The South Australian Political Landscape

[Jimmy_041]

I still reckon Kouta will be in there
The Tony Abbott of SA
They'll have to bring spittoons back to the House

[bennymacca]

Yep Tom K definitely a huge tool

[heater31]

Yep Tom K definitely a huge tool

And because of a boundary re draw, this wanker now represents me on North Terrace

[Jimmy_041]

I want to know why he dropped out of Uni
I think the people of SA have a right to know
What is he hiding?

Here he is denying the Labor Party was trolling with robocalls

http://blogs.abc.net.au/files/891-breakfast-6.3-1.mp3

........................................ pants on fire

[Look Good In Leather]

With a week to go I will have a crack at how I think it may play out

Assembly
I am not expecting the Liberals to lose any of their existing seats, Adelaide should be held, Dunstan with an increased majority (due to Marshall's profile) and I cannot see Morialta shifting. Van Horst Pellikaan in Stuart is a step too far for the ALP.

In the super marginals - Hartley, Bright and Ashford - it is hard to see the ALP retaining any of these, I am expecting all to be Lib gain.
That will take them to 21 seats in the chamber.

The Liberals have run a massive campaign in Elder behind Carolyn Habib, the ALP in return have only thrown up a repeated failed candidate in Digance. This seat will fall on election night.
Mitchell is harder to read. Again Kris Hanna has thrown his hat in the ring making it a three way race. I would expect most Hanna preferences to go to the ALP which may save Sibbons but the Liberals have thrown a lot at this seat and entered a candidate with a reasonable profile in Corey Wingard. This I think will go down to the wire and will end up a marginal seat for either party as I cannot see Hanna getting higher than 3rd. Too close to call.
Newland, Light and Colton are the three danger seats for the ALP, Newland & Light both have the benefit of sitting ministers. If a swing hits as speculated, I would expect Colton to fall first, the local electorate will see Caica as a dumped minister as having less value as a local member. I think we may see two more Ministers (to join Fox & Portolesi) go in the other two.
That will give the Libs 24 seats, enough to form government in their own right.

The other electorates I think will be interesting:
The battle in Lee between the ALP and Gary Johanson - with no incumbent this suddenly becomes interesting. If Johanson can poll more than the Libs it is his. One to watch.
The Liberals have put a lot into Mawson, this one will be very close. If there is a reasonable swing, this is a big chance to fall. I am going to pick this one to go to the Liberals to take them to 25 seats and another Minister down.
Kaurna has become interesting with the addition of Kym Richardson potentially making this a three way race. The Liberal vote was poor here in 2010 but if Richardson directs his prefs mainly to the Libs this could make this a lot closer. No incumbent for Labor also loses the personal Hill vote that may translate into votes for Richardson. Anything could happen here but I am still leaning to the ALP on this one.
I am expecting the three Independent seats to remain with the incumbents
The only other two seats I can see moving are Florey or Giles. Both I think will be held by the ALP, but if there is a big swing could go.

Overall prediction - Liberal 25, ALP 18 or 19, Independent 3 or 4

Council
Upstairs in the Council I am expecting 4 Liberal, 1 Green (Parnell), 1 Family First (Hood), 3 ALP and John Darley

Looking at the preference distributions The last will be between the ALP and the multitude of Independants & Minors.

The candidates I think have a shot are Kyam Maher (ALP), Esther Simbi (D4D), Mark Henley, Joseph Marsika, Neil Armstrong (Fishing & Lifestyle), Michael Hudson (Shooters & Fishers), Mark Aldridge, Trish Nguyen (Multicultural) & Grantley Siviour (NAT).

Could this finally be Mark Aldridge's turn? The serial candidate has favourable preferences from the LDP, Multicultural Party, Fair Land Tax, Katter, Shooters & Fishers & Your Voice Matters.
The smoky is Mark Henley with strong preferences from the ALP, FREE, D4D, Multicultural Party, Joseph Masika, Legal Euthanasia, Animal Justice, Your Voice Matters and importantly Xenophon.
Interestingly the Nationals And Family First have lodged almost exactly the same ticket.

I am going to tip Esther Simbi (Dignity 4 Disability) to join Kelly Vincent with leftover Xenophon preferences and ALP preferences after Maher and the second Green candidate are elimitated with some reasonable first prefs

[GWW]

I still reckon Kouta will be in there
The Tony Abbott of SA
They'll have to bring spittoons back to the House

Amazingly enough, he's just been out-done by the Liberal Govt Transport Minister in WA (Buswell).

Didn't think it would be possible, but has happened.

[Gozu]

Sounds like Labor has slipped behind in Colton:

A NEW $5.3 million police station will be built at Henley Beach by 2016 if Labor is re-elected on Saturday.

Premier Jay Weatherill announced this morning the building would replace the 1960s station on Military Rd.

“The new police station will increase the emergency response capability, help reduce crime and improve community safety,” Mr Weatherill said.

“The Henley Beach area is very popular, particularly during summer, and it is important that local residents feel safe in their community.”


http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/messenger ... 6850197069

[Look Good In Leather]

Having had another look at the Legislative Council using Antony Green's calculator (http://www.abc.net.au/news/sa-election- ... e-council/), my predictions above are out the window.

Looks like Xenophon team could get two, If Xenophon can poll above 2 quotas, then Dignity 4 Disability (Esther Simbi) comes into play, else they will struggle.

Libs/ALP will struggle to get more than 3 each. Minimal prefs are flowing to the Libs.

Family First should return Hood, but it may take to the last count.
Greens will only get Parnell, not much flowing their way.

