EPL - The Run In 2009/2010

[devilsadvocate]

WOW It's been quiet in here lately. I miss JTC!

We're getting down to the business end now, so I thought I'd do a run-in thread for the EPL for the Title, 4th spot and Safety.

I posted this a week or so ago in the EPL discussion thread:

Latest Title odds:

MANCHESTER UNITED 1.88
ARSENAL 3.00
CHELSEA 3.50

Interesting that Chelski have slipped so far. With Utd and Arsenal still in Europe, this will play into Chelski's hands to an extent.

Worth a tenner at $3.50 IMO.

The run in:

Man U:

Bolton vs Man Utd MAN U - Win
Man Utd vs Chelsea (This game is CRUCIAL and it is sandwiched in the Champions League tie with Bayern Munchen)
Blackburn vs Man Utd
Man City vs Man Utd
Man Utd vs Tottenham
Sunderland vs Man Utd
Man Utd vs Stoke

Arsenal:

Birmingham vs Arsenal DRAW - Arsenal drop vital points
Arsenal vs Wolverhampton
Tottenham vs Arsenal
Wigan vs Arsenal
Arsenal vs Man City
Blackburn vs Arsenal
Arsenal vs Fulham

Chelski:

Portsmouth vs Chelsea Chelski WIN
Chelsea vs Aston Villa Chelski WIIIIIIIIIIN
Man Utd vs Chelsea
Aston Villa vs Chelsea
Chelsea vs Bolton
Tottenham vs Chelsea
Chelsea vs Stoke
Liverpool vs Chelsea
Chelsea vs Wigan

Looking at the fixtures, Arsenal probably have the easiest run-in on paper and Chelski the toughest, so perhaps this has been factored into Centrebet's odds above.

So, the latest table Top 3 looks like:

Pos Team P Pts
1 Manchester United 32 72
2 Chelsea 32 71
3 Arsenal 32 68

Last weekends results have shifted the betting out to:

MANCHESTER UNITED 1.80
CHELSEA 2.50
ARSENAL 6.00


Man U are obviously still in the box seat. But Arsenal look to have drifted a bit far with the bookies at $6 surely?

[devilsadvocate]

UCL Play-offs qualification:

First of all, here are some interesting stats regarding 4th place (stolen from Spurscommunity.co.uk ):

In the 17 Premiership Seasons to date, the average number of points secured by the team in 4th place has been 67.9. Over the first 10 Seasons (92-02) the average was 68.3 and in the past 10 Seasons (99-09) the average was 67.7, so it doesn’t appear as if time is changing the average number of points achieved by 4th place much, if at all.

However, the average hides a wide variation of 16 points between particular Seasons. The highest number of points earned by 4th was 76 (Liverpool, 07/08). The lowest was 60 (Liverpool, 03/04). Meanwhile, in 12 out of 17 Seasons, the team coming 5th has secured more than 60 points, so enough to have come 4th in 2003-2004. On average 5th place has gained 63 points since the Premiership began.

With that in mind, here's the run home for each of the remaining contenders (Spurs, Man Citeh, Liverpool, Villa and Everton).

Current Standings:

Pos Team P Pts
4 Tottenham Hotspur 31 58
5 Manchester City 31 56
6 Liverpool 32 54
7 Aston Villa 31 51
8 Everton 32 49

Tottenham:

Sunderland v Tottenham
Tottenham v Arsenal
Tottenham v Chelsea
Man Utd v Tottenham
Tottenham v Bolton
Man City v Tottenham
Burnley v Tottenham

Man Citeh:

Burnley v Man City
Man City v Birmingham
Man City v Man Utd
Arsenal v Man City
Man City v Aston Villa
Man City v Tottenham
West Ham v Man City

Liverpool:

Birmingham v Liverpool
Liverpool v Fulham
Liverpool v West Ham
Burnley v Liverpool
Liverpool v Chelsea
Hull v Liverpool

Villa:

Bolton v Aston Villa
Aston Villa v Everton
Portsmouth v Aston Villa
Hull v Aston Villa
Aston Villa v Birmingham
Man City v Aston Villa
Aston Villa v Blackburn

Everton:

Everton v West Ham
Aston Villa v Everton
Blackburn v Everton
Everton v Fulham
Stoke v Everton
Everton v Portsmouth

My thoughts are that Everton are too far back, despite their relatively easy run home compared to the rest. Villa are WAY too inconcistent. They can be excellent and woeful and their result against Chelski on the weekend proves that they are too fragile to claim 4th IMO.

