Greyhounds This Week

[Oaksnaf]

Traralgon Race 3 Maiden LAW.... #2 ROUNDABOUT is the TIP #2-4.

[mighty_tiger_79]

traralgon race 9

fora small interest box up 138 and something win on each

[mighty_tiger_79]

traralgon

race 10 - 6 will be slowish out, but given a clear run down the back straight can run into the placings

[Oaksnaf]

Will have to go through these Traralgon tips that we are doing carefuly to see what matches up.

Traralgon Race 4

3 NORMAL LIKE YOU $2.79
2 SALOON LAD $3.44
1 HARRYS ABBY $8.00
6 GAELIC ASSASSIN $9.88
5 DOUBLE JUMP $13.55
7 JALEENA WYZEE $47.99
9 RUNS ALRIGHT $59.24
4 CANOOGE $73.14

279-Exacta

[mighty_tiger_79]

GEELONG

1 - 2

3 - very poor race but we will have an interest on the 2

4 - 2 - should be going close

5 - 1 in very good form, not much in this field that will stop it

7 - 2 looks a solid ew selection, the 5 has been racing in better grades but prepared to risk

8 - 1 has won in good time at Angle Park and raced in good grade, the 5 looks the danger

9 - 8 loves it out wide

11 - 2 PLACE ONLY

12 - 5 looks like it should lead these fairly comfortably

[Oaksnaf]

Traralgon Race 5

7 GEORGIES HAND $2.34
4 DANIELLA $5.44
1 KID SNOWBALL $7.46
6 BLACK TURBO $11.37
3 HEZA GAMBLE $12.63
8 BLACK CHARISMA $21.40
2 FLYING PERRY $40.26
10 DR JEDD $61.36

234-Exacta

[Oaksnaf]

Traralgon Race 6

6 ITS A NEVEELK $2.66
7 HOLY MOLEY $4.06
8 LIGHT THEM UP $9.42
1 PERFECT TIME $11.63
5 OUR TYLER ROSE $12.93
4 STANHILL MACCA $15.96
9 DR SLIPSTREAM $21.89

266-Exacta

[mighty_tiger_79]

Traralgon Race 5

7 GEORGIES HAND $2.34
4 DANIELLA $5.44
1 KID SNOWBALL $7.46
6 BLACK TURBO $11.37
3 HEZA GAMBLE $12.63
8 BLACK CHARISMA $21.40
2 FLYING PERRY $40.26
10 DR JEDD $61.36

234-Exacta

BINGO

4 FROM 7

[mighty_tiger_79]

traralgon race 9

fora small interest box up 138 and something win on each

NOT EVEN close

[Oaksnaf]

Cranbourne tonight.

Lets consider the basics.

2009 stats across all distances:

Percentage of favourites that win:
No. of favourites that win - 36.34%
No. of 2nd favourites that win - 20.56%
No. of 3rd favourites that win - 16.48%
No. with longest odds that win - 2.65%
Position of winners at first section:

Winners leading at first section - 51.15%
Winners 2nd at first section - 22.02%
Winners 3rd at first section - 11.54%
Winners 4th or worse at first section - 15.29%


The best boxes in order for 520m are:

8-2-1-7-4-3-6-5

Box 8 is clear top pick at Cranbourne.


The trend at Crabourne lately has seen Boxes 5,6,7 having DOUBLE the success against 2,3,4 boxes.


Winning splits over 520m have ranged from 5.33 to 5.68 this year.
311 is 9.53 to 9.87

Top 10 Quickets first splits converting to wins.
520m 6/10
311 7/10

This proves that in a race where there is a CLEAR leader, it is hard to run them down.

Over the 311m BOX 1 has a massive conversion rate from Leading at First Split to winning. Find a clear leader from Box 1 and its all over red rover.

Interestingly over 520m Box 8 is favoured by slow beginners, as moderate beginners have trouble crossing the field by the first bend and are then stuck out wide.

On the other end of the spectrum. The more interesting box... Box 6 has a 100% conversion rate from leading at first split to winning in 2010. yes it is a small sample.

Box 2 has the worst conversion rate.



These are relatively simple.



Lets look to the maiden races. Remember the peak performances and the patten of racing. In maiden races it is also extra difficult to score from the middle boxes. But we must also take into consideration the racing pattern of the surrounding runners.


Cranbourne Race 1
#3 ADDICTIVE KING is the TIP
#3-5

If I was to rate this race. My ratings in order would look like:

3-5-4-8-1-7-6-2


If you can find anything over $4 on the TOP 3 selections, then there is a bet to be had.