The final spot seems to come from one of the following:
Andrew Desyllas (Fair Land Tax - Tax Party)
Trish Nguyen (Multicultural Party)
Mark Henly (Independent Powerful Communities)
Mark Aldridge (Aldridge Alliance)
or Dignity for Disability (if as described above, Xenophon can pull a vote similar to the recent Senate election).

[Dogwatcher]

I hope Aldridge doesn't get in. I really don't.
For a bloke who dislikes the system so much, he's amazingly desperate to get in.

In Light I'm getting mixed feedback on this one. Had an informed Lib tell me the sitting member, Piccolo, is safe on polling. However, the local Libs are very buoyant. I've said all along that it will be tight and it's still looking that way.

[mighty_tiger_79]

I hope Aldridge doesn't get in. I really don't.
For a bloke who dislikes the system so much, he's amazingly desperate to get in.

In Light I'm getting mixed feedback on this one. Had an informed Lib tell me the sitting member, Piccolo, is safe on polling. However, the local Libs are very buoyant. I've said all along that it will be tight and it's still looking that way.

Mark aldridge - he used to get plenty of air time on 5AA when Shaun Perry was there..............oh dear, he just goes on and on and on about issues in which the punters particularly dont care about - rightly or wrongly

[Jimmy_041]

I heard Rankine and Pisoni on ABC this morning
Rankine was appalling - I thought she was going to cry
Pisoni wasn't much better - he would have failed a knowledge test if it wasn't multiple choice
*** help us if either of them are in charge of education

[mighty_tiger_79]

I wish we could have a Frank Underwood

[Ecky]

With a week to go I will have a crack at how I think it may play out
.......

Nice summaries LGIL

I've been following the markets and polls quite closely this time, and even played around with some modelling of possible scenarios using simulations in R.

I agree that Hartley, Bright and Ashford are gone and Labor can't win any of the Liberal seats back.
The two seats that have had the biggest "plunges" in the Sportsbet markets are Mitchell (Lib in to 1.40 from 2.00) and Mt Gambier (Lib now clear favourite where Pegler was the clear favourite before). This suggests that people in the know (i.e. access to internal polling) have bet on these seats, as there haven't been any polls released that back up such a shift.

So if these to go to Lib, then they only need one more seat from a heap of possibilities to get their majority:

Elder, Newland, Colton, Florey, Light, Mawson, Wright, Giles, Frome, Lee etc. (that's my rough order of the chances they will go)

It would seem impossible for Labor/Ind to hold ALL of these, so the current odds of Liberal 1.03 or whatever it is seem to be about right.

As for the upper house, I'm not even going to try to make a prediction - too many unknowns, particularly regarding how high the Xenophon and D4D primary votes will be. Moving these up and down on the ABC calculator can give a very different set of candidates elected each time.

[bennymacca]

are libs really 1.03. wow, i thought it was a bit closer than that. still pretty certainly a lib victory though unfortunately...

[mighty_tiger_79]

are libs really 1.03. wow, i thought it was a bit closer than that. still pretty certainly a lib victory though unfortunately...

yeah they are now. They spoke about it on 5AA this morning, they shortened in from $1.15 i think.......

[Ecky]

are libs really 1.03. wow, i thought it was a bit closer than that. still pretty certainly a lib victory though unfortunately...

yeah they are now. They spoke about it on 5AA this morning, they shortened in from $1.15 i think.......

Yes, and in from $1.30 about 3-4 weeks ago.

[OnSong]

Agree on Aldridge. A strange bloke whose intentions I cannot gauge.

Light tight in the betting ring. Frome should be retained by Brock.

[Jimmy_041]

With a week to go I will have a crack at how I think it may play out
.......

Nice summaries LGIL

I've been following the markets and polls quite closely this time, and even played around with some modelling of possible scenarios using simulations in R.

I agree that Hartley, Bright and Ashford are gone and Labor can't win any of the Liberal seats back.
The two seats that have had the biggest "plunges" in the Sportsbet markets are Mitchell (Lib in to 1.40 from 2.00) and Mt Gambier (Lib now clear favourite where Pegler was the clear favourite before). This suggests that people in the know (i.e. access to internal polling) have bet on these seats, as there haven't been any polls released that back up such a shift.

So if these to go to Lib, then they only need one more seat from a heap of possibilities to get their majority:

Elder, Newland, Colton, Florey, Light, Mawson, Wright, Giles, Frome, Lee etc. (that's my rough order of the chances they will go)

It would seem impossible for Labor/Ind to hold ALL of these, so the current odds of Liberal 1.03 or whatever it is seem to be about right.

As for the upper house, I'm not even going to try to make a prediction - too many unknowns, particularly regarding how high the Xenophon and D4D primary votes will be. Moving these up and down on the ABC calculator can give a very different set of candidates elected each time.

Probably the reason for this announcement:

Regional health boost promised

Labor is promising to boost the number of Country Health SA staff in regional areas, creating hubs at Mount Gambier and Whyalla.

Health Minister Jack Snelling says there are about 100 Adelaide-based Country Health jobs, but only 75 staff based in regional areas.
He says as city jobs become vacant, replacements will be sought for the country offices.
"It's to create opportunities, economic opportunities in Mount Gambier and Whyalla, but as well as that to make sure that people who are making decisions in Country Health as far as possible are located in the country regions," he said.

Trying to prop up Don Pegler in Gambier and the police basher in Whyalla.
Stopping Libs winning Mt Gambier is as important as keeping their own seats inc Giles

[bennymacca]

police basher in Whyalla.

This is what pisses me off about politics. And stupid people lap this shit up too.

[shoe boy]

Look forward to your comments jimmy re marshalls costings Thursday?