Liberals to win - Newspoll

[redandblack]

Looks like it's heading for a Redmond win.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010 ... 851310.htm

[dedja]

I don't think so ...

A uniform swing is extremely misleading which is how those polls work.

Labor has to lose 5 seats for a hung parliament and the libs have to gain 10 seats for an outright majority.

If you breakdown the seats one by one it seems almost impossible for the Libs to attain those 10 seats. Take Norwood for example, not withstand the polls, that will be extremely hard for the Liberals to take. Add in the extremely dumb decisions to run Draper and Scalzi and the chance to win outright is gone.

Plus add the fact that the Libs have campaigned so hard in Mitchell that Hanna may end up third which would give Labor that seat on preferences ... how dumb a strategy is that?

Most smart political pundits are expecting a very slim Labor majority or hung parliament and I'd agree.

[CK]

Had a very lengthy debate on this yesterday with some political followers.

I don't see Norwood going at this stage. While there may be a swing against Cicarello, it is still hard core ALP heartland (not so much demographic, as previous trend), and can't see this falling.

ALP must have been thrilled to hear that the Liberals were running Joe Scalzi in Hartley, as this seat would have been of grave concern to them. Grace Portolesi has done a sound job here but was considered a chance to fall. Running Scalzi has taken some real alternative away here - Hartley to stay.

Antony Green differs with me on this one, but I see Mount Gambier staying Independent, just a different member. By all accounts, Don Pegler has run a very good campaign there and may sneak over the line with preferences.

Agreed on the Mitchell analysis. dedja. My feeling is it will JUST stay with Hanna but if not, then an ALP win on preferences. It may have almost been worth the Liberals putting heavier campaigning elsewhere here due to overall impact.

Suspect that Light and Morialta to change hands; not certain about Mawson, gut feel is that Bignell may just hold on here. It may seem totally unfathomable, and is the proverbial 100/1 shot, but I have watched Kavel over the years - having lived there for a long time - with interest, and wonder about that one becoming a lot more marginal tonight. Goldsworthy has been next to invisible this campaign, and in the last few elections, the seat's changing demographic has shown signs that voters are willing to investigate change here, with Family First, Independent (Tom Playford Jnr in 2002) and Greens polling well in the area in the past. I wonder if there is any real fall in the primary vote for Liberal, whether this one could take a while tonight and could even, in a stunning shock, fall overall.

Won't be surprised to see Chaffey take a long time to call either. Maywald to JUST get home here after a huge fight, I would think.

Overall, see ALP returning and governing in its own right tonight, with 24 seats.

[dedja]

Agree with most of that CK ... which I think aids my point about the Libs (I think) impossible task of gaining an absolute majority.

Their only hope is for a successful negotiation after a hung parliament and they can't count on Hanna (if he wins) ... even though he is so despised in Labor circles.

Interestingly, in the Tassie election, with the Hare-Clark system, in the event of a hung parliament, both major parties have indicated that they would support the notion that the party with the most seats, or in the event of a tie (say 10 seats each with the Greens on 5), that the party with the most votes should be allowed to form a minority government.

In my mind there is little doubt that Labor will have more seats than the Libs, but in the case of a hung parliament that will not automatically translate to a minority government.

[redandblack]

I'd generally agree with that analysis, CK, apart from one or two seats.

A Newspoll showing 52% Liberal can't be discounted, however, unless:

1 Newspoll is way out - quite possible.

2 The swings are largest in safe ALP or Liberal seats - also quite possible.

I'm not so sure about Norwood. It's only on a relatively small margin, despite a landslide last election and I'm also not sure Vinnie is still a universally popular candidate.

Whether Mt Gambier is a Liberal win or an independent doesn't make much difference, as the independent would side with the Liberals?

I think Rann is going to need some luck with the anti-ALP swing placement.