That leaves Liverpool, Man Citeh and Tottenham. With standings the way they are at present, Spurs and Citeh are in the box seat with a game in hand on the Scousers. But Liverpool have an easier run home than Citeh and particularly Spurs. So dropped points by Spurs or Citeh will open the door for Liverpool.

Citeh have 3 crucial games. At home to Utd, away to Arsenil and hom to Villa. Spurs also have 3 crucial games, Home to Arsenil, home to Chelski and away to Yoonited. Then Citeh and Spurs meet in what could be effectively the 4th spot decider. Providing both clubs come through tier 3 'crucial' games in reasonable nic, the penultimate fixture at (Middle)Eastlands promises to be an absolute rip snorter.

And failing that, lets hope the chefs around West Ham remember how to make their special lasagne !!!

IMO, 4th-8th will look like:

4. Tottenham
5. Liverpool
6. Citeh
7. Everton
8. Villa

Hope I'm right

[RoosterMarty]

Some ridiculously massive games between now and the end of the season.

Spurs fighting for a Champs League spot AND with the chance to shape the title race.

I will be hoping Spurs and Liverpool win games as well which is something I can't remember doing before.

[devilsadvocate]

The relegation Run-in:

Current Standings:

Pos Team P Pts
13 Sunderland 32 35
14 Wolverhampton Wanderers 32 32
15 Bolton Wanderers 32 32
16 Wigan Athletic 32 31
17 West Ham United 32 27
18 Hull City 31 27
19 Burnley 32 24
20 Portsmouth 32 13

I think it's fair to say Pompey are relegated. They are a shambles, have injury problems and couldn't score on Hanson Rd at the moment.

The run-home:

Sunderland:

Sunderland v Tottenham
West Ham v Sunderland
Sunderland v Burnley
Hull v Sunderland
Sunderland v Man Utd
Wolves v Sunderland

Wolves:

Arsenal v Wolves
Wolves v Stoke
Fulham v Wolves
Wolves v Blackburn
Portsmouth v Wolves
Wolves v Sunderland

Bolton:

Bolton v Aston Villa
Chelsea v Bolton
Stoke v Bolton
Bolton v Portsmouth
Tottenham v Bolton
Bolton v Birmingham

Wigan:

Fulham v Wigan
Wigan v Portsmouth
Wigan v Arsenal
West Ham v Wigan
Wigan v Hull
Chelsea v Wigan

West Ham

Everton v West Ham
West Ham v Sunderland
Liverpool v West Ham
West Ham v Wigan
Fulham v West Ham
West Ham v Man City

Hull

Stoke v Hull
Hull v Burnley
Birmingham v Hull
Hull v Aston Villa
Hull v Sunderland
Wigan v Hull
Hull v Liverpool

Burnley

Burnley v Man City
Hull v Burnley
Sunderland v Burnley
Burnley v Liverpool
Birmingham v Burnley
Burnley v Tottenham

Hull's destiney is in their own hands, with a game in hand and 3 points behind West Ham. Can Ian Dowie whip them into shape and get a result to drag them out of the relegation zone?

I really think the battle for safety is down to 3 sides. West Ham, Hull and Burnley can still avoid relegation by going on a bit of a run. IMO, Pompey are gone and everyone from Wigan up will survive.

West Ham are their own worst enemy at the moment. Fans, Zola, Players, Owners all seem to believe they're going back down. And the side is playing like they will.

Hull have some quality players, but leak goals. I think with Hull having sacked Brown, they'll go down. Crazy decision to sack Brown IMO.

Finally Burnley. The Clarets looked like scraping enough points together by ensuring Turf Moor was a fortress earlier in the season. Some excellent performances gained enough points early to see them mid table. But then injuries to key midfielders, then JUDAS derailed the whole campaign. Fletcher is not a strikers arsehole and couldn't score herpes from a hooker. Scoring goals has been the Clarets problem all year, and they've let in some unfortunately soft goals too.

Unfortunately, I think Burnley, Hull and Pompey will go down.

