have cost $12.00 and returned $43.40.

Another win for the system......stay tuned

[Punk Rooster]

why doin't you invest $2 each way on these horses? Once you build a bank, switch to a % of your bank, see how you go (start a new thread called "Frosty's Drip" or "Frosty's C System"

[mal]

By golly Frosty I thnk your on to something.

[Frosty]

QR Race 3 No. 3 ran 2nd paid $1.90 the place
QR Race 3 No. 5 won the race and paid $2.00 the win and $1.30 the place
QR Race 4 No. 5 was unplaced
QR Race 5 No.'s 3,4 were unplaced but 8 came second and paid $2.60 the place
QR Race 7 No.'s 3 and 9 were unplaced
NR Race 7 No. 9 was unplaced
NR Race 8 No. 4 came third and paid $2.30
NR Race 8 No. 13 won and paid $6.10 the win and $2.40 the place
NR Race 8 No. 11 was unplaced
VR Race 6 No. 2 and 5 were unplaced
VR Race 6 No. 4 won and paid $7.30 the win and $2.40 the place

Total outlay of $60 - 15 horses @ $2 e/w
Total return $56.40 so minus $3.60 for the day but still in front overall

[Frosty]

Won't bore everyone with the details but there were 20 runners with the "C" meaning an investment of $80.

6 of the 20 won and another 6 placed giving a winning % of 30% and a place return of 60%.

Unfortunately, most of the winers and placegetters were at short odds meaning a return of $68.20.

A loss of $11.80 for the day.

I am not looking at races in South Africa, Hong Kong or NZ as part of this - only Australian courses.

Onto tomorrow......

[Frosty]

Another ordinary day with only 10 eligible runners so an outlay of $40

1 winner and 4 place dividends with a return of $25.40

Still slightly up for the week - I haven't lost hope yet.

Cheers

[mal]

Win Draw or Lose thanks for this insight Frosty.
I incorporate the BIG C in my little system which I shall
share with all of you as its a December- March system.

[Frosty]

Friday and Saturday have combined for a substantial loss betting on every "C" horse in all races.

However, a number of very good dividends still were gained including one winner that paid $22.60/$5.10 in race 5 @ Toowoomba today.

While I still think there is some merit in backing horses that have run the distance at the track it's not financially viable to back every single one of them. So the system needs a bit of tweaking and an ounce of luck before being put into practise.

What that is I'm not sure yet - any ideas.........??

[mal]

Friday and Saturday have combined for a substantial loss betting on every "C" horse in all races.

However, a number of very good dividends still were gained including one winner that paid $22.60/$5.10 in race 5 @ Toowoomba today.

While I still think there is some merit in backing horses that have run the distance at the track it's not financially viable to back every single one of them. So the system needs a bit of tweaking and an ounce of luck before being put into practise.

What that is I'm not sure yet - any ideas.........??

For sheer consistency
distances between 1300 to 1600 m
horse must be 3rd up or more in its preperation
must have had its last run between 7-21 days

a few steps that might work

[mighty_tiger_79]

if you go for races over 1600m, i suggest the break needed between runs is 15 days or less and from 1600m onwards allow 400m up and 200m down. as most horses go from a 1600m race upto a 2000m race.

[mal]

if you go for races over 1600m, i suggest the break needed between runs is 15 days or less and from 1600m onwards allow 400m up and 200m down. as most horses go from a 1600m race upto a 2000m race.

1300m -1600m

I like to back horses that go up no more than 200m in distance
And dont back horses going back in distance[maybe -100m is ok]

[mighty_tiger_79]

if you go for races over 1600m, i suggest the break needed between runs is 15 days or less and from 1600m onwards allow 400m up and 200m down. as most horses go from a 1600m race upto a 2000m race.

1300m -1600m

I like to back horses that go up no more than 200m in distance
And dont back horses going back in distance[maybe -100m is ok]

MAL

would you restrict your system to races upto 1600m?

im saying that if you cover all races, the general progression for horses is once they get to 1600m and beyond they generally go up 400m.

i allow horses going back 200m but no more.

I also have a rule that horses racing upto 1600m must be racing within 21 days and then 15 days for races that are 1600m+

we need our HORSE RACING EXPERTS!!!!!!

AG where are you??????

[Frosty]

The thing is though that quite often distance horses will start out a campaign over 1400 or 1600m in preparation for races up to 2500m or higher. Have a look at the first race in Spring Makybe Diva was in leading up to the Melbourne Cup over the past few years. She won the Memsie Stakes over 1400m on 27/8/05 as an example.

I used to love backing Schillaci years ago because you knew that any race from 1000m to 1200m was in the bag. One day the connections decided to run him over 1400m and despite my fears I backed him. He still won by a length. Two weeks later they ran him at 1500m and despite my fears again I backed him and he won by a half head. However, there was no way they would possibly run him at 1600m or further.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that the 1500 to 1600m races are a bit of a lottery because you have the possibility of a mixture of horses in the races for different reasons.

Thanks for your input though guys - I'm taking all the information I can get into consideration.

Cheers