The way we see this race:

Box 1..........news suggests that market wont reflect ability
Box 2..........Racing experience says has had enough chances - slow out
Box 3..........Gets best chance to return to peak. Leads the field.
Box 4.......... Inconsistent who can begin, bad box for this.
Box 5.......... Gets perfect sit off rails when goes straight.
Box 6..........Irradic at start,
Box 7..........Finds it hard to race with no room, squeezed
Box 8.........Cannot cross. Stays wide early. Avoids trouble.

[Oaksnaf]

If you were looking at the first splits and leaders for Maidens at Cranbourne, Race 2 #5 was a clear selection, pinged the lids at Sale recently in above average winning split time.

Looking at peak performance patterns.

Cranbourne Race 4

#1 Consistent and peaking recently. Fantastic box. LAW
#2 Peaking. Won't LAW.
#3 Will be value if returns to peak jumping ability as is returning to form.
#4 Trial dog
#6 Peaked 2 months ago. Runs at Healesville have regained confidence. But needs luck as wont lead.
#7 Peaking at the right time.
#8 Well below peak.

#1-3-2-7 on peaked ability.

Take that into consideration and #1 becomes a clear top pick.

No doubt about the money for Chainsaw. But just won't win this in my opinion. Has 3 others to cross by the bend, and wont get room on outside from 7 who is peaking. #8 wont cause a problem.

[Oaksnaf]

For Race 5 there is one major thing you need to assess. Will Pub Fund cross these and lead by 1l at the bend. If you believe so. Should want $2.50-$2.80.

If your not sure that Pub Fund will lead, forget about him, as wins as often as he places.

[Oaksnaf]

Sometimes you just have to accept a loss due to bad luck.

Cranbourne Race 5

#8-6-3-1-2

This is a race with a clear leader in my opinion. Suited by box 8 at Cranbourne 520m and enjoys racing on the bunny.

Pub Fund is about 4 lengths in front by the home bend. #3,6 are the late chargers while #1 is moderate throughout the duration of the race as has found some recent form. Don't look at the times though, thats not much of an indication.

The way to bet this race. Stand-out the 8 in all exotics.

1,3,6 for 2nd. 1,2,3,5,6 for 3rd/4th.

Box 1,2,3,6 in exotics too. As if 8 doesn't win. Does nothing this race as too many stronger finishers.


We want $2.26 for Pub Fund.

[Oaksnaf]

Cranbourne Race 6

We will go for a simple quin/exacta/trifecta bets involving

#2 GEORGIE MYLES @ $1.50
#6 BOBS DUN ROAMIN
#2 CAPTAIN MAXWELL

[Oaksnaf]

Cranbourne Race 11

#3 JIMMY ELITE
#7 TEXAPHIRE
#1 TRAMIGO
#5 WAFFER THIN

Base exotics around OVERS >>>> Tramigo/Jimmy Elite.

[Oaksnaf]

Other Brother is huge UNDERS in this race. Am trying to lay on betfair.

[Oaksnaf]

Race 12 ~ Roving Value exotics

#4 PARTOS SIMBA
#2 BAT BOY
#7 COVER UP
#8 WISH OF WISDOM


2,4 can lead this field. 7,8 can cause drama for the hot favourite. Flat Battery does need luck and room early.

There will be a squeeze this race from 5,6,7. Insides get advantage, 1 misses the kick. 2 gets look at rails and is ok in finish. 3 finds trouble and gets lost. 4 pings and sits in front LAW. 5 moderate, 6 gets squashed into 3,5. 7 charges across. 8 stuck wide but clears.

#4 PARTOS SIMBA is the OVERS here.

[Oaksnaf]

Trouble went the wrong way and the 7 went straight. Loss!

The markets are only going to get stranger and stranger throughout the year. But we are still returning $98.50 on each race at S-TAB odds.

[Dutchy]

Do you like the short races Oaks? I find them more of a raffle

[Oaksnaf]

Do you like the short races Oaks? I find them more of a raffle

The more of a raffle it is for the normal punter, the better it is for those who have the extra knowledge.

For all races this year up to 450m. I am returning $109 per race in backing every selection in the market.

The idea for the sprint races is to look at peak performance history and their age and then compare recent first splits against the average winning first splits for those tracks/meetings. Watch the video's and disregard any races with major trouble. Then look at box characteristics and compare them against the Track/Distance box stats.