P.S. It's sad what's happened at Pompey. Pompey have proper, passionate fans. Their club has been raped and pillaged by shocking management. Let's hope it's a lesson to all other clubs.

[devilsadvocate]

Some ridiculously massive games between now and the end of the season.

Spurs fighting for a Champs League spot AND with the chance to shape the title race.

I will be hoping Spurs and Liverpool win games as well which is something I can't remember doing before.

I just want your lot to thrash the rabble arabs. Please, please, please belt those fantasy football toy boys!!!

Sadly, Man U are the best of a terrible bunch chasing the title, so I actually hope you win the title too.

What a sad state of affairs up top!

4th is the new title!!!!!

[mighty hounds]

arsenal at 6$ is still a good bet. all it take is a win against wolves and a draw between man u and chelsea and the gap will be 2 points between them. so dont discard arsenal. if they lose though i will be discarding them. the title is still a 3 horse race!!!

[devilsadvocate]

arsenal at 6$ is still a good bet. all it take is a win against wolves and a draw between man u and chelsea and the gap will be 2 points between them. so dont discard arsenal. if they lose though i will be discarding them. the title is still a 3 horse race!!!

Nobody's discounting Arsenal on here, only the bookies, hence me saying they've slipped too far IMO. I agree it's still a good bet - I'm very tempted at $6.

You're spot on - at least one of Man U or Chelski has to come off 2nd best after this weekends match. Best result for Arsenal would be a draw or Chelski winning IMO.

Now with Rooney in doubt for Utd, Chelski will have the upper hand.

[mighty hounds]

arsenal at 6$ is still a good bet. all it take is a win against wolves and a draw between man u and chelsea and the gap will be 2 points between them. so dont discard arsenal. if they lose though i will be discarding them. the title is still a 3 horse race!!!

Nobody's discounting Arsenal on here, only the bookies, hence me saying they've slipped too far IMO. I agree it's still a good bet - I'm very tempted at $6.

You're spot on - at least one of Man U or Chelski has to come off 2nd best after this weekends match. Best result for Arsenal would be a draw or Chelski winning IMO.

Now with Rooney in doubt for Utd, Chelski will have the upper hand.

i believe arsenal r only 1 point behind chelsea or are level, or maybe 2 points a chelsea win and arsenal win would be massive! 1 point between them all if thats the case

[devilsadvocate]

arsenal at 6$ is still a good bet. all it take is a win against wolves and a draw between man u and chelsea and the gap will be 2 points between them. so dont discard arsenal. if they lose though i will be discarding them. the title is still a 3 horse race!!!

Nobody's discounting Arsenal on here, only the bookies, hence me saying they've slipped too far IMO. I agree it's still a good bet - I'm very tempted at $6.

You're spot on - at least one of Man U or Chelski has to come off 2nd best after this weekends match. Best result for Arsenal would be a draw or Chelski winning IMO.

Now with Rooney in doubt for Utd, Chelski will have the upper hand.

i believe arsenal r only 1 point behind chelsea or are level, or maybe 2 points a chelsea win and arsenal win would be massive! 1 point between them all if thats the case

Yep. And with Arsenals run home, having them at $6 seems like a gift at this stage.

[mighty hounds]

arsenal at 6$ is still a good bet. all it take is a win against wolves and a draw between man u and chelsea and the gap will be 2 points between them. so dont discard arsenal. if they lose though i will be discarding them. the title is still a 3 horse race!!!

Nobody's discounting Arsenal on here, only the bookies, hence me saying they've slipped too far IMO. I agree it's still a good bet - I'm very tempted at $6.

You're spot on - at least one of Man U or Chelski has to come off 2nd best after this weekends match. Best result for Arsenal would be a draw or Chelski winning IMO.

Now with Rooney in doubt for Utd, Chelski will have the upper hand.

i believe arsenal r only 1 point behind chelsea or are level, or maybe 2 points a chelsea win and arsenal win would be massive! 1 point between them all if thats the case

Yep. And with Arsenals run home, having them at $6 seems like a gift at this stage.

the PP of the north london derby is good i reckon coz i think its after the second leg of the barca match? get a few more days rest

[devilsadvocate]

So, to add further drama to the run-in, we have injuries GALORE:

Arsenal:

Fabregas - Broken Leg and could miss the rest of the season (although there are reports hey may have only aggrevated his knee injury).
Gallas - Calf problem (he was stretchered off) and will miss the rest of the season.
Arshavin - limped off with a leg problem.

Man U:

Rooney - will miss 4 weeks with an ankle strain (misses Chelsea, Bayern, Blackburn, Citeh and Spurs)
Owen - out for the season with an achilles problem.

Chelsea:

I think they have problems with defenders, although it's hard to get any info on who and how long.

Which clears the path for Sputs to come storming home, win the FA cup, win all remaining games and take out the title

[mighty hounds]

So, to add further drama to the run-in, we have injuries GALORE:

Arsenal:

Fabregas - Broken Leg and could miss the rest of the season (although there are reports hey may have only aggrevated his knee injury).
Gallas - Calf problem (he was stretchered off) and will miss the rest of the season.
Arshavin - limped off with a leg problem.

Man U:

Rooney - will miss 4 weeks with an ankle strain (misses Chelsea, Bayern, Blackburn, Citeh and Spurs)
Owen - out for the season with an achilles problem.

Chelsea:

I think they have problems with defenders, although it's hard to get any info on who and how long.

Which clears the path for Sputs to come storming home, win the FA cup, win all remaining games and take out the title

Its been confirmed that fabregas is out for 6 weeks. Gallas is out for the season with a calf and Arshavin for 2-3 weeks with a calf

[Bully]

apparently rooney wont miss alot of games, he will be back for blackburn according to fergie and commentators on Fox sports last night

[johntheclaret]

"Massive" game coming up today at the KC Staduim. Lose and we are dead and buried. Win and we are still in with an outside chance. Outside being the operative word.

[Il Duce]

well JTC your still in with a fight, nice result.

[johntheclaret]

well JTC your still in with a fight, nice result.

West Ham winning hasn't done us any favours though. And we have the toughest run in of all, but we keep on hoping,

[devilsadvocate]

well JTC your still in with a fight, nice result.

West Ham winning hasn't done us any favours though. And we have the toughest run in of all, but we keep on hoping,

Bloody Wet Spam!

Great result though JTC!!
Alexander and McCann. Giddy up!

[johntheclaret]

Well I've just gone through all the remaining games and forecast a score for each. totally unbiased of course

86 Chelsea
--------------
86 Gunners
82 United
70 City
===========
65 Villians
63 Reds
62 Spurs
60 Toffees
52 Brum
51 Fulham
49 Stoke
43 b4st4rds
41 Cats
39 Wolves
36 Bolton
35 Hammers
35 Clarets
-------------
35 Wigan
29 Tigers
18 Pompey

Chelsea will win it on GD after a great effort from Arsenal, whilst United's challenge will drop off this year.
The FA cup semi final loss will devastate Spurs who won't recover and fade particularly as they have the hardest run in out of the top 7.
The 4 - 1 away win for the clarets will be the catalyst for them to go on an unbeaten run drawing at both birmingham and sunderland who both have nothing to play for now, and home wins over Liverpool, who's away record is not good not winnnig in their last eight away, and a last day home win over the alreaddy dejected Spurs.

A resurgent Pompey, bouyed by thier FA Cup semi final win over spurs, will earn a point at Wigan, which will turn out to be the killer blow as they lose heavily at home to Arsenal and away to Chelsea on the last day. Wigan's only comfort will be the home win over Hull

[johntheclaret]

Chelsea will win it on GD after a great effort from Arsenal, whilst United's challenge will drop off this year.
The FA cup semi final loss will devastate Spurs who won't recover and fade particularly as they have the hardest run in out of the top 7.
The 4 - 1 away win for the clarets will be the catalyst for them to go on an unbeaten run drawing at both birmingham and sunderland who both have nothing to play for now, and home wins over Liverpool, who's away record is not good not winnnig in their last eight away, and a last day home win over the alreaddy dejected Spurs.

A resurgent Pompey, bouyed by thier FA Cup semi final win over spurs, will earn a point at Wigan, which will turn out to be the killer blow as they lose heavily at home to Arsenal and away to Chelsea on the last day. Wigan's only comfort will be the home win over Hull

Stage one of my evil plan is complete

[JK]

And I can tell you folks there has been a lot of cunning planning that has gone in to JTC's evil masterpiece (that straight jacket didn't last too long Johnnyboy )