How long before Vickie Chapman challenges Isobel Redmond?

[dedja]

I think the result of the election is beyond doubt now which is a return of the labor government ... just.

I think it is also universally acknowledged that Isobel Redmond did a great job in this election campaign.

But despite all that, I'm willing to make a small wager that Vickie Chapman won't be able to help herself and try to spill for the leadership at some stage in the short-mid term.

[fish]

Yes she may well challenge but she will lose...

Comprehensively!!

[dedja]

Yes she may well challenge but she will lose...

Comprehensively!!

Correctamundo ...

[GWW]

I don't think Chapman is electable at an election to become Premier. Redmond is much more down to earth and I think would make a much better opposition leader.

I think Chapman would be best to wait a year or 2 to see if Redmond stuffs something up, otherwise if she challenges early and spends the majority of the term as Opposition Leader and gets smashed at the next election, then she'll get no further opportunity.

[redandblack]

She can't and won't.

The result is a credit to Redmond.

[zipzap]

She will but she'd be a fool to do it in the short term. She'll wait her chance...whether she gets one though will be her only gamble

[Dogwatcher]

Redmond, so the polls show us, wasn't quite ready.
However, she did a fantastic job in this campaign and may have been let down in the last 48 hours. Her earthiness resonated with the public.
Being the Libs, I have no doubt she will be challenged at some point.

[Gozu]

The thing was if she actually was ready they wouldn't have needed to tell us.

[Dogwatcher]

Interesting summation...

[Sojourner]

What was interesting about Isobel Redmond was the margin that she was elected by in her own seat which increased quite dramatically, which along with the 7% swing to the Liberal party in general suggests that she is the favoured candidate for leader of the Libs.

[mick]

I hope not, Redmond has performed, she deserves to stay. All I can ay is despite the Rann govt. is likelly to be returned, hopeless members by anyones measure like Lomax Smith, Cicarello annd Maywald have been defeated

[southee]

And Foley and Rann....mmm...how long people???

[Dogwatcher]

I would disagree Maywald was a hopeless member.
I will say she was damned if she did and damned if she didn't.
A tough call she has made and it has bitten her in this election.

[dedja]

LOL, this is about the stupidity of Vickie Chapman ...

Everyone else seemed to get that.

[mick]

I would disagree Maywald was a hopeless member.
I will say she was damned if she did and damned if she didn't.
A tough call she has made and it has bitten her in this election.

To be honest Maywald is better than the others an impossible job but she made her own choice.

[redandblack]

I think Maywald has been an effective member, but it's essentially a conservative seat. Being a Minister in a Labor Government was Ok, but not in drought and financially tough times.

[Jimmy_041]

If she does, she'll be getting an earful from me

I will let you all know if its on

[Squawk]

The bigger question for me is, how long before Mike Rann moves aside or is challenged? After 8 years in opposition as leader and now 8 years and counting as Premier, I can see a succession plan coming. Timing likely to be 18-24 months out, but he likes records so without knowing the time served records of all past premiers off the top of my head, I think he will want to position himself as close as possible to Tom Playford who I thought was our longest serving Premier?

Leadership candidates would be Weatherill (Left) and Hill (Right), with Caica (Left) also a future potential leader IMHO. With J-Lo gone, no obvious female Leader springs to mind. Of course, Leadership potential doesn't align to Factional contenders and in the order of precedence, the problem is that there isn't a lot of public appeal for the likes of Foley (2), Holloway (3), Conlon (4) or Atkinson (5). Nor Wright (7). Hill is at 6 and Weatherill 9. (J-Lo was at 8, Karlene at 10). Rankine, Caica, Gago, Koutsantonis and O'Brien run out spots 11-15 consecutively.

At least 2 new Ministers need to be appointed and women will have a strong show. I reckon Portolesi will get one gig if she wins, and another candidate would be Fox. However, John Rau will surely be knocking on the door, and the Factional balance needs to be struck. Maybe Gozu can shed some light on the factional alliances of these people?

The final consideration is - do all current Ministers survive? IMHO, Wright, Rankine and Gago are in the most perilous positions.

As for Chapman, she would be foolish to challenge again. Whether she can help herself or not is another question altogether.

[GWW]

I've heard Hill doesn't have leadership aspirations. I think Weatherill would have to be a strong chance, although is apparently not supported well within the party.

[redden whites]

If she does, she'll be getting an earful from me

I will let you all know if its on

I thought you were not a party member Jimmy? Why would you give a